主题：【原创】救火队成型-中国版本的08火山在前面了？ -- 范进中举

这里有一篇演讲实录，是林毅夫的。篇幅很长，但是的确很明确的表达了他的主张及阐述了他的逻辑，值得细看。他的说法是“超越凯恩斯主义”。其实说白了，就是危机的时候，政府的确应该花钱来撑住总需求，否则就落入需求下降带来资产价格螺旋下跌的经济萧条；但是，都是政府花钱，怎么个花法很不一样，你是花钱来给民众补贴福利呢，还是花钱创造一些就业机会同时补上基础建设的缺口。

这跟我一个贴中提到的政府债务到底是“投资债”还是“福利债”，有点类似。

外链出处

不过，话又说回来，这些是从宏观的角度来看，说的是总需求。JAVACAI兄最后的着眼点说的很明确，即便肉烂在锅里，

但不管怎么说，能把总量做上去，不管是谁的锅谁的肉，还是会皆大欢喜一点；再退一步说，如何公平的切蛋糕是个问题，但不应该和做大蛋糕问题相混淆。总不至于说，因为切蛋糕不公，所以大家都不做蛋糕了，对着蛋糕图片一边流口水一边动刀子？

什么事情，走了极端就不好了，可是，走了极端不好，并不等于这件事不走极端也不好。比如修地铁，本来是好事，可是如果走了极端，像你说的一样，全国每一个县级市都大修地铁，那就走极端了，就不好了。可是这并不能说明修地铁本身是不好的事情。

你用走极端的方式想要否定事情本身，那没用。

1.

all tg has been doing so far for GDP growth, the 大棋 related investment/credit is pretty much based on "地铁修通全国" model

if "地铁修通全国"model does not make money, the investment/credit bubble will burst, the time horizon depends on the debt duration/structure, etc, among other things, but as you said, overall, debt cannot be written off, it has to be paid, paid back to tg, tg's biggest creditor is tg itself fundamentally, not foreign 資本家 yet;

so "地铁修通全国" has to make money, period, tg=資本家 too, 賠錢的生意沒人做, you want to tg 賠錢? are you too simple too nave?

2. can "地铁修通全国" make money?

before the 2008 white's 金融危機, tg might have expected that china's export boom (with a little bit of 產業升級 day dreaming as well) led economy will make "地铁修通全国" at least not losing money, if not making a lot of money;

after 2008 white's 金融危機, tg might have expected that white's economy will be bouncing back, together with tg's export boom;

now, it looks like that in the "foreseeable" future, there will be no significant "bouncing back" for a white economy which is burdened with high consumer debt/high production over-capacity, even with Fed QE first, followed by EU qe, and now with Japanese QE, leaving TG alone out there naked basically: Tg can only qe Chinese people, with 人民幣 largely only circulating domestically;

now awake from china's export boom bouncing back and 產業升級 related day dream, harsh reality kicks in, and tg has to re-set its expectations in its head with its butt sitting on an increasingly cold chair, before an another round of 摸石头过河 :

2.1

what should tg do to save the massive "地铁修通全国" investment/credit bubble from falling apart, and even more importantly preventing a largely "地铁修通全国" investment/credit bubble boosted Chinese economy from deflating?

2.2

debt write off/割肉 思想實驗

2.2.1

割tg 紅肉

and even with "地铁修通全国" investment/debt writing off, tg 割肉, can that tg割肉 stop a 30 year "地铁修通全国" investment model based Chinese economy from deflating further and further?

without "地铁修通全国" investment, what will reflate the 7 trillion USD/GDP Chinese economy?

2.2.2 割黑肉, after tg 割 its own 紅肉

长虹大黑? let Mr bo come out of jail?

still, after all these debt write off/割紅肉割黑肉, how do you make Chinese economy 长出新肉? if you can't make Chinese economy 长出新肉, the economy as a 耗散系统 will keep deflating=消耗自己身上肉, until it finds an equilibrium at a much lower energy level, where would that much lower energy level be?

2.2.3

unless hit by 相对论高能辐射, an economic system as a 耗散系统, much like a bio/human system, normally deflates slowly in a 熱力學 environment/fasion, often with very little dramatic type of pain, and sometimes with many eye-cheating 回光返照:

a 耗散系统 has often multiple equilibrium points with confusing 簡併態@each equilibrium point , very often across multiple energy levels,進一步退兩步下台階, on its overall downward deflating path in its search of the most stable equilibrium at the lowest energy level possible for the system to do survival testing .

where would be that lowest energy level? can tg/china as a very colorful 费米/化学 system survive on that energy level and for how long?

tg might be long gone before figuring out that physics homework 101, particularly if both 总参 and 軍委 all messed up with those confusing charts, after partying hard with those even more confusing 文工团 gals, can you really trust those 总参 and 軍委 folks' professional competency?

2.2.4

a case at the point: the above made-up story of confusing charts confused even more by those confusing 文工团 gals=a very low 效费比 system, with system' low grade output increasingly relying on high leverage of capital/financial input, pretty much like tg's "地铁修通全国" economic model: but where you can find that almost unlimited supply of the low-cost capital required by the system, even for "just an another 10" year under xl's term?

2.2.5

so, "地铁修通全国"要赚钱 is not even a 割肉( Tg's肉 or other Chinese folks肉) issue,

then how about 割血管?

割血管=割旧血管上新血管=a fundamental change of tg/china political and economic model, do you expect tg to do a heart transplant on tg itself, alive?

so, don't even bother asking tg to 割血管

2.3

then what is the issue?

"地铁修通全国"要赚钱=tg 一党执政 politically, and tg's "地铁修通全国" economic model must 赚钱=tg's political and economic model cannot come to a fundamental loss

and with an increasingly less competitive and less "lucky" export sector, and 產業升級 basically downgraded to a talk show day and night, the only 够得上戰役物理數量級 level economic driver/幹部 left=全国土地流轉 type of 城镇化

2.4

I would think that tg's top brass has been researching/debating on that for a while, and tg knows 全国土地流轉 type of 城镇化 will make

all the "地铁修通全国"projects 赚钱, 赚大钱, 全國經濟上台阶(and smarty "腐败" folks钱上台阶 too ) , everybody knows.

全国土地流轉: will tg do it?

3.

for a while, tg will be still in 四处张望 phase, with "全国土地流轉"as 战略预备队, 全国土地流轉 now simply looks "too scary to do it", very scary, even for #1人精tg, still scary, not an easy call.

I guess, if eventually no good luck and no alternative found, and china's debt financed growth further slows down, 战略预备队 might go into 一号备战 mode

4. 全国土地流轉=too big a deal to fail, 只许成功 不许失败

4.1

as a hedge, tg will very likely

统一战线 with 美欧资本国际 to do this "全国土地流轉" big deal;

without hedging, if "全国土地流轉" fails for whatever reasons, such as large scale 農民 riot, it will be the last day of tg.

nobody @tg top will dare to do 8^2 with a large scale 農民 riot, I would guess: nobody wants to be a 替罪羊 with his head to be 城門上斩首示众

when "market" reopens the 2nd day after 8^2.

so, the "worst" and "tg consensus" based end case scenario for the current "地铁修通全国" investment/credit economic model/bubble:

as always 共军偵察小分队 all over the place, if no good luck, no alternative found, 中央 may have to go with "全国土地流轉" model, move on, 盤活全國經濟 first;

4.2

"全国土地流轉"战略预备队由備戰轉入作戰

"臨界點"="地铁修通全国" investment/credit bubble boosted Chinese economy deflating to the point where Chinese economy stability and therefore tg's 执政合法性(and the huge tax revenue needed to finance执政) will be seriously threatened,

but how "serious" is serious? that is tg 政委's call

if it is a "go ahead", then, we will see tg start with 政治外交 big 改变 first, etc, to secure 统一战线 with 美欧资本国际;

then "全国土地流轉",战略预备队 comes in, 作戰開始

5

of course, the above is a pure theoretical "modeling" of china's social science for xl's 10 year term

-----

"“融资热、经济冷”，钱到哪里去了？”周一的时候一季度数据出来了，出数据之前的那一周周四，领导到央行开工作会，开会的第一句话就是钱到哪儿去了？大家可以看得到，整个一季度6.16万亿社会融资，钱花到哪儿去了？经济为什么这么冷？"

http://www.ccthere.com/article/3871037

once 统一战线 with 美欧 is established in terms of securing 美欧political "support" and fiancé capital for tg/china's城镇化 , tg will handle domestic 內戰左右派, like a piece of cake, 小菜一碟, and tg's possibly debt bubble導致的 丢失政权 will be 虚惊一场

"中国地方政府那样直接做生意" [ 晓兵 ]

http://www.ccthere.com/alist/3870352/2

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领域时空：【原创】农村见闻 2013-02-19 01:14:54

https://www.ccthere.com/alist/3846986/2

土地流转与中国工农业结构双稳态发展 [ 领域时空 ]

有观点认为，中国小农经济效率低，土地固定在家庭手中限制了规模化和产业化农业生产方式的应用，因此要推动土地流转，把土地通过市场交易流动起来，让可以实行规模化和产业化的市场主体获得足够的土地进行生产和经营。我觉得出发点是对的，方式未必对。我从粮食生产方式、土地兼并集中和中国工农业双稳态发展分析。

我国小农粮食生产未必是没有效率的。我国是一个大国，更是人口大国，粮食问题必须自己解决。因此，农业无论怎么改，怎么提高效率，都要以粮食生产为主。美国属于机械化农场式生产，生产效率是高，有数据说一个美国农民能够养活多少人等。可是还有数据说美国农业生产收集的能量与消耗的能量几乎相等。另外我国平原少，山地和丘陵多，适用于机械化大生产的土地要比美国少的多。山地和丘陵的粮食种植，还是需要小农式的精耕细作。在平原地区，小农式生产方式相对于机械化和规模化效率是否低。从许多方面的因素来说，可以找到低的因素，如水短缺时的漫灌技术和滴管技术，田间管理技术的先进性，种子与疾病防治等，小农生产的分散性的确会影响粮食产量。在许多平原地区，已经出现了种粮大户。种粮大户的土地怎么来的，是不是一定是土地流转来的，我未掌握资料。总体来看，平原地区适合机械化规模生产，山地和丘陵未必适用，小农生产有其灵活性。

土地兼并集中。土地使用权流转后，理论上不可避免的遵循资本集中原则，历史上不可避免地重复土地集中的现象。土地集中，就意味着许多农民失去基本的生产资料，就需要被城市和工业体系所吸收。如果不能吸收，遇到生产生活的波动性，就会出现贫民窟。就像现在城市白领，如果家庭夫妻一方失业，影响不大；如果双方失业，失去收入来源，就会影响家庭职能运行；如果双方失业还有农村土地和亲戚，就会重返农村，进行另一种生产生活方式；如果连农村土地都没有，就基本成为彻底的卢瑟一族了。如果没有社会保障（美国）和意识形态（印度），社会体系和经济体系的稳定性就会降低，那才是真正落入历史周期律。

中国工农业双稳态稳定发展模式。这个是我想说的重点。我从有序性创造稳态对农民工的生产方式分为三类。一是农业生产方式，属于有序性创造程度较低的稳态，二是工业生产方式，属于有序性创造程度较高的稳态，三是失业，属于最低的有序性创造稳态，就是不创造。农民工离土不离乡，就是保持农业生产低稳态条件下，同时进入高稳态运行状态。微观讲，如果失去打工的工作，就可以进入农村进行低稳态生产生存，不至于形成失业这种最低稳态。根据系统学原理，系统中的自由能总要通过改变系统结构纳入到系统。失地失业农民到底会以什么方式纳入到农村和城市系统，相信只能是个成本高低的问题，而不是无成本的问题。从宏观上讲，农民工的这种灵活性保证了中国经济体系工业和农业双稳态的稳定运行。工业繁荣时，大量农民工进入工业生产体系，经济危机时，大量农民工返回农业生产体系。农业的好处是超稳定，因此中国经济获得了低成本的庞大劳动力来源和失业大军吸纳机制。这算是中国成功的秘密之一吧。

如果土地流转和兼并集中发生，中国将失去农村这个中间层稳态结构和吸纳机制，中国经济将在高稳态和最低稳态之间交替运行，这样的稳定性就会差得多。中国农村机制的历史性任务还没有完成，还有存在的必要性。任何超出时代特点和局限而试图破坏这一双稳态稳定结构的企图，要么是空想的要么是别有用心的。

农村土地流转不是一个简单问题，不是可以用数据和模型就可以得出结论的。这是一个复杂问题，历史的、现实的、经济的、社会的、微观的、宏观的，各种因素都缠绕在一起。自组织发展，试点推动，实践改进，才是中共最为务实和有效的方法。

regardless of politics, basic/fundamental 金融逻辑,坐标变换不变, bad investment/credit bubble as a waste of economic resource can't be unlimited extended anywhere, and it will be corrected, one way or another;

physics is all about energy (can we do anything without energy?), with 最小作用量原理, as one of the "cores of the white logic" to start with.

1.

for a system to survive: it has to use 最小作用量, with 最大范围( to get information, often "最大體積" in 洛伦兹流形) 积分, kind of like the plant's animal behavior you guys discussed, and we could call that as plant's 最小作用量原理 or plant's AI, and from plant's AI to 費曼路徑積分, etc

http://www.ccthere.com/article/3868472

2.

那些烂尾楼，所谓烂尾，就是没盖完，资本家不愿意或者没钱继续投入进去了，所以才会烂尾。这样的房子怎么分给群众住呢？如果是政府投资盖的安居楼，就不会有烂尾的情况发生。所以你不能把烂尾楼算在政府帐上。

政府管的是基础建设，所谓基础建设，高铁算一部分，高速公路算一部分，广场啊绿化带啊，城市环线高架啦，下水道的扩充啦，这些才是基础建设。盖房子那是商业行为，是私人投资做的事情，它烂尾也

烂不到政府债务上。

至于公路，我知道有很大一部分高速公路是政府筹集一部分钱或地皮，然后私人筹集另外的部分资金，共同完成的。你要算政府债务也只能算政府的部分，私人部分不能算在政府债头上。

那些欠了很多政府债的地方，是因为前几年大干快上多修了一些基础设施，但是这些东西修好了，就可以持续用几十年，接下来几年就不需要花那么多钱了，所以只要维持就好，那么政府的负担也就会比前几年小很多。