主题：亚洲第二次金融危机将展开 -- parishg
家园 克鲁格曼又对你的观点辟谣了 但是目前我比较倾向你的观点
家园 this guy is well known for distorting academic research to fit his personal political agenda/inclination.
He cited net external debt burden, rather than the gross one. Selective reporting here.
He did not mention India's foreign currency reserve/import ratio, which he is well aware of as a macro-economist. Why not talk about oil import, rising oil prices, fast depreciating domestic currency, on-the-brink runaway inflation...
这条老狗真让人恶心。
家园 你的预测未必准 几个人都资不抵债，债主一要钱，都要卖儿卖女，但，债主先向谁逼债呢。
这个顺序，决定了危机的次序。
同样地震，中国这种豆腐渣大楼和印度这种草棚子比，死人肯定多，但，来的是台风呢。。。
基本面比烂容易，但预测灾害来临的强度和方式很难。
美帝的两难是一方面，怕人不借钱，另一方面，更怕人不还。把欠债的杀了，对别的欠阎王债的，反而是鼓励，大不了一死，二十年后又是一条好汉。。。。要让欠债的卖肝卖肾卖眼角膜，卖了自己卖儿女，几辈子当牛作马的收益才大。
长久的恐惧才是目标，欠了债还想痛快了断，浴火重生，怎么可能。
- 复 你的预测未必准
家园 这都是什么比喻。。。唉 - 复 你的预测未必准
家园 兄弟，能否以后 多用一些economic indicator，具体的数据来论证？不要想当然好不好。我可以理解满人的后代失去了鱼肉中华的能力，有人可以不爽，但这种一涉及中国就否定的样子有点过头了。中国有三万亿USD reserve，长期是current account surplus nation，与India 和其他ASEAN nations 很不一样。 跨起来要时间的。
债主先向谁逼债呢。
--In India's case, American institutional investors are the creditors. In China's case, China is the creditor and US gov. is the largest debtor. For God's sake, please DO read some newspapers...
BTW, Quebec is a very "distictive" and unique nation with more than 25% gov. revenue from Canadian Federal transfer funds. The economy/tax revenue is heavily reliant on three gov-controlled enterprises: Hydro-Quebec, Loto, and SAQ. And the last Quebec manufacturing firm that I can remember is Bombardier, whose bank loans are heavily subsidized with provincial gov. guarantees.
It is a spoiled child with all kinds of weird socialist policies, but irresponsible fiscal/financial practices. Even the Ministry of Finance has a special report on the unsustainable public finance issue. The warning signs are everywhere in this province with all the crumbling infrastructure.
So next time when you introduce America or North America to Chinese audience, PLEASE, PLEASE, do NOT extrapolate from your experience in Montreal to all North America.
BTW, do not attack Chinese Canadians/Americans with your experience in Montreal too: because your sample is too small and TOO UNIQUE. Thanks.
通宝推：喝点红茶上会网,种植园土,何求,- 复 兄弟，能否以后
家园 Quebec 的确面对着问题 看了一下不算asset的话丫负债占GDP的117%，不过不清楚他的债务（以及国有企业的债务）掐在谁的手里；如果算上asset倒是很低，但是毫无意义，因为要么不可能变现要么只能以很低的价格变现。
家园 page 29, table 12 http://www.finances.gouv.qc.ca/documents/Autres/en/AUTEN_DebtFeb10_gouvQC.pdf
It is in the same league with Greece.
all comparison must be on the same measurement basis. Experts know how bad the situation is. They just shut up and let those drunken fools go on with their crazy party.
Why PQ loves to go independent? Not for independence AT ALL, just to rip off fellow Canadians once more.
Low interest rate environment is over and gov. bond term structure is going up: medium/long-term fed. gov. rates are going up in Canada. So will be the rates for Quebec and Ontario bonds. Both will see interest service cost rise in their next year's budget: shocking surprises and new budget cuts.
BTW, one reason why Quebec feels so good is that its difference with Ontario, its archirival, is shrinking over years.
What people do not realize is that Ontario has been and is already on a path of low growth, de-industrialization and real estate/financial speculation for almost 7 years. They converge not because Quebec is shining, but because Ontario is lagging behind the western provinces, esp., Alberta.