主题：局部暴风骤雨将来 -- 胡里糊涂

看到大卫戈德曼最近发了一篇给懂王的公开信。他算是现实主义者吧，起码我认为比米尔斯海默要现实，他算是认识到现今米国的困境，也提出了自己的路线。但是，老实说，现在属于无力回天的地步。

Dear President Trump:

Congratulations on your November election victory. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have left you with a strategic disaster and a fragile economy, but you have put forward a program to keep the peace and restore economic growth. Here are some ideas that may help in your efforts, followed by more specific proposals:

祝贺您在 11 月选举中获胜。总统乔·拜登和副总统卡马拉·哈里斯给你们留下了战略灾难和脆弱的经济，但你们却提出了维持和平和恢复经济增长的计划。以下是一些可能对您的努力有所帮助的想法，然后是更具体的建议：

Inflation is closer to 8% than the official “3%” after figuring in higher interest costs to consumers. Biden started this inflation by running record budget deficits and the Federal Reserve made it worse by increasing the interest burden on consumers. You must educate the American public on this reality and get the right people in place to fix it.

考虑到消费者更高的利息成本后，通货膨胀率比官方的“3%”更接近 8%。拜登通过创纪录的预算赤字引发了通货膨胀，而美联储则通过增加消费者的利息负担使情况变得更糟。你必须让美国公众了解这一现实，并安排合适的人来解决这个问题。

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点评：印钱是懂王上一任期开始的，和疫情有关，这疫情就是米国特务机关搞的。懂王自己先挑起反华游戏，大家都不敢对华说一句软话，那会被说卖国，因此懂规拜随，关税也不敢降，通胀活该。

The federal budget deficit is 6.4% of GDP, “larger than any deficit in records going back to 1930 except the years around World War II, the 2008 financial crisis, and the pandemic,” according to the Tax Foundation. Federal interest costs have doubled and now cost as much as defense. Get people on the Fed board who understand your economic agenda.

根据税收基金会的数据，联邦预算赤字占 GDP 的 6.4%，“比 1930 年以来有记录的任何赤字都要大，除了二战前后、2008 年金融危机和新冠疫情期间之外”。联邦利息成本增加了一倍，现在与国防成本一样高。让美联储董事会成员了解你的经济议程。

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点评：联储当然知道危机，鲍威尔刚才降息25点，就是给懂王意思一下，懂王要是不够意思，联储就不好意思了。

Our woke education system is a disaster and has betrayed working-class kids. We can’t fill skilled jobs in manufacturing because high school graduates lack basic math skills. In the short term, state community college systems and work-study apprenticeship programs can help. Create a federal-state initiative for public-private partnerships in manufacturing skills, and ask Governor Ron DeSantis to head it.

我们觉醒的教育体系是一场灾难，背叛了工人阶级的孩子。我们无法填补制造业的技术岗位，因为高中毕业生缺乏基本的数学技能。在短期内，州立社区大学系统和勤工俭学学徒计划可以提供帮助。制定一项联邦州倡议，促进制造技能领域的公私合作伙伴关系，并请州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯 (Ron DeSantis) 领导该倡议。

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点评：因果是这样的，先是米国经济去工业化，然后教育跟着市场走，没有工程师职位学啥数理化，那么费脑子的。实在需要还有外国学生顶上。没见硅谷阿三化了嘛。

Vice President-elect J D Vance offered a workable peace plan in September to end the Russo-Ukrainian war. Give him a big role in handling the Ukraine problem. Leftovers from the foreign policy establishment in your first administration did nothing but sandbag you. Don’t listen to them and put a smart outsider in charge instead.

当选副总统万斯 (J D Vance) 于 9 月提出了一项可行的和平计划，以结束俄乌战争。让他在处理乌克兰问题上发挥重要作用。第一届政府外交政策机构的残余除了耍你之外什么也没做。不要听他们的，而是让一个聪明的局外人来负责。

The US military-industrial complex is a hopeless morass of corruption and incompetence that can’t make enough artillery shells to supply Ukraine, let alone enough submarines. Bypass the Pentagon brass and the defense contractors and choose a secretary of defense who understands new defense technologies.

美国军工联合体是一个腐败和无能的绝望泥沼，无法制造足够的炮弹来供应乌克兰，更不用说足够的潜艇了。绕过五角大楼的高层和国防承包商，选择一位了解新国防技术的国防部长。

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点评：人家是一个复合体，个人怎么对抗组织？

Your proposal to put high tariffs on Chinese EV imports but allow Chinese companies to build plants in the US is brilliant—and very much like Ronald Reagan’s response to Japanese auto imports in the 1980s.

您对中国电动汽车进口征收高关税但允许中国企业在美国建厂的提议非常出色，这与 20 世纪 80 年代罗纳德·里根 (Ronald Reagan) 对日本汽车进口的反应非常相似。

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点评：时代不同了，不搞死金融业，怎么可能重建制造业？

An America First Economic Policy

Biden and Harris left you with record debts and deficits, and a dangerous household debt burden. Their reckless spending on handouts to their favored constituencies caused this inflation, not monetary policy, as David Malpass observed.

拜登和哈里斯给你留下了创纪录的债务和赤字，以及危险的家庭债务负担。正如戴维·马尔帕斯（David Malpass）所观察到的那样，他们不计后果地向自己喜欢的选民发放救济品，导致了通货膨胀，而不是货币政策。

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点评：懂王先发钱的。

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates too low for too long and then raised them too much. Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers showed that the real inflation rate is double the official number after including higher interest rates. Ask him to help the Bureau of Labor Statistics publish the real inflation rate.

美联储将利率维持在过低水平太长时间，然后又大幅提高利率。前财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯表示，考虑到更高的利率后，实际通胀率是官方数字的两倍。请他帮助劳工统计局公布实际通胀率。

You need a stable monetary policy instead of the Fed’s boom-and-bust whipsaw. Put people on the Federal Reserve Board who understand how monetary policy actually works instead of the ideologues who run the Fed today.

你需要稳定的货币政策，而不是美联储的繁荣与萧条的锯齿状政策。让那些了解货币政策实际运作方式的人进入美联储，而不是让当今管理美联储的理论家进入美联储。

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点评：想去金融化？懂王任期就四年，考虑不了那么多。联储给你个好看，然后中期选举就完蛋。

The biggest obstacle to industrial revival is the lack of skilled labor, thanks to the liberals who control US education. Summon the CEOs of our biggest manufacturing companies, and they’ll tell you the same thing: less than a quarter of US high school students are proficient in math. That puts high-end jobs in computer-controlled manufacturing out of their reach.

工业复兴的最大障碍是缺乏熟练劳动力，这要归功于控制美国教育的自由派。召集我们最大的制造公司的首席执行官，他们会告诉你同样的事情：不到四分之一的美国高中生精通数学。这使得计算机控制制造业的高端工作超出了他们的能力范围。

We can fix the problem by enlisting state community college systems in partnership with corporations. Florida already has the ball rolling. Ask Governor Ron DeSantis to head an emergency effort to train skilled workers.

我们可以通过让州立社区大学系统与企业合作来解决这个问题。佛罗里达州已经开始行动了。要求州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯领导一项紧急工作，培训技术工人。

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点评：远水不解近渴，懂王就四年，先报仇，然后安排继承人，没了。

For the first time in American history, America imports more capital goods than we produce for domestic consumption. The downside of tariffs is that they will increase costs for manufacturers who rely on foreign inputs, and domestic substitutes will take time and money to provide. You might propose a tariff rebate for American manufacturers who buy Chinese capital goods to expand production in the US.

美国历史上第一次进口的资本货物（机器，设备，工具等）多于我们为国内消费生产的资本货物。关税的缺点是，它们会增加依赖外国投入的制造商的成本，而国内替代品需要时间和金钱来提供。您可能会建议为购买中国资本货物以扩大在美国生产的美国制造商提供关税退税。

The tax system is rigged against capital-intensive investment, raising the after-tax cost of capital for manufacturing. America’s stock of manufacturing equipment hasn’t risen in 20 years according to the Federal Reserve.

税收制度针对资本密集型投资进行了操纵，从而提高了制造业的税后资本成本。根据美联储的数据，美国的制造设备存量已经 20 年来没有增加。

To return to a long-term growth trend, we need about $1 trillion in capital spending. GOP leaders in Congress should propose emergency legislation to allow immediate tax write-offs of capital equipment.

为了恢复长期增长趋势，我们需要大约1万亿美元的资本支出。国会共和党领导人应提出紧急立法，允许立即冲销资本设备的税收。

The 2017 corporate tax cut, which increased the number of years required to expense capital equipment, should be revised to allow immediate expensing of capital equipment. That may be a bigger stimulus for domestic manufacturing than tariffs.

2017 年的企业减税增加了资本设备支出所需的年数，应进行修订，以允许立即支出资本设备。这对国内制造业的刺激可能比关税更大。

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点评：减税，减税，都减税，那么国家运行的钱从哪来呢？关税就算增加100%，也不过千亿规模吧，还不是得大印钱？这和前面要少印钱又矛盾了。