主题：方励之和钱学森 - 谁的物理好 -- bos

ROGER D. NELSON "Wishing for Good Weather: A Natural Experiment in Group Consciousness," Journal of Scientific Exploration, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 47-58, 1997

---------- 摘要 ------------

Many human activities are affected by the weather, and there is a long history of rituals and ceremonial efforts aimed at controlling it. In modem societies, such efforts are largely vestigial and amount to informal hoping or wishing for good weather for special occasions. Reunion and commencement activities at Princeton University, involving thousands of alumni, graduates, family and others, are held outdoors, and it is often remarked that they are almost always blessed with good weather. A comparison of the recorded rainfall in Princeton vs. nearby communities shows that there is significantly less rain, less often, in Princeton on those days with major outdoor activities.

---------- 结语 ------------

Although many of us wish fervently for nice weather for special occasions,and some are even motivated to offer up a little prayer, it doesn't seem likely that many of us believe it will do any good. A modern education (such as Princeton delivers) tends to include a surfeit of implicit reasons and arguments against such an eventuality, and it certainly doesn't fit easily within our current scientific models of the world. Yet, we recognize that these models are incomplete,perhaps most glaringly because they have so little to say about human consciousness, including such hopes and wishes as might, possibly, affect the weather.

We have recently learned to view weather patterns in terms of chaos theory,where infinitesimally small effects can expand into great changes; the beat of a Brazilian butterfly wing may propagate through complex weather systems to cause a downpour in a small New Jersey town. Could the effects of communal interest from a great concentration of Princetonians compete with that butterfly wing?

A look at actual weather data seems to suggest that precipitation tends to stay away from Princeton for the P-Rade, and Class Day, and Commencement,to a somewhat unlikely degree. These intriguing results certainly aren't strong enough to compel belief, but the case presents a very challenging possibility,because if the analysis is correct, the only good candidate to explain the apparent differences, other than chance, would seem to be an influence from an informal but powerful communal wish for dry weather. In any case, it surely is premature to conclude, as the graffito has it, that God went to Princeton, but we may need to reconsider the old saw, "Everyone talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it."

全文 外链出处

是我最近得出的人生体会：

假设你非常非常看不惯一个人，甚至那个人的个人素质以及见识水平等等很多方面的确是非常差劲，可是人家工作来还是比你认真，学习起来比你更努力，在这种情况下，虽然你占了无比的道德和审美和无数种XXX优势，但基本上还是可以说：你不如他！

我想钱老可能就是这个样子。你固然不赞同什么“论马克思主义哲学在科学中的指导作用”这种在你看来可笑的话题，但人家就是在这种“荒谬”的哲学方法指导下取得了了不起的成就。

这种事情还有一个例子，我一直都很骄傲自己是一个无神论者，觉得那些信宗教的人非常可笑，不知道为什么而活着，可是他们中的很多人依然成就要比我高的多，甚至个人素质也普遍比我强的多。。。他们在一个错误的战略里优美的活着和贡献着？我甚至都没法指责他们。

最后一点，对马哲（纯哲学部分）虽然谈不上有多深刻的认识，但我个人还是非常佩服的，而且也是正以此指导自己对人生观和对世界的认识，自认还算有点见识：） 从这一点来说，并不一定就是钱老错了，只是每个人的方法不同而已。还有了，没有一点意识形态的价值感召，他怎么可能抗争了5年最终回到祖国？年轻时代的价值观对他的影响是巨大的，请不要用现代的眼光去苛求上一代人。也许你不赞同他们的这种哲学观和意识形态（现在中共官方都不怎么讲这个了），可是他们恰恰就是在这种精神指导和激励下为新中国取得了巨大的成就和贡献，你能说他们是错的吗？

我大学里的导师是个比较杰出的留俄博士，据他跟我们讲，跟钱老交流是一种享受。。。这应该也是一种参考意见吧！