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主题:2009年开始的几大猜想 -- 凡影随风

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家园 我自己早几年就写过相关的文字的

del

家园 托克马克的问题不是某个技术细节不过关

而是维持时间和维持复杂性的指数关系。

此路不通,看看就好。

家园 再明白的说是不是生产力的发展要求生产关系作出相应改变了

马克思的定理再次发挥作用。

家园 你是幽默性不足

对于严肃的东西,一定要娱乐化,解构化,庸俗化。

家园 说的简单而明白,花谢
家园 谢了
家园 Do not undersestimate the

monetary multiple. Check Bloomberg to see how big the debt issue pipeline is. The new issue has more than tripled last two months than three months ago. Also deal making has regained some momentum recently. Subscribe the Journal's deal daily and you will see that. My observation is that banks have never stopped chasing for good opportunities and are just WAITING for clearer signals to move forward. Capitalists are not dying but capitalism is.

家园 老实说 我是凭直觉和经验判断

春节这段时间 掌握信息不够 --看英文网站比较累 春节时期休息一下 不过 在金融新形势下 如果看好通膨的人多了也许在某个signal指引下杠杆回复会成为自我实现的预言? 但我还是认为概率很低 要炒作也得有个炒作热点 ,banker们去炒什么呢?

家园 同样中国的国土和人口规模摆在这里,怎么看晚清和民国?
家园 What I tried to say is

banks are always looking for good deals. The problem two months ago was lack of good deals. Now things are changing a bit. One, banks are adjusting their target rates of return due to dramatic drops in funding costs (for example, LIBOR is around 30-40bps now while it was 200-300bps two months ago.) Two, the Administration is forcing banks to begin lending. While banks were reluctant to do so in Bush's term, they may have to do so in Obama's term because the new President is willing to use every leverage he possess. Yesterday, some was proposing a $400K cap of total compensation package for all Wall Street executives, which will threaten those big guys to do what Government demands. Today, the President has promised lowering mortgage rates, and in my opinion he has a lot of political capital to drive that.

In short, when we read U.S., we tend to believe the loose control over Banks by government. It is old story now. Banks will begin to lend and the multiple will kick in. Nonetheless, I do not believe an inflation implosion is imminent, just simply because the government does not want one at this moment.

家园 牛年第一朵花!!

牛年第一朵花,哈哈,看来今年运气不错,三年计划争取两年完成。

[FLY]恭喜:你意外获得【通宝】一枚

谢谢:作者意外获得【通宝】一枚

鲜花已经成功送出。

此次送花为【有效送花赞扬,涨乐善、声望】[/FLY]

家园 中国怎么拖美国后腿?

得靠主动出击,被动守城没力度。

靠扶欧元打击美圆吗?还要斗而不破。好难!

太明显了,美国就主要对付你了。

家园 【原创】可以结合看看M2

尽管美国基础货币已经爆发性增长,08年8月~11月增长高达一万亿美元,但同期M2只增长几千亿美元,因此去除基础货币的增长,美国M2已经下降不少,不公布的M3下降幅度很可能更大。

在相当长时间内,此次美国去杠杆化过程基本是不可逆的:首先,银行资本已经消耗殆尽,在资本充足率要求下,银行扩张能力已经大大削弱;其次,金融市场功能极大下降,银行资产证券化能力下降;第三,美国整个信用体系已经遭受重创,并且将进一步深入,等。

家园 请教葡萄一个问题

那美国是根据什么去判断中国有足够的战斗力去打一场满足美国需要的仗呢?

家园 要是能参与就更好了

看来你我年龄相差不大:D

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