主题：del -- MRandson
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家园 my fear too 收准备金。对小企业来讲，又是一场 收准备金。对小企业来讲，又是一场浩劫，又是一场失业潮
Fed is effectively forcing China to appreciate yuan or face a social turmoil if the gov. sticks to the current policies.
家园 On the other hand 我这次回国的观察是，即使在目前的汇率下，中国省会级别城市的物价已经达到美国1/2甚至2/3的水平（这还不算奢侈品，奢侈品一贯是美国比中国便宜）。我很怀疑如果物价汇率两个都涨的情况下，中国的低工资竞争力能维持多长时间。
家园 two years ago when I was back to Shanghai. I notice that there has been little difference in terms of food price between Shanghai and second-tier east-coast US cities. I mean processed food or restaurant food. Raw material, such as rice, was still cheaper then in China due to strict gov. control.
But service is still much more expensive in US than in China.
Hyper inflation is going to change that soon.
Global convergence of goods price has been reached since there is almost perfect free movement of goods and very low transaction costs between the U.S. and China.
But global salary divergence persists because there is no free movement of labor at all between the U.S. and China.
家园 Next time... when Obama talks about rebalancing, tell him to open up the US border. After quater of a billion Chinese have moved across the Pacific, rebalancing will be done.
家园 then you only get the richest and smartest Chinese, you will still not be able to rebalance so long as there is the green card selection process.
Nobody will be stupid enough to give up border control and absorb the poor group from another country. But on the other side, America is very cunning in that its border is very open to rich people from any country.
家园 You're right, but here's the point. Obama is asking China to do something for the US that only the most naive in China would do. Now if the Americans accept `rebalancing' as necessary, then any ligitimate measure to eliminate the cause of this great imbalance should be discussed and considered.
The question is of course, what kind of measure is ligitimate and what's not. Given that all human are created equal and freedom is the single most important value, I should argue that the rebalancing of sino-US population is not only ligitmate but also the right path to follow. A great and responsible country like the United States must not violate the born human right of anyone seeking a better life under the excuse of border control, which in itself is expensive, ineffective and unnecessary...
We all know free market is good and one generally shouldn't fear competition on a level ground. Once 300 million Chinese immigrants are in the states, a new level ground will be created in both countries. America will have enough hardworking workers to promote manufactoring in the US. China on the other hand, will have more incentive to attract workers with better living standards, hence consume more.
I can go on with the benefits of population rebalancing. But I guess you've already seen the point. Of course neither Obama or the Congress will buy this. But why should China and the rest of the world buy their argument? Which is equally very thin on operatability and popularity. It's not about actually addressing the imbalance, but simply a way of fighting a propaganda war.
家园 I see your point Agree. No need to rebalance the trade in a short period of time, but the U.S. will not be able to absorb more overcapacity in China and China is holding lots of greenbacks in the form of treasury notes. If the current situation continues through the next 10 years, American default is inevitable and China does not benefit any more under the current system. When overcapacity has no end consumers, China will experience what America did in 1929.
What I am proposing is that China SHOULD THINK ABOUT changing the current global financial system. Elites SHOULD THINK LONG TERM FOR THE NATION AND WORLD. Childish complaint does not fix problems.
Either China and the whole world can switch to gold-based system so that trade deficit could not continue forever for one nation or we add something like SDR so that domestic monetary policies will be separate from global financial payments, thus Fed can not damage other nations while it stimulates its own economy (and trade deficit can still accumulate). In the meantime, China should seriously consider domestic FDR -styled reform so that domestic Chinese can really enjoy the MATERIAL benefits from economic growth rather than just accumulate more useless paper money.
I was back in Shanghai in 2008. I have to admit that most average Joes did not benefit from last 10year's golden age in China at all.
WE NEED TO THINK ABOUT practical solutions--finger pointing will not solve the dilemma.
I never take Obama seriously. He is a puppet for sure. He is just doing what his masters are asking him to do. I like Republicans more than Demos. Demos are too hypocritical.
My worry is that currency war might lead to trade war, trade war brings everybody into big deep depression and then we will see new dictators and nationalism.
In the end, we will see deja vu of 1930s and WWII and final destruction of this earth for every human being.
Do not assume the history does not repeat itself. To be frank, ever since the world switches to Bretton Wood II in 1973, the financial system became more and more unstable for the world (frequency of financial crisis).
The 2007 crisis is somewhat the deja vu of 1980s' S&L crisis. The pity is that most Americans already had vague memory of that crisis.
家园 物价接轨的速度蛮快啊。
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家园 嗯，给点操作建议啊…… 占通胀，卢瑟同志们该如何处理
有点小钱，有套小房的卢瑟该怎么办？