主题：【编辑】美洲经济周报0629 -- 南方有嘉木
家园 很喜欢你的经济周报，盼继续。 家园 【整理】关于石油贸易人民币结算的一点资料： 前几天看到河里有讨论，刚好看到一点资料，整理一下，放在这里：
在第二次世界大战之前，中东国家有近2/3的石油贸易是以英镑来结算。1973年石油危机期间，美国总统尼克松说服沙特国王费萨尔接受以美元作为石油贸易结算的惟一货币，作为回报，美国允诺该国油田的绝对安全----双方签署的这项秘密协议史称“不动摇协议”。此后，欧佩克成员国陆陆续续均认可了美元计价方式。
1. 2012年6月“亚太石油贸易国际会议”上中国银行总行金融总部产品总监姜煦的发言：
2011年全年，经常项目跨境人民币结算量超过2.1万亿元（约占同期进出口结算总额的6.6%；跨境资本项下交易的结算金额超过了1100亿元；与境内发生跨境人民币实际收付业务的境外国家和地区已经超过190个。中国与主要产油国基本都已在双边贸易中开始使用人民币，为未来在油品贸易交易结算环节中使用人民币奠定了基础。
目前国际石油结算已小范围使用人民币，从2009年开始，国际石油贸易中人民币的使用越来越频繁，但人民币结算主要在国内企业与其境外平台机构之间进行，在真正的国际油品贸易环节中，还很少使用人民币结算。石油场内、场外市场，现货、期货及其衍生品市场，仍采用美元定价。人民币成为美元那样的定价及结算货币，在全球油品贸易结算中占据相应份额，还面临巨大挑战。石油贸易广泛使用人民币结算，有待国内金融市场不断健全和人民币回流机制的进一步完善。
----《国际石油经济》2012年8月号
2. 2010年8月，中国与委内瑞拉签订了总额高达206亿美元的“贷款换石油”协议，贷款方为国开行。该报告认为这项交易是国开行迄今为止最大的一笔海外放贷业务。据该报告披露，国开行、委内瑞拉经济和社会发展银行（BANDES）、中联油（Chinaoil）和委内瑞拉国家石油公司（PDVSA）当时签署了三项协议：国开行向BANDES贷款100亿美元，依据英国法律进行管理；国开行向BANDES贷款700亿元人民币（约为106亿美元），依据中国法律进行管理；PDVSA和中联油签订石油供应合同，依据委内瑞拉法律进行管理。
----《第一财经日报·美智库披露中国“贷款换石油”细节》2011年4月
3. 尽管目前国际石油市场以美元计价，但伊朗政府早在05年就通知其石油购买者以其他主要货币进行结算。现在伊朗石油贸易的主要结算货币是欧元。
人民网有篇旧闻可以参考：《伊朗建国际石油交易所以欧元结算 美加速动武》
4. 2011年，中国进口原油25378万吨，总额1966.64亿美元，占全国进口额的11.28%。原油出口252万吨，总额19.07亿美元，占全国出口额的0.10%。
关键词(Tags): #经济周报， 通宝推：zen,猪啊猪,桥上,黄河清,李根,曾自洲,家园 当美国不再进口石油时 不知会对这一进程有何影响？
美国的石油进口规模已经由高峰期的每天2000万桶，缩减到不足1000万桶。这个数字在今后几年还会继续下降，国际能源组织预计美国将于2035年实现石油自给自足，有分析认为美国甚至可能更早就会成为石油净出口国。家园 尼克松真厉害 - 复 尼克松真厉害
家园 主要的推手应该是基辛格， 以后有时间再来写写。简单地说，现在石油货币的主要矛盾在美元和欧元，人民币还不是矛盾中心，也没必要去急着成为美元的主要挑战者。另外一个需要现在开始准备且我们也有后发优势的问题是，石油之后，如何让人民币成为“核能货币”。
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这里这篇文章，可以看一下，但其所说的，有事实，也有些过度引申，批判地看吧：
Cost, abuse and danger of the dollar（节选）：
To keep the permanent demand for dollars going, oil sales must remain in dollars. That is why the US tries to keep as much influence as possible, as well on the US owned IPE and NYMEX world oil markets, as with the locals in power. By doing so the US secures its oil supply at the same time. Beyond that, lucrative contracts can be obtained from the local power, with which a maximum of benefits can be seized from the oil production.
But when the locals in power do not want to sell their oil in dollars anymore, the US has a problem. Then, the US-president will not explain how dependent the US is on the dollar demand. The conflict is always camouflaged. And to do so, always an emotional theme is choosen. In times gone by this was the danger for communists, today it is the danger for terrorists, fundamentalists and other popular bogies, like “the enemy has weapons of mass destruction” or “the enemy tries to make nukes.”
The fact that there is, rationally, not a single proof, does not matter. The emotions always win. Even the fact, that these accusations can be turned around and then can be proved, is noticed by hardly anyone. The US has weapons of mass destruction and has used them; the US has nukes and has used them, and even threatened with them still in 2000.
But once again, at the moment accusations are loaded with emotions humans switch off their intelligence. Reason is no argument for peace anymore. The theater is only about the launched accusations. And because, as a result, only specialists of weapons of mass destruction or nukes are called upon to give their opinion, nearly nobody finds out what the conflict is really about.
Venezuela
In Venezuela, since many years, the US tries to pull down president Chavez, pretexting he is a dangerous communist. Chavez has nationalized the oil industry and has set up Barter-deals to export Venezuelean oil in exchange for medical care from Cuba and others. In Barter deals there is no necessity for dollars and the US has no profit from the oil trade.
Iraq
Until 1990 the US maintained lucrative commercial contacts with Saddam Hussein. He was a good ally. For instance, in 1980 he had tried to free the hostages at the US-embassy in Teheran.
But in 1989 Saddam accused Kuwait of flooding the oil market and making the oil price go down. The following year Saddam tried to annex Kuwait. It led to an immediate turn around of the attitude of the US. With the annexation Saddam would dispose of 20 percent of world oil reserves. The Iraqis were chased out of Kuwait by the US, with an alliance of 134 countries, and condemned to water and bread by a UN-embargo that lasted ten years.
Although the US sought a way to re-establish its influence in Iraq, Saddam’s switch to the euro on November 6, 2000, would lead to the US invasion. The dollar sank away and in July 2002 the situation got that serious, that the IMF warned that the dollar might collapse. A few days later the plans for an attack were discussed at Downing Street. One month later Cheney proclamed it was sure now, that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. With this pretext the US invaded Iraq on March 19, 2003. The US switched back the oil trade into dollars on June 5, 2003.
There is a huge difference between trading Iraqi oil in euros and trading it in dollars.
Iran
The US is in conflict with Iran, since it was thrown out of the country in 1979. According to the US, Iran is a dangerous country of fundamentalists.
The geographical position of Iran, between the Caspian Sea and the Indian Ocean, complicates US ambitions to control the rich reserves of oil and gas on the East side of the Caspian Sea. To transport this oil and gas to world markets without crossing neither Russia, nor Iran, pipelines had to be built through Afghanistan. Plans were made in the early nineties, but the pipelines are still not there. Meanwhile the US tries to frustrate all competing projects of other countries.
Of course, this led to multiple conflicts of interest with Iran. George W. Bush would pretext the presence of Osama bin Laden to start a war against Afghanistan.
In 1999 Iran publicly stated it wanted to accept euros for its oil as well. Iran sells 30 % of its oil production to Europe, the rest mainly to India an China and not a drip to the US, as a result of an embargo established by the US itself. In spite of Bush’ threatening tale, mentioning the country in his famous “axis of evil”, Iran started to sell its oil in euros from spring 2003.
After that, Iran wanted to establish its own oil-bourse, independent from the IPE and NYMEX. It would start on 20 March 2006. Considering the very weak health of the dollar at that time, a success of this bourse could have led to a catastrophe for the dollar and thus for the US. That is why tensions were very high at the beginning of 2006.
Finally the opening of the oil-bourse was postponed. After that Putin established an oil bourse in Russia as quickly as possible, which took away the interest of the Iranian oil bourse.
The US accuses Iran of wanting to make nukes. This is not new. Iran and other Arabic countries feel threatened by the nuclear arsenal of Israel, that is not a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. In 1981 Israel has bombed the nearly completed power plant in Osirak, in Iraq. Since, several Arab countries consider to get nuclear arms to counter the Israelian threat.
It may seem strange, that a country disposing of oil, wants nuclear energy. Iran exports oil, but imports refined oil products. These are needed for lighting, heating, transport and industry of its growing population. For many Iranians the real price of these products would be too high. That is why they are sold cheap, with losses for the Iranian treasury. The switch to electricity should provide affordable energy for the whole country. Iran needs the revenues from its oil exports to finance the import of many other products it needs. That is the reason why Iran does not refine and consume its oil itself.
The bombing of power plants remain an interesting objective for the adversaries of Iran. If Iran cannot dispose of nuclear energy, it would have to decide to consume its oil, instead of selling it in euros. Lately, the chief of the IAEA, ElBaradei, warned the adversaries not to attack the Iranian facilities.
Further more, the IAEA and the US have conceived a masterly plan to take possession of the world market for nuclear fuel, in concert with a few other countries. They are using Iran as a pretext and a test. With this plan the demand for dollars would be secured for a long time, even after the oil age.
Russia
Since 8 June 2006 Russia too has turned its back to the dollar. By selling the dollar surpluses to central banks, Putin took care that it had no influence on the dollar rate. However, the basis for the world wide dollar demand has decreased a lot. The US needs Russia for its plans to take possession of the world market for nuclear fuel, so a revenge by the US is unlikely.
----Cost, abuse and danger of the dollar
By Rudo de Ruijter,
Independent Researcher
Netherlands
关键词(Tags): #经济周报，家园 也不用太高看美国 它的底牌是美元，王牌是航母代言的全球水道和交易量
可解决它的关键，在于现货市场！目前这种期货严重扭曲现货的市场，不可能会一直持续的！
坐等2020！
家园 第六点中全国进出口额读起来很怪 第六点中的全国进出口额读起来很怪，是不是世界进出口总额之类的？
家园 【整理】美洲经济周报0917 一. 美国
1. 9月17日，美纽约联储数据显示，9月纽约联储制造业指数意外大幅下滑至-10.41，创近三年半低位。
2. 9月15日，《纽约时报》：美国彻查银行业洗钱漏洞。调查由财政部下属的货币监理局、司法部和曼哈顿地区检察官办公室等机构协同发起，对象包括摩根大通银行、美国银行等多家美国主要金融机构。
3. 9月15日，美联储QE3推动大宗商品价格上涨：
国际金价上涨2％至每盎司1770美元上方；
国际白银上涨近3％，逼近每盎司35美元；
国际原油创下了5月以来最高水平，WTI收于每桶99美元，Brent原油收于每桶116.66美元；
铜作为基本金属的代表，LME三个月期铜本周上涨逾5％，也重返5月份以来高位；
在本轮上涨中，能源化工产品表现抢眼，塑料、甲醇等品种涨停，周涨幅分别接近7％和5％。而PTA、橡胶涨幅分别逼近8.5％和10％，领涨整个大宗商品市场。
4. 9月15日，路透调查预估中值显示,美联储根据9月14日公布的QE3计划将购买共计6,000亿美元债券,而且要等到美国失业率降至7%才会停止该项计划。
5. 9月14日，随着美联储公布QE3，美元指数跌破79点。
6. 9月14日，美联储季度流动资金报告显示，截止3月31日，美国企业共持有支票和储蓄存款达9310亿美元，创下历来最高。
7. 9月14日，美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)在长达两天会议后宣布将0-0.25%的超低利率期限延长到2015年中，15日开始推出进一步量化宽松政策(QE3)，每月采购400亿美元抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)，并维持现有扭曲操作(OT)不变。
8. 9月14日，美国劳工部数据：8月的生产者价格指数(PPI)环比增长1.7%。
9. 9月13日，芝加哥商品交易所(CME)宣布，将在今年四季度推出可交收离岸人民币期货，最长合约期限达三年，,除了10万美元的标准合约外，CME同时还准备推出1万美元的电子微型合约，期货合约的实物交割将在香港进行。
10. 9月12日，EIA数据，9月8日当周EIA原油库存增加199.4万桶。
二. 欧洲等
1. 9月17日，欧盟统计局数据显示，欧元区7月份外贸顺差由去年同期的21亿欧元升至156亿欧元，显示欧盟外贸形势有所好转。
2. 9月4日，国际劳工组织在日内瓦发布的《全球就业概览：青年就业市场前景暗淡》报告称，欧元区经济下行的影响已扩散到一些新兴经济体上，早已不容乐观的全球青年就业形势将因此雪上加霜。其中东亚地区青年失业率将从今年的9.5%增至2017年的10.4%。“到2017年，全球青年失业率将从今年的12.7%略增至12.9%。”上述报告的作者埃克哈德恩斯特指出，发达经济体青年失业率将从今年的17.5%降至15.6%。发达经济体青年失业率的缓慢回落并非来自就业市场复苏，而是由于相当一部分年轻人自动选择不工作，这部分年轻人不被纳入失业青年统计范畴。为此，国际劳工组织呼吁各国政府在制定宏观经济政策时优先发展能够带动更多就业，特别是体面就业的领域，采取能够抵御周期性经济危机的措施、提振消费的干预手段，出台能够大量容纳就业的公共领域基础设施建设计划，帮助年轻人就业。
三. 拉美和其他
1. 9月17日，印度央行宣布维持基准利率8%不变，但将银行现金存款准备金率下调25基点至4.5%，预计可为银行体系注入1700亿卢比。
2. 9月14日，巴西政府在美联储公布QE3之后立即推出新一轮经济刺激措施，包括延长税收优惠政策以及降低购买资本品的费用标准。
四. 油气
1. 美国宣布11国免受有关进口伊朗石油制裁。
美国国务卿希拉里克林顿14日宣布，鉴于日本和10个欧洲国家(比利时、英国、捷克、法国、德国、希腊、意大利、荷兰、波兰和西班牙)减少进口伊朗原油，美国决定将对这些国家的金融机构免予制裁待遇延长180天。
2.巴西石油：盐下层油气产量不足。
官方最新数据显示，今年7月份巴油盐下层石油开采量为每天17.28万桶，外加每天570万立方米的盐下层天然气，合计每日开采20.89万桶当量原油，环比增长9%。但这依旧难以掩盖总体减产的尴尬。分析人士指出，事实上盐下层石油开采量占海油总产量的百分比目前尚不足10%，巴油忽视常规石油勘探领域的继续投资，后果如今已开始显露。
位于里约州外海坎波斯盆地的东阿尔巴柯拉油田是巴油的海油主产区之一，2006年4月，P50钻井平台在此地投入开采，标志着巴西石油行业进入自给自足的新阶段。今天，这艘设计石油日开采量为18万桶的FPSO每天的实际开采量仅为7万桶，其余都是海水。类似产能不足的一幕同样也出现在其他几个主要油田，实际产能眼下均未能达到设计值的一半。
除产量不足外，巴油旗下的炼油基础设施匮乏亦是一大瓶颈。目前巴油在国内的十余家炼油厂每日合计能够炼油204万桶，缺口明显，规划中新建的几家大型炼油厂短期内还指望不上。为保障国内成品油需求，巴油不得不从国外大量进口石油衍生品，直接导致企业净利润下降。
关键词(Tags): #经济周报， 通宝推：切地雷,家园 感谢嘉木的义务劳动。好消息总能让人开心点的。：) 更节能的汽车引擎和可再生燃料将帮助抑制对石油的需求。"
美国的能源安全保障的未雨绸缪工作做得的确很好。美洲资源短期内应该不是Emergent的问题。相比日本的危机感，不可同日而语。
"9. 专家称美国2035年前或彻底摆脱对中东石油依赖
美国能源情报署表示，到2020年，美国自产原油将能够满足将近一半的国内需求，其中82%的资源来自大西洋西岸。石油输出国组织最近预计，到2035年，从中东到北美的石油运输将几乎完全消失，部分原因在于，更节能的汽车引擎和可再生燃料将帮助抑制对石油的需求。"