主题：欧洲讨饭记1 -- parishg
家园 最近正在看Hank Paulson的自传 我看里面讲到，英国财政部直接干涉巴克莱银行并购雷曼兄弟的行动，使雷曼失去了(除破产之外)最后的机会。感觉Paulson的叙述中有一点英国人落井下石的意味。
现在想起来美国对2008年的危机还是做了充分准备的，在2006年挑选了首席投行CEO保尔森和号称直升飞机本的伯南克分别担任财长和联储主席。要不是有这样真正的专业人士在危机关头的杀伐决断，只怕更多的金融机构在2008年Q4就不复存在了。
家园 Britons are fence sitting.
Euro stronger--Britons talk about integration with Europe
Euro close to collapse-Britons are cutting off bank lending to European banks fast, just as they are doing now.
In 2008, Britons are more pro-Europe than pro-America. Now is the reverse.
在2006年挑选了首席投行CEO保尔森和号称直升飞机本的伯南克分别担任财长和联储主席。
--Hank is the godfather of the internal circle. You can sense that. Hank and Tim were both from Dartmouth. As a senior leader, Hank overruled Tim several times during the 2008 crisis period. Even now, Hank was often invited back to deal with tricky fiscal issue.
Tim still lacks commanding power in that circle. He works too long in the regulatory circle.
Hank is the bridge for sino-Americana alliance.
The message from Hank's book is very simple: Bush is puppet and he listens to me on financial issues.
Obama refused to be puppet and then realized that orders from his White House never got attention from Tim.
家园 我最近又把绿锅自传翻出来看了几段 就是我翻译了第十四章的那本。绿锅访华，见了朱前相，当然更见了温相，那是2005年10月。
我记得我编了一段绿锅见二相的说书，不过实在找不到在哪里了，肯定不在《煮酒论雄》系列里，所以太难找出来了。
总之，我的看法，最迟2005年，美国方面已经很清楚，非爆不可，只是时间问题了。正是绿锅这一次访华后，中国开始增加两房债权的买入，以延缓美国的爆炸，拖到2008奥运之后。
家园 延缓美国的爆炸 and then collapse fa fast and suddenly to hit all European banks who shorted heavily against American institutions and USD. hahaha.
Hank is a genius. Margin calls killed so many hedge funds/banks that borrow USD to long on Euroland and Emerging markets.
家园 还是有那么一点困惑 九月十五号雷曼宣布倒闭之后，过了整整两个礼拜美元才开始反转，这两个礼拜汉克保尔森用什么手段打击了欧洲银行？难道是欧洲人以为美国人一定会印钞票救雷曼，所以开了庞大的美元空仓？
家园 check LIBOR USD LIBOR USD o/n on Sep 14/15, 30
and LIBOR 1m/3m after Sept 14.
Hank's decision hit money multiplier. People are afraid of lending and borrowing. Multiplier fell from 9 to 6.8 fast.
欧洲人以为美国人一定会印钞票救雷曼，所以开了庞大的美元空仓
--actually many Asians, all Europeans and some smart American money managers all expect American dollars will slowly lose its dominant reserve status by printing money fast to further bailout more key institutions.
家园 But after a while Hank showed them who is the Boss...
家园 So, gold and usd will increase parallely?
家园 换句话说 美国让雷曼兄弟倒闭，把全世界都拖进了资金链断裂的噩梦中，然后再用自己独一无二的美元给自己加血，有选择性的给别人加血？
按照你的看法德国人应该做什么呢？
- 复 欧洲讨饭记1
家园 国债要以海关税做抵押 家园 关税不好 学袁世凯，用盐税。