主题：【原创】“中国崩溃论”屡屡崩溃的根本原因 -- 比的原理
家园 只有纽约人口够 其他城市人口规模都不够。
欧美福利高是显然不对的。鼓励不劳而获。
家园 没有宝推了，只能花 楼主讲了这么多，其实就一点，所谓崩溃论是拿别人的理论套我们，套错了对象。理工科人搞研究中，常有年轻人将文献上的公式拿来就用，不注意看人家的应用条件。
理论用错了对象，两个对象最为关键的区别是：天朝历史上是权力串联资本的政权结构，乔致庸钱再多，也不能与朝廷为敌。西方是资本串联权力的政权结构，不听资本话的总统，可以派精神病人暗杀他。
家园 前者必然与普遍，后者是偶然与个别 中国历史上以及现在的、自上而下地官与商的勾结和利益输送是每个县每个省每个部门条线普遍存在的，而且已经成为财政政策、产业政策甚至货币政策的传导枢纽了；欧美自下而上的勾结也是层出不穷的，但相对有规矩，有约束，大规模全面性的情况仍不显著。在这个问题上必须要有基本的统计学思维，不可以再坚持经验主义的“听风便是雨”来蒙蔽自己。
另外，不能忽视天朝的需求侧管理的政治特色。在欧美文明里，这既是违背商业与资本要求的，也是侵犯人权的。一个违宪判定谁都受不了，包括小罗斯福的New Deal，救命药最后判定是毒药。这种政治程序到底是反讽还是有深意的，这个我们必须要弄清楚其历史价值，否则我们的沾沾自喜仍旧是肤浅自得的。
而我们的这个管理方式实质在削峰填谷，看似平抑了短期商业周期的波动，躲避了中期的崩溃，却孕育了长周期的毁灭，在历史上我们发生了数次了。欧美政客也会收买人心，减少波动的痛苦，所以也有西欧与日本的烂摊子，但是毕竟还是有规则有红线的。至于奥地利学派的市场原教旨思想，还没有引起我们的注意呢。而为什么自由市场经济的几位思想家，不约而同地出现在政府规制最繁琐的奥匈帝国呢，这是很有趣的。我可不希望中国今后也以这样的窘况产生世界级的思想家。
家园 市场原教旨: 2 critical concepts. 市场原教旨 is almost the "evil" to "most" Chinese.
1.
two critical concepts.
first, it is all about information processing.
you need an almost 原教旨市场 system to have a multiple information processing systems, independent of and competing with each other, such as that in USA, and only in USA.
USD as a reserve currency, a big part of that=USD is a currency with much higher information content.
information/测度 is and will be becoming even more important, it is almost as important as legal system of private ownership, a "good" constitutions etc.
secondly, it is all about innovation and growth.
another pillar of 市场原教旨思想 is system's top priority is promoting innovation and growth, welfare of society or reducing income gap are subject to system's #1 top priority.
not only that, to promote innovation and growth, those innovation and growth agent(more and more of informational and financial capitalists )are always rewarded with a huge premium, with everything else (such as raw material) and everybody else (such as average workers) are priced at a steep discount, leading to even worse income disparity of the society.
that is an issue, but it does not and should not change economic system's top priority of innovation and growth.
that is obviously a challenge to the current system.
and for biological or social system of dissipative nature/开放耗散系统, there is no "best" or not even "good" option in terms of system design, there is only the lessor of two evils.
市场原教旨 is an evil, but the lessor of the two evils, likely for the foreseeable future, if not forever(:).
2.
now, having been educated by 毛主席, and having seen the "dark" side of white society, Chinese "common" people are even more 左 than TG top itself.
and among TG top, red gen II folks, are more 左 than those Jiang and Hu engineers.
家园 是的 “理论用错了对象”，就是我的意思。
不过制度优势并不是我朝光速崛起的最关键因素。人均产值低才是。
家园 花一个 总结的挺到位的。可为什么换个地方就有人评价“完全发散的天马行空的思考，大概是事倍功半的，或者是完全无益的；更不用说如果违背了客观病理，甚至会带来有害的结果。”