主题：2009年开始的几大猜想 -- 凡影随风

monetary multiple. Check Bloomberg to see how big the debt issue pipeline is. The new issue has more than tripled last two months than three months ago. Also deal making has regained some momentum recently. Subscribe the Journal's deal daily and you will see that. My observation is that banks have never stopped chasing for good opportunities and are just WAITING for clearer signals to move forward. Capitalists are not dying but capitalism is.

复 Do not undersestimate the

家园

老实说我是凭直觉和经验判断

春节这段时间掌握信息不够 --看英文网站比较累春节时期休息一下不过在金融新形势下如果看好通膨的人多了也许在某个signal指引下杠杆回复会成为自我实现的预言？但我还是认为概率很低要炒作也得有个炒作热点，banker们去炒什么呢？

复中国的国土和人口规模摆在这里

家园

同样中国的国土和人口规模摆在这里，怎么看晚清和民国？

复老实说我是凭直觉和经验判断

家园

What I tried to say is

banks are always looking for good deals. The problem two months ago was lack of good deals. Now things are changing a bit. One, banks are adjusting their target rates of return due to dramatic drops in funding costs (for example, LIBOR is around 30-40bps now while it was 200-300bps two months ago.) Two, the Administration is forcing banks to begin lending. While banks were reluctant to do so in Bush's term, they may have to do so in Obama's term because the new President is willing to use every leverage he possess. Yesterday, some was proposing a $400K cap of total compensation package for all Wall Street executives, which will threaten those big guys to do what Government demands. Today, the President has promised lowering mortgage rates, and in my opinion he has a lot of political capital to drive that.

In short, when we read U.S., we tend to believe the loose control over Banks by government. It is old story now. Banks will begin to lend and the multiple will kick in. Nonetheless, I do not believe an inflation implosion is imminent, just simply because the government does not want one at this moment.

复我朋友给我的话对我启发很大

家园

牛年第一朵花！！

牛年第一朵花，哈哈，看来今年运气不错，三年计划争取两年完成。

[FLY]恭喜：你意外获得【通宝】一枚

谢谢：作者意外获得【通宝】一枚

鲜花已经成功送出。

此次送花为【有效送花赞扬，涨乐善、声望】[/FLY]

复你说的极是，关键就是这一句

家园

中国怎么拖美国后腿？

得靠主动出击，被动守城没力度。