主题：【欧洲经济】ECB的04-05预期 -- 西风陶陶

ECB Sees Economic Growth Accelerating, Person Says (Update1)

March 8 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank expects economic growth in the dozen nations sharing the euro to accelerate to 2.7 percent in 2006, a pace not seen since 2000, according to a person who has seen the forecasts.

Projections from the bank's economic department predict the euro economy will expand 1.5 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2005, the person said, who spoke on condition of anonymity. In December, the bank had forecast growth of 1.6 percent and 2.4 percent. The ECB says the region's economy can grow 2 percent to 2.5 percent before boosting inflation.

The bank lowered its inflation forecast for both years by 0.1 percentage point, averaging 1.7 percent in 2004 and 1.5 percent in 2005, the person said. For 2006, the bank's staff see the inflation rate rising to 1.6 percent. ECB spokeswoman Regina Schueller declined to comment on the figures.

``Their central scenario points to a prolonged status quo on rates,'' said Kenneth Wattret, an economist at BNP Paribas SA in London. ``They still believe the recovery will continue. Inflation, based on the numbers they are giving us, is still in line with their objective'' to keep the annual pace of consumer price increases below and close to 2 percent.

Rates Unchanged

The ECB on Thursday left the benchmark lending rate unchanged at 2 percent, the lowest since at least 1946, saying the recovery from last year's slowest expansion in a decade remains on track. German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder was among the politicians that called on the bank to lower rates to stem the euro's appreciation.

``Our main scenario of a continued gradual recovery in the course of 2004 and 2005 remains valid,'' ECB President Jean- Claude Trichet said Thursday, after the 18-member governing council discussed the new forecasts. The outlook for inflation is ``favorable,'' he said.

The ECB only publishes its growth and inflation forecasts twice a year, in June and December. Those predictions are drawn up by ECB staff and employees of the 12 national central banks together. Separately, ECB staff update the forecasts twice a year. Those forecasts aren't published.

The ECB's growth forecasts are ``optimistic,'' Wattret said. For 2004, the bank's forecast is ``achievable.'' Attaining the predicted growth levels in 2005 and 2006 may be challenging because ``it has been a relatively rare occurrence for growth in the euro area to grow more than 2 percent,'' he said.

Euro Forecast

The euro was little changed after Thursday's decision. The single currency has gained 13 percent in the past year and reached $1.2930 on Feb. 18, the highest since the currency's introduction in 1999. It was trading at $1.2366 at 3:33 p.m. in Frankfurt today.

The bank's updated forecasts foresee a euro rate of $1.26 for 2004 and 2005, compared with the $1.17 forecast in December.

The euro's gains makes exports from the euro region more expensive and hurts companies' earnings denominated in the U.S. currency. Nokia Oyj, the world's largest mobile phone maker, and Alcatel SA, the world's biggest maker of broadband equipment, are among the companies to say the euro's gains hurt business.

Growth in the euro region slowed in the fourth quarter to 0.3 percent as exports increased at a 10th of the pace of the previous three months, the European Union's statistics office said last week. That compares with 1 percent expansion in the U.S. and 1.7 percent growth in Japan in the same period.

Pessimistic Consumers

Europe's economy is relying on exports to spur growth as consumers keep a rein on spending at a time when unemployment stays at a four-year high. The number of jobless people in Germany rose for a second month in February and Italian consumers were the most pessimistic in a decade.

At the press conference following the rate decision, Trichet was asked if the bank had lowered its internal growth forecasts. ``We do not downgrade anything,'' he said. ``We see the recovery to be gradual. There is nothing new in this observation.''

Compared with the December forecasts, the ECB now sees the effective exchange rate, which plots the euro against the currencies of 12 major trading partners, 3.6 percent higher in 2004 and 2005, the person said. The forecast for the oil price priced in dollars has been raised by 3 percent.

The bank has also lowered its forecast for inflation excluding energy, projecting 2 percent this year, 1.7 percent in 2005 and 1.8 percent in 2006, the person said.

To contact the reporter on this story:

Emma Vandore, or [email protected].

To contact the editors of this story:

Heather Harris, or [email protected]

Chris Kirkham, or [email protected].

Last Updated: March 8, 2004 09:38 EST