主题：【原创】60%的外贸依存度和抗日风潮 -- 汉关秦月

我的想法：

1. 外贸依存度，可以是横向比较，也可以是纵向比较。新加坡的例外（新加坡本来是一个贸易中转港)不能就简单说外贸依存度没有意义。

2. 所谓的全球化,以及加入WTO等等对中国的影响,我觉得中国的得失难以预料.以中国目前的产业结构状况,我们能看到的是中国输出了便宜的劳力,和环境资源等,输入的更多是国外的高价值高技术产品和服务.而全球化可能维持和加剧这种对中国国民不利的结构.如果中国不能改善自身的产业结构,提高技术含量,中国还将是别人的经济殖民地.

3.抵制日货,过于片面.完整的表述应该是抵制日货,发展国货.如果不买日本货,转而买美国货,欧洲货对中国本身并没太大改变(经济上).抵制日货,同时也必须发展国货.当然有人说国产货质量不好,没法支持.不过当年日本车起步的时候也很烂阿,没有日本人的支持,怎么能发展到今天?(题外话: 想到中国的铁路项目就是气---化几百亿去买别人的技术,为什么不用这些钱发展自己的技术?难道真的等不及了吗?花钱买外交吗?外交是凭实力来的,不是花钱能买来的.不要看中国好像财大气粗,拿钱来砸法国德国英国,那些钱都是中国普通人的血汗钱,有多少可以来花钱销灾呢?结果到现在还不是一场空.)

4.抵制日货有用吗?我觉得有用.只不过在这种战争中,中日的地位不一样.如果中国能抓住机会同时发展自身的话,对中国来说还是有益处的.

团结才会有力量.大家都坚持下去,日本人才会害怕的.

下面的文章可以参考一下.

China's low-cost labor lures Japanese firms

By Paul Wiseman

DONGGUAN, China ― Nervous Japanese called it "the China Syndrome" ― the fear that cheap Chinese labor would spell doom for corporate Japan. How could Japanese factories compete with Chinese rivals that paid workers one-thirtieth as much?

But these days, China's lower costs are looking less like a threat and more like salvation to Japanese companies desperate to regain a competitive edge in world markets. At first reluctantly, but now with gusto, Japanese executives are descending on Chinese boomtowns like this one across the border from Hong Kong, spending their nights crooning into the karaoke machines of local bars and their days scouring the industrial landscape for factories they can do business with. Canon, NEC, Honda and other big Japanese manufacturers are spending billions to put up plants in China, usually with local partners. Japanese investment in China this year could shatter last year's record $4.6 billion. Largely because relocated Japanese factories in China are busy sending products back to Japan, China quietly surpassed the USA as the No. 1 exporter to Japan in the first nine months of this year.

Shifting production overseas isn't new to Japanese manufacturers. They moved factories to Southeast Asia, the USA and other nations in the '90s. Japan has shed 3 million manufacturing jobs since 1990, when it fell into an economic slump from which it hasn't recovered. But after a brief China investment boom in the mid-'90s, Japan grew wary about doing business with a historic rival it sees as an economic threat.

For good reason, Japanese executives saw China as a backwater that could crank out cheap toys but make few sophisticated products. They worried about getting ripped off by Chinese partners; about seeing their best technology stolen and used against them by Chinese competitors; about shoddy Chinese-made goods that wouldn't meet the standards of persnickety Japanese consumers; about a capricious and corrupt communist government that changed the rules of business without warning. They even had to worry about personal safety: In the '90s, Chinese kidnapping rings preyed on foreign executives in coastal factory towns such as Dongguan.

Those worries haven't been banished. But China has gone a long way toward reassuring Japanese investors that its politics are stable, its streets safe and, most important, its factories competitive.

"In the past two years, the number of factories that have been able to find (an acceptable) level of quality has increased dramatically," says Takanori Ohara, executive director of Ad-Forest, an Osaka, Japan, firm that makes home and car alarm systems. "This wasn't an overnight change but a slow buildup over a number of years."

The transformation

Ohara has witnessed the transformation firsthand. One of his early experiences in China proved disastrous. As an executive for a Japanese electronic-games manufacturer in the mid-1990s, he placed a big order for handheld computer games with a Chinese factory. His supplier substituted Chinese computer chips for the Taiwanese chips he had specified, resulting in 50,000 defective games.

Back then, Chinese firms were out for quick cash, partly because they didn't know if their government would shut down the economic reforms that opened China to trade and investment in the early '80s. Ripping off Japanese was also sweet for those with memories of Japan's occupation before and during World War II.

Now, Chinese are more confident that economic reform is here for good, and more factory managers know that staying in business means satisfying customers, whether they're Japanese or not. The Chinese also have benefited from an influx of investment from Taiwan. Taiwanese, fleeing rising costs back home, are relocating entire companies to the Chinese mainland, bringing with them advanced technology and management expertise China lacks.

As Chinese factories improve, Japanese companies are under increasing pressure to cut costs. Japan shows no sign of pulling out of its economic slump; prices fall month after month, squeezing profit margins. Japanese consumers, once suspicious of foreign goods, now are willing to seek bargains. The Uniqlo clothing chain, for instance, rose to prominence in Japan by offering made-in-China clothes at a fraction of the price of Japanese-made garments.

"The environment has changed in both countries," says Joe Law, a Japanese-speaking Hong Kong consultant who helps companies from Japan set up shop in China.

The China advantage has worked for Ohara's Ad-Forest. Two years ago, it was struggling as an operator of fitness centers and karaoke clubs in Japan. The company ditched the exercise bikes and sing-along machines and started making car and home security systems in China for export to Japan. China's low costs, combined with popular products, worked: In the fiscal year ended March 31, Ad-Forest's profits rose fourfold.

Ad-Forest has plenty of company in China. In July, Honda announced it would put up a plant with two Chinese partners in Guangzhou near here to build and export small cars. Nissan has revealed plans to start building cars next year in a joint venture in central Hubei Province. Canon began making laser printers in Zhongshan in southern China last year, and this year is opening a copier complex near Shanghai. Pioneer aims to develop car audio equipment and DVD players in Shanghai. Electronics giant NEC plans to make 80% of its projectors in China, up from 50% now. NEC says producing projectors in China's Guangdong Province, instead of Nagano, Japan, will cut costs 20%.

Chinese companies and government agencies are eager to make the Japanese feel at home. In Dongguan, Chinese developers are clearing land for a 40-acre industrial park known as Little Japan. It will offer tenants access to Japanese-speaking accountants and lawyers along with a hotel furnished with the tatami mats and low tables Japanese business people are used to back home.

Japanese in China tend to live, work and party together. Restaurants, karaoke clubs and golf courses catering to Japanese businessmen are sprouting across southern China. Some Chinese prostitutes learn to speak Japanese and make themselves up to look like the young women who shop in Tokyo's ritzy Ginza district.

A growing number of Japanese companies see China as more than a production base. They want to sell products here, too. Their hopes are linked to China's recent entry into the World Trade Organization, which requires it to dismantle trade barriers that have kept foreign products out. Tumbling auto tariffs, for example, sent Japanese auto imports to China surging 61% the first half of this year.

Selling to the Chinese market has been perilous for foreign companies. Among other dangers, they can fall victim to copycat Chinese firms that sell lookalike items. Local courts and government officials, who sometimes have ties to pirate companies, often look the other way. But Japanese firms were heartened by a surprise legal victory in August: A Beijing court awarded Yamaha nearly $110,000 from a copycat motorcycle maker. Honda is pursuing a similar case.

The Sino-Japanese trade relationship can still be tense. Japan worries that low-cost Chinese imports will wreck local companies. Last year, Japan blocked imports of Chinese tatami mats, mushrooms and onions, and China retaliated by shutting down imports of Japanese autos in a dispute that lasted months. This year, China is complaining about Japanese steel imports, and Japan has barred imports of Chinese spinach, alleging that it failed health inspections. "Popeye is crying," quips economist Chi Hung Kwan, senior fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry in Tokyo.

"Such disputes will keep happening," as the two countries adjust uneasily to their economic interdependence, predicts Masaki Yabuuchi, chief of the China division for the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), a Japanese government agency.

But economist Kwan, a Hong Kong native who's spent his career in Japan, says Japanese fears of China are overblown. It's easy to pay too much attention to China's cheap labor: True, Chinese workers ― who usually make less than $100 a month ― earn just 3% of Japanese and 2% of U.S. wages. But because they tend to be poorly educated, use obsolete machines and toil for inefficient state-owned companies, they're far less productive. Chinese productivity is just 3% of U.S. levels and 4% of Japan's.

Kwan argues that Japan and China don't compete head-to-head because Japan specializes in more advanced products. He says Japan and China compete in just 16% of product lines. China and its impoverished Southeast Asian neighbor Indonesia, by contrast, compete in 83%. (Nor should the USA be worried about being replaced as No. 1 exporter to Japan; few U.S. firms compete head-to-head with Chinese exporters in Japan.)

For now, Kwan says, China is best at assembling sophisticated components made elsewhere. He distinguishes between two kinds of goods. First, there are those "made in China" with technology shipped in from a more advanced country; then, there are products "made by China" with Chinese intellectual capital and raw materials. "Take a $1,000 computer," Kwan says. "If you take away the Intel CPU and the plasma monitor made in Japan, not much would be left (to be) 'made by China.' "

China faces a critical shortage of management, marketing and technological expertise. Japanese firms that set up factories in China usually continue to handle research and development, product design, marketing and quality control. Ad-Forest's Ohara figures it will take another decade before Japanese companies can entrust sophisticated design work to Chinese firms.

Economists say it makes sense for Japanese companies to focus on the complicated stuff and let China handle labor-intensive assembly jobs. Companies trying to compete in high-cost Japan might have no choice but to consider China as their workshop. "They have to go or die," says consultant Joe Law.

我喝啤酒，基本上只要有青岛卖的地方就只喝青岛。这个口感还是最好。日本人的投资眼光够毒的。

尽管日本方面的统计显示了日本经济正在向中国转移，但中国方面的统计表明中国经济

正在与日本渐行渐远。这种非对称性恰恰反映了中国经济的飞速发展和日本经济的萧条

中国作为贸易大国正在迅速崛起。 2004年中国的进出口总额比前一年增长35.7%，达

11547亿美元。由此，中国的进出口规模双双超过日本，成为仅次于美国和德国的世界

第三大贸易国。

在中国飞速发展之下，日本对华贸易依存度迅速提高，而在日本占世界经济比重下降的

情况下，在中国眼中，日本的重要性相对下降。

尽管中日两国政治关系较冷，但日本对华贸易一直持续保持旺盛势头。据财务省发表的

2004年贸易统计速报显示，日本对中国内地和中国香港的进出口贸易总额占其整体对外

贸易的20.1%，首次超过对美贸易（18.6%）。今后日本贸易有望继续向中国转移，早则

在今年内，即使不包括香港在内，中国也将超过美国成为日本的最大贸易伙伴。

但是，这种从日本看来日益亲密的中日贸易关系，在中国看来却在降温。2004年中国对

日贸易的增长率（25.7%）低于其他国家（其中，对欧盟为33.6%，对美国为34.3%，对

韩国为42.5%）。而且，这种倾向并不是最近才呈现出来的。自上世纪 90年代后期以

来，对日贸易占中国对外贸易的比重一直呈下降趋势。日本迄今一直是中国最大的贸易

伙伴，然而，2004年却被欧盟和美国甩在了后面，沦为第三位。

因此，尽管日本方面的统计显示了日本经济正在向中国转移，但中国方面的统计表明中

国经济正在与日本渐行渐远。这种非对称性恰恰反映了中国经济的飞速发展和日本经济

的萧条。中国作为生产基地和最终产品的市场，其规模正在不断扩大，为了抓住这一商

机，世界各国都在增加对华贸易。从日本看，虽然对华贸易的增长高于其他地区，但由

于不及中国贸易整体的扩大幅度，因此在中国眼里的日本地位相对下降了。实际上，不

仅对中国而言，对其他国家而言，日本作为贸易伙伴的重要性都已经大不如前。

看一下从“贸易依存度”扣除了对象国在世界贸易中所占比重这一规模因素之后的“贸

易结合度”，就可以更清楚地发现中日经济关系已经冷却。这里所说的贸易结合度，定

义如下：A国对B国的贸易结合度＝（A国对B国进出口总额／A国对世界的进出口总额）

／（B国对世界的进出口总额／世界的进出口总额）

按照这一公式，我们计算一下中国对日贸易结合度和日本对华贸易结合度，就会发现它

们在上世纪90年代后期以来都呈现下降趋势。这表明一方面中国对日贸易依存度以超过

日本占世界贸易比重的缩小幅度下降，另一方面尽管日本对华贸易依存度在提高，却不

及中国在世界贸易中所占份额的扩大幅度。也许日趋冷却的政治关系已经对经济关系造

成了恶劣影响，从以往的贸易结合度的变化来判断，可以说不仅中国经济正在对日本渐

行渐远，而且日本也没有搭上飞速行驶的“中国特快”。

去了日本的15％，我们可能最多损失20％，要是去了美国的10＋％，说不定就要损失50％。

经济的大棒可都关系到国人的饭碗，美国那么NB,棒子就看见过举着，没看见落下来的。还是政治解决吧。

外面的舆论还是偏负面，历史别人搞不清，一说游行，就要提那一挡子。可现在我们满手的牌，就是硬来，谁挡得住？

你真能抵制日货吗?

以下文章可能引起某些人的不快，但请注意此文章为引用，多看多听会使自己看问题更全面一点。

你用和弦手机吗？，所有的和弦芯片都是日本人的，用彩屏手机吗？所有的单晶粒白光LED都是日本人的，你用折叠手机吗？折叠手机90%的MLLC都是日本人的？用INTEL芯片吗？50%的INTEL的芯片载版都是日本IBIDEN的。AMD也不例外。用LCD显示器吗？所有的显示器都要使用的CF的颜料光组都是日本人的。要我继续说吗？我可以说10000个，不过我想没必要了。

　　日用品里面也是，凡是和高科技有关的大陆人水平如何大家都知道，台湾人会一点，除非你回到石器时代，否则你就别说抵制日货。

　　中国有1000家PCB厂，可是没有一家可以制造折叠手机用的HDI PCB板，中国有1000家LED厂，没有一家制造手机用的SMD LED，中国有世界上最大的玻璃产量，可是没有一家可以做TFT-LCD、STN-LCD的玻璃。中国有全世界最多的颜料厂和颜料产量，但是高级的颜料光组不会做。

　　抵制日货，先摆正心态，钻研科技，不过看看吧中科员的院士都在干什么？一个数字电视标准，清华上海交大浙江大学争来争去，本来1999年都可以推广，不知道2005年会不会有。

　　基础的电子元件基本都是台湾人和日本人的天下，除了电阻因为生产划不来，日本的军工技术连美国都要压制，当然不会有什么成就，至于军工，联盟5号的翻版就是神州五号，飞船用的表层符合材料这是日本TORY的专长，美国人一样从日本买，苏联的潜艇，没有东芝的数控机床，螺旋桨无法制造，美国严令日本东芝不能出口，不过东芝还是出口了6层楼高的数控机床，最终苏联潜艇和美国潜艇碰在了一起，美国才发现。说军事，我很有兴趣，坦克的火控系统都需要大量高稳定电子元件，台湾的都不行，全世界都是日本，动力系统，日本的柴油动力系统让日本的坦克具备最高的吨动力，柴油潜艇是中国大力发展的，柴油机一直不过关，买苏联的，实际还是日本的。不用多说了。

　　用空调吗？空调检测仪好象是毛细管检测部分，是日本垄断的，用白光LED吗？全世界都要用，节能还高效率，最佳的制造办法是日本的日亚化学，买LCD电视吗？LCD电视必用的CF和广视角膜都是日本垄断的，想做CF吗？大日本印刷是第一名，名字都够让人气。用数码相机吗？CCD头都是日本厂家的，飞机如歼10或者FBC-1，基础的电容都是日本NIPPON的，NIPPON也为日本造战舰。钢材吗？川奇重工的铁轨和西门子克路泊基本垄断。

　　网络里没有高尚，没有爱国，因为这里高尚是免费的，爱国是无成本的。

　　爱国吗？你敢辞职去保卫钓鱼岛吗？中国14亿人，只有一个人去了。抵制日货，把你的手机拿来，不管你用什么牌子的，国产手机的日本零件最多，用小灵通吗？那些都是KYOCERA京瓷过时的东西，拿到中国卖，红海把手机组装起来，卖给UTSTRCOM，单此一项，红海就做1800万，UTSTRCOM一部手机都不做。任何移动通讯设备轻松找到日本人的东西500个，你敢砸了手机吗？就算你有钱，也未必会。

　　话说回来问题是你怎么去抵制？在经济一体化的今天不但毫无益处，反而在贸易战中授人口实，且你根本无法抵制，你抵制了最终产品，还有中间产品，抵制了中间产品，日本人会直接投资建厂生产，你能怎么办，闭关锁国，开历史倒车？民众的力量是散的，政府、企业的购买才是大宗，反过来也决定了民众的消费趋向，民众的消费最终还是要通过企业的大宗采购来实现，但是无论政府也好企业也好，成本，质量控制都是他所必须注重的，我们天天听到有人叫嚣抵制日货，这里面有政府，企业的声音吗？即便有，也是凤毛麟角吧

　　有用吗？

　　所以，抵制日货的叫嚣，是一种非理性的、病态的发泄，不从现实出发，也不是对民族、社会的负责任态度。

　　在网络上号叫抵制日货，那人人都会喊，我可以喊得比你更响亮，更有内容，更有煽动性，我是学经济的，具有更多的经济知识，但是有用吗，也就是在网络上喊喊而已。

　　如今人民币想要不升值，想要维持目前的出口增长速度，GDP的高速增长来解决部分就业问题，是离不开大量引进外资的，而日本对华投资已经在国内占据第二，抵制的结果就是日资撤离，带动美资和其他外资的动摇

　　连现有就业量和经济收入都会大幅缩水，经济动荡是不是会引起社会动荡？所以说喊叫抵制日货的人根本就没有全局观念，只从自己的情绪出发，这种态度对社会民族是不负责任的，还谈什么爱国，根本是假爱国！

　　抵制日货，没错肯定对日本会有所伤害，但也伤害到我们自己，甚至说伤害我们更多，那是以自己的发展为代价的。杀敌一万，自损八千，中国要做世界强国，对手绝对不止日本，在发展的瓶颈时刻，把劲飙到日本人身上去也实在不划算，那笑到最后的会是其他人，本国人民生活的富足，国家的强大，对我们来说永远是第一位的，没有必要因为要和他国你死我活而去削弱自己！！！

心看看此贴,希望大家理性地看待中日关系.