主题：【美元走势】最大的债券基金怎么看 -- 西风陶陶

Falling Dollar Not the U.S.'s Problem, Pimco's McCulley Says

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The falling dollar isn't a problem for the U.S. and shouldn't be stemmed by the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates, said Paul McCulley, who helps manage about $100 billion at Pacific Investment Management Co.

The other six members of the Group of Seven industrialized nations should fight gains in their currencies by cutting interest rates, McCulley wrote in a commentary on the Web site of the Newport Beach, California-based company. Pimco is a unit of Allianz AG and manages the world's largest bond fund.

``The dollar is America's currency, but a falling dollar is not America's problem,'' McCulley wrote. ``Instead, rising non- dollar currencies that mirror a falling dollar are a foreign growth-stunting problem, and the problem that other G-7 nations should address with reflationary monetary policies.''

Finance ministers from the G-7 nations start a two-day meeting today in Boca Raton, Florida. Members of the G-7 are the U.S., Japan, Germany, France, the U.K., Italy and Canada. The euro, which is Europe's common currency, and the Canadian dollar both rose more than 20 percent against the dollar in 2003.

The perception that the Fed may be trying to support the dollar with higher interest rates gathered steam after the central bank last week dropped the term ``considerable period'' from its statement on how long it can keep interest rates low just, McCulley said.

With the phrase, which was dropped just before the G-7 meeting, the Fed had made it certain that creating jobs and preventing deflation were its primary goals, ``and this is the way it should be,'' he said.

Past Mistakes

Fed policy makers should be wary of making the same mistakes as G-7 finance ministers at the Louvre in 1987, when they agreed to cooperate to stop the decline of the dollar through coordinated monetary policy, he said. The Louvre Accord reversed the 1985 Plaza Accord that resulted in a coordinated depreciation of the U.S. currency.

The problems started when Germany's Bundesbank broke the Louvre agreement by raising its target rate in September 1987 even though the German deutsche mark was rising. Then Treasury Secretary James Baker indicated the U.S. wouldn't defend the dollar, causing the bond market to tumble and the stock market to crash that October as investors speculated the Fed would begin ``draconian tightening'' to bolster the dollar, McCulley said.

The agreement set at the Louvre was ``a very dangerous precedent,'' he said. ``That episode created the impression that America would repeatedly tighten monetary policy, if the dollar were to weaken -- to wit, that the Fed had made a pact with the devil at the Louvre.''

Greenspan, Dollar

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has indicated he isn't concerned about the falling dollar. Last month he said the currency's depreciation hadn't yet resulted in faster inflation and that the U.S. is able to fund its near-record current account deficit, which includes trade in goods and services.

``There is, for the moment, little evidence of stress in funding U.S. current account deficits,'' Greenspan said in a Berlin speech. ``To date, the widening to record levels of the U.S. ratio of current account deficit to GDP has been, with the exception of the dollar's exchange rate, seemingly uneventful.''

Greenspan also said he's ``quite optimistic'' there won't be a dollar crisis because individual economies are more flexible than in the past, and ``inflation, the typical symptom of a weak currency, appears quiescent.''

Treasury Secretary John Snow this week suggested he would resist European calls at the G-7 meeting to counter the dollar's slide, saying the value of currencies is ``best set in open, competitive markets,'' reinforcing speculation the U.S. wants a weaker dollar to foster global growth.

``What the world needs is for all G-7 currencies to fall relative to a basket of globally traded goods and services, rather than just for the dollar to fall,'' McCulley said. That will be the U.S.'s position at the G-7 meeting, he said.

老潘在学理上属于比较保守的阵营，基本把防止通胀作为央行的首要的也是最重大的目标。声称其货币政策对国际收支平衡和股票市场的干扰视而不见。

欧洲央行的骨干是德国央行，Bundesbank历来是欧洲最保守的货币政策制定者，也是全世界最独立于政府的央行之一。如果你看欧洲银行的使命，只有一句话：The main objective of Europe Central Bank is to maintain the price stability: safeguarding the value of Euro. 欧行的第一任行长好象是德国中央银行的行长。

另外跟决策程序可能也有关系，要把这么多国家的意见和情况考虑周到了。

欧元等等政治、经济和身份认同等问题上，就是不从。

对欧洲研究倒是停透彻的。你要严肃的话，BBC的一个网站不错：

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/europe/02/euro_borders/html/default.stm

用你的幽默感到时候给我们大话一下严肃的话题。

美金在伦敦易手，纽约和东京的外汇交易总还不到伦敦的一半吧[几年前的数，待核实]。咱们敬爱的王雪冰同志就是在中国银行伦敦做外汇交易员起家锻炼了一把，后获得委以重任。

欧洲的竞争力在可以遇见的未来是没有办法可以跟美国的自由市场相比的，国家干预和保护比美国强很多。

英国人也不太可能在短时间内加入欧元。除非有重大事件发生改变英国人的世界观。加入了欧元也未必能和美元的地位相比。

那位敬爱的四十二岁就当了行长的同志最后是以受贿100多万人民币被搞定，什么天才外汇交易员，毙了他一个，还有千万人呀。

就算短期内无法赶上，会不会美国的相对优势减弱？还有欧洲发展最快的会是哪个板块？东欧么？

另外有件事情猜不透，一边POWELL在警告普京不要在邻国乱搞，一边又要在欧洲裁军，这是怎么回事？欧洲不再需要美国的“军事援助”，以后大西洋两岸象对手更多一些，是吗？

现在每天有2000个墨西哥人偷渡到美国。Hispanics 生育率又高，现在美国南方已经是Hispanic的天下。50年以后我们的孩子们的孩子们考托福就是西语了。

欧洲才是人口老化的重灾区，到2030，欧洲约减少三千多万人劳动力。每四个人中间一个人超过65岁，还有两个基接近五十，剩下一个可能是年青人。那时后就大量从北非移民来填补空缺。届时你我重游欧洲看到的全是黑人和阿拉伯人了。

这个世界变化快得很。有空看看这篇文章。战略和国际关系研究所的《全球老龄化挑战》报告：http://csis.org/gai/GlobalAging.pdf

"not in my life time!"