主题：【原创】奔向复苏或者奔向危机的2007 -- 葡萄

Energy policy will be a key factor in the new world order. The new generally accepted “fair price” for oil of $40-60 per barrel will stimulate serious capital investment in alternative, “borderline cost-efficient” fuels. Among these are GTL—gas-to-liquid—which renders small gas and gas-condensate fields located far from consumers economically viable; technologies for turning coal into motor fuels and for gasification of coal underground, which will give many old coal-producing regions a new lease of life; and, on the American continent, huge reserves of underground heat sources may be deserving of a serious look.

But even if work begins in all these directions, as well as towards improving energy efficiency in industry and homes and the use of various small-scale alternative sources of energy, we cannot forget that the economies of developing countries will continue to grow, meaning there will not be any reduction in energy prices in the near and medium term. The year ahead will show which strategy the developed countries are going to choose to work their way out of their looming energy crisis.

1. Reindustrialisation based on a “new competitiveness” deriving from an energy-efficiency advantage over the industry of China and other developing countries.

2. New colonial wars—this time for energy resources.

3. New leadership: abandonment of the model of increasing material consumption in favour of improvement in the quality of life, an increase in the intellectual component of the consumer basket.

Strategically speaking, only the third way holds promise for the future. Human nature is extremely conservative, and there is of course a strong desire to postpone making such a radical decision. But this is not possible—the decision will be made in 2007. Whether we are aware of it or not, the direction for the next decade or more is going to be decisively set.