主题：去工业化后的再工业化的可能性？ -- 夜如何其
家园 去工业化后的再工业化的可能性？ 首先，本文就是个简单的方法论。
第二，所讨论的很有可能没有任何现实意义。
基于此两点，本文很有可能不值得一驳，有无数的现实例子可以证明荒缪。
希望讨论仅限于方法论。
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去工业化后，是否还有再工业化的可能？
用十个字作为研判。
前五个字：人，机，料，法，环。
后五个字：水，电，汽，风，冷。
先说后五个字，实际上这是大工业运行时，五种必备的能源形式。
大城市里，几乎每座大型商业建筑都拥有，只不过是功率大小。
这五个字，可以打个对勾。
麻烦的是前五个字。
人：优秀的管理人才是否还有，技术梯队是否还能重建，职业技工队伍能组织的起来？
机：机器设备还有没，备件买不买的到，能否施工安装？
料：原材料哪里来？
法：工艺规程是否还在？技术来源种子是否还有？
环：整体工业环境能建立，配套？
如果都能，甚至于非常勉强地画个对勾，好，过了。
即去工业化后，再工业化是可能的。
我说过了，我们只讨论方法论，务虚而已，别谈具体的。
地上可能有骨头。
家园 被夸大了的石油危机（三） 很多人都把能源危机简单的理解为石油危机。
同时把海洋运输线的重要性提高到无以附加的地步。
其实，石油并没有普通人想象的那么重要，当然它还是很重要的。
石油向下流动，有两个重要的用途，一是作为能源，二是作为化工源头。
作为这两点，都是可以替代的。
就目前所知，煤炭，甲烷，生物能源，核电，水电，太阳能以及被认为终极解决方案的
核聚变。
只是把目标限制于化石产品，即使在大部分石油采完之前，替代也可以完成。
石油很重要，但没有大多数人想象的那么重要。
家园 3D打印对工业系统真正的意义（二） 除去一些特别的用途外，比如打印战斗机钛合金骨架，人的下颌骨，3D只是模具工业和机加工工业的一个补充替代方式。
甚至很有可能与这两种工业有机地混合在一起。
对于中国这样的工业体系完善的大国而言，3D打印几乎没有太大的意义。
对后进小国而言，由于迈向工业化是个复杂的进程，很难评估3D打印的实际影响。
3D打印能够被强力推荐使用往往是极端的场合，比如战争前线，极地，或供应过程过于漫长的场合，反映到成本上，就是一些对成本不太敏感的地域，或由于种种原因，主动或被动能够承受较高成本的地方。
但对于某些国家，3D打印却具有非比寻常的意义。
这些国家有两类，一是去工业化国家，二是无法建立完整独立体系，但有一定体量的后发国家。
由于恢复工业体系和建立工业体系的难度巨大，而却成本高昂，风险巨大。
3D打印在国家规模的支持下，以社会总成本最低的方式，给重建和新建工业体系，提供了另一条出路。
也就是说，3D打印对中国近乎无用，类似于大力丸的情况下，对另外一部分国家而言这是起死回生或白日飞升的灵丹妙药。
我知道我的看法不太令人高兴，可能我是错的。
家园 3D打印对中国的意义在于缩短 研发时间，节约研发费用（相对于开模具）而不是大规模制造。说3D打印对中国近乎无用，过了
家园 您支持了我的观点！ 在美国模具厂商的代表能装满一个会议室。
中国的模具厂商的代表能装满一个体育场的情况下。
家园 3D ALGO: 穿插战 vs 中国阵地战 well said, and as usual, I am going to focus more at system and ALGO level, and my methodology in particular.
1.
why I keep "politicizing" TGchina in almost all my posts?
"走我们自己的路 让别人无路可走", Tgchina's propaganda (more of propaganda than anything else, I think TG leadership understands that)
however, the global capital market went panic in 2008-2010 financial crisis: 1 of reasons, market kind of got fxxked hard by tgchina's huge disruption to the US managed global system post WWII, and its financial "derivatives" of all kinds as a consequence of that "TGchina disruption".
can system survive that high order 扰动 and come back to its equilibrium state?
2.
http://www.ccthere.com/article/4031510
"I care about TG the most, because TG is potentially the biggest game changer to this US led game;
if all potential game changers are neutralized, then the systematic risk is reduced significantly;
US led 2008 global financial crisis: part of reasons, globalization of capitalism, china's rise and its huge impact on the system, etc.
now the system is somehow adjusted itself to the huge disruption caused by Tgchina as a huge new elephant in the otherwise already crowded house, and this USA managed house has largely stabilized, although at one point it almost falls apart in 2008.
that is the #1 reason behind the current US bull market: tgchina's disruption to the system has been digested fairly well overall, and as a result, largely priced in by financial market.
kind of why Tgchina's on-going economic mess does not really bother global capital market anymore, the way EU did.
the global capital market kind of has come to a fairly good understanding of Tgchina as an significant player in today's world.", not really a big deal anymore, kind of.
3.
why I always talk about ALGO?
no ALGO, no software, and we are now in a software economy, and we are becoming a software society, globally. again, software as ALGO is a fundamental weakness of TGchina's model.
there is ALGO, but 没有阴谋论 in social system, fundamentally and at system level.
as said, physics cannot even model a 基因 as a system of millions atoms working together, how anybody can possibly have a consistent 阴谋论 model for a social system?
it is just impossible.
because of all these, 生产关系 business is hugely profitable business, with a huge potential for arbitrage.
4.
global 生产关系 ALGO: this is where money is made
"诸神的黄昏": 资本把人类卷入社会化大生产 [ 晓兵 ]
1)
white's 宗教 algo change
如果跳出中国，远离政府看历史的话 [ 喝点红茶上会网 ]
"因信稱義, 因信得生”=宗教成为了个人的行为, not an ideology/意识形态 game at state or society level, not anymore;
why? 宗教 or any 意识形态 is not an effective information/ALGO(logic) processing system anymore, as it used to be, now with industrial capitalism emerging out of europe and going globally.
2)
white 生产关系 ALGO change
生产工业化, 资本社会化, 货币信用化, and more recently, 金融"意识形态化" (everybody has to play the game, one way or another, globally)
"汉密尔顿ABC"講金融, "humanity 自身的知识和勇气" 的稀有性 (value) and relative pricing, a core ALGO of today's financial capitalism.
3)
today's informational/ALGO capitalism with all kinds of new toys such as AI(生产信息化, 生产智能化), 3D 穿插战(生产个人化, 生产个性化) etc:
and we have just started in this brave and brand new chapter of global capitalism.
5.
why TG "毛林共识" is a "内战内行 外战外行" 生产关系 ALGO?
we all know that "毛林共识" was originated from 列寧's model: 枪杆子 and 笔杆子=the most valuable asset class in a society (basically in TGchina only), where the information is highly controlled and regulated, and centralized, among other fundamental issues at system level.
vs white's "humanity 自身的知识和勇气" 的"金融"社会稀有性 model, "毛林共识"="枪杆子和笔杆子"的"政治"社会稀有性, depreciating "知识, information 和勇气", 本质上.
In that sense, "毛林共识" is still a "relative pricing" model, it just prices "枪杆子和笔杆子" above all other asset classes of a social system, and forever, almost.
this is why TG keeps telling the world: 中国文明 and 和平共处 BS, because fundamentally, "毛林共识"="内战内行 外战外行", and it is for 中国文明 only, period.
No other nations are going to buy "毛林共识" BS, ever, at system level.
yes, today TGchina's "毛林共识" ALGO has tons of all kinds of 市場 tricks as well, but relative to 枪杆子 and 笔杆子, those 市場 tricks are still tricks: 枪杆子 and 笔杆子 can fxxk those 市場 tricks anytime, anywhere, anyway, if the sysadmin so decides.
6.
obviously TGchina needs a new software/ALGO to replace that "once working but now outdated" "毛林共识" super ALGO, period, and I think, fundamentally, TG elite understands it.
but how? nobody knows: how do you drag yourself into outer space away from earth?
586's China dream is a dream, it is not an ALGO.
Tgchina's "走我们自己的路 让别人无路可走", may be, to some extent, and it did last for a while, and now, it has all come back and trapped Tgchina itself big time, in a deeper and deeper hole of "内战内行 外战外行" "毛林共识"ALGO.
7.
出来混总是要还的: it is basically physics ALGO
for a near equilibrium macroscopic system of huge size, system's 梯度越大，系统 储存/compressed 自由能越多, and those 储存/compressed 自由能 will eventually come out possibly with many headfakes, eating 梯度, and maximizing system's entropy on its way, so system becomes more stable again.
the only other outcome: system "breaks", jumping into a new form, 相变, of game changer magnitude.
8.
no wonder, working and playing hard atop a highly concentrated leveraged 的政治 system unmatched globally and historically, TG elite actually feels very nervous, if not scared, I would think:
they may not know about physics as much, but as top class politicians, they better have that "animal instinct" in their brain.
they better be.
mind ALGO runs everywhere.
9.
then, how to deleverage that huge risk of 高处不胜寒 for TG, for Chinese as a nation?
解鈴還需繫鈴人, when you are in a hole, you call the market maker: hi, boss, can we workout some deal?
more likely than ever, TG wants to work out a deal with Uncle Sam.
Uncle Sam: now you call me the fxxking boss, have you been stealing money from my office, while trying hard to fxxk me off the boss chair?
but that is ok, everybody wants to do that to me, that is part of the game;
now, the deal part: what is actually in your pocket that I really do care about?
if I do care at all.
Uncle Sam is an evil, he has been.
Hillary will be a double evil, with her husband together as a package of "buy one and get another one for free".
10.
for now, chairman X has to run 586 Algo: "因信稱義, 因信得生”, 信黨中央 [ 晓兵 ] ;
信黨中央 ALGO: repackaging 黨中央 with "china dream/中国文明/和平共处" BS, and make 黨中央 =the ONLY 神 in TGchina again, at whatever fxxking cost: just do it.
with that 586 ALGO, is Mr Wen basically a living dead?
then, who is the next?
586 Algo could be very bloody, omg(:).
家园 "去工业化后的再工业化的可能性": M&A ALGO 1.
tgchina's 阵地战: 4纵 already gone
"厂房,远远望去漂亮整齐, 近看却没有门框窗户" , and a huge debt monster still eating up tgchina's capital;
2.
X's 1纵李天佑=1)民間还有钱, 2) 中央还有钱
3.
"M&A" hot, in US in particular
1 of reasons, for companies (yes, it is different for a big country like Tgchina), build or buy?
build from scratch in front of "AI(生产信息化, 生产智能化), 3D 穿插战(生产个人化, 生产个性化)"?
you are facing the risk of building something of totally BS;
so, merger and acquisitions:
if you have a good brain, and build something out of it, and capital market finds you and figures out your "value" : money falls onto your heads from sky;
and everybody is happy.
M&A: another driver of this US bull market
4.
"去工业化后的再工业化的可能性"
"M&A" globally
家园 工业系统: make or break you? 1.
tgchina's 阵地战: 4纵 already gone
"厂房,远远望去漂亮整齐, 近看却没有门框窗户" , and a huge debt monster still eating up tgchina's capital;
and yes, we all know, at the very beginning of "china dream", TG's 4纵 had all the good intentions, beautiful heart, and yes, some brain power to build a 工业系统 for china to catch up with white's world, yes, jpy as well.
and yes, 4纵 had some fun with women and some money they "miscalculated" while working hard.
not really a big deal.
2.
the big deal: as a nation, is Tgchina "self aware" or have a system for "self-correction"?
what happened?
4纵 already gone, and 4纵's ass is still full of BS to be cleaned, and possibly dragging down 1纵 into the blackhole.
3.
ALGO power, when and how can china start working on its brain power or ALGO power, "if tomorrow ever comes".
as a nation, tomorrow does come, the future generation of Chinese nation will see tomorrow.
but today, anybody in china even cares about tomorrow?
家园 最关键的一个字 利
这一大套下来要是没利润谁愿意折腾啊，有利润再缺条件资本也能克服万难给配齐了