主题：【讨论】新闻评述：铁矿石和定价权 -- 井底望天
表面上看中国的能源消费很高，但是这些能源消耗所支持的工业生产能力有相当大的部分被用于生产出口产品，再加上人口因素，人均的能源消耗能否排进前50名都不好说，老美可主要都是供国内消费。
嗨，都怪中国发展太快了。
局面呢？
远的，当年我曾经经手过的华能兼并浙铝，10几亿的资产，作价3亿不到，华能的做法也是符合股东利益最大化。近的，山东钢铁集团兼并日照，一个连年亏损大户，兼并一个一直盈利大户，兼并肯定符合山钢的股东利益最大化。可他兼并的依靠呢？是从银行拿了1200亿的授信，而日照确被银行回收了2亿多信贷资金。呵呵，好一句股东利益最大化。
只不过越来越短兵相接而已。那时争的是话语权，而今争的却是定价权了。谁输谁赢，还在未定之天。
能源消耗比德国还多（人口是德国的1/3），和俄罗斯一样，取暖用能很厉害，而且都是矿业和能源大国，对于节能就不太在乎。
中澳的合同内容是中方共出$500亿每年购买澳洲225万吨液化石油气,一直购买20年,总共4500万吨. 文章说这相当于20年按照每吨$1111的平均价购买澳洲的液化石油气. 可问题是:目前的市场价格为每吨$393,而即使按照预期到2013年,液化石油气的价格才是$450一吨. 即使再往后,其价格也才是大概$600一吨.
文章作者实在是奇怪为什么中国人竟然愿意以几乎天价来购买液化石油气. 于是到处试图采访澳方公司负责人,均吃闭门羹. 一名中方官员叫Liu Weijiang, 的只是说该价格是澳方出的,别的啥也不说 "a spokesman for PetroChina in Beijing, said the $50 billion price tag ''came from the Australian side'' .
文章网址 http://business.smh.com.au/business/50b-value-placed-on-china-gas-deal-looks-a-little-stretched-20090819-eqjw.html
文章内容:
$50b value placed on China gas deal looks a little stretchedMathew Murphy
August 20, 2009
DOUBTS have been raised about the legitimacy of the $50 billion figure for the Government's historic gas deal with China. Based on current liquefied natural gas prices and analysts' forecasts of how high they will go, the figure appears optimistic.
Under the deal, struck on Tuesday, ExxonMobil will supply 2.25 million tonnes of LNG a year from its Chevron-operated Gorgon field off the West Australian coast over 20 years - a total of 45 million tonnes. That assumes an average LNG price of $1111 over the length of the deal.
Present LNG prices, according to a recent financial summary from Goldman Sachs JBWere, are about $US322 ($393) a tonne.
According to the Government's own commodities forecaster, ABARE, LNG prices are expected to rise as the oil price increases and are predicted to have an export value of about $450 a tonne by 2013. That would value the PetroChina deal at just over $20 billion - less than half the trumpeted $50 billion.
The resources analyst Adrian Prendergast, of Baillieu's, said his long-term forecasts for LNG would leave the project well short of the $50 billion.
''We are expecting $400 to $500 by 2013 and then a long-term price of $600 per tonne for LNG,'' he said. At $600 a tonne the project is valued at $27 billion.
When BusinessDay contacted ExxonMobil and Resources Minister Martin Ferguson's office to ask how the figure was reached, both sides refused to claim responsibility, saying it had come from the other.
After calls back and forth, an ExxonMobil spokeswoman, Gemma Allman, said the $50 billion was an ExxonMobil figure. She refused to answer any questions about how it could possibly be as high as $50 billion given current or future LNG prices, saying the deal was ''commercial in confidence.''
Liu Weijiang, a spokesman for PetroChina in Beijing, said the $50 billion price tag ''came from the Australian side'' without providing the oil giant's own valuation of the deal.
A spokesman for Mr Ferguson said he had no reason to doubt the authenticity of the figure.
''On all the available information, we believe it is a very reasonable figure and we stand by it,'' he said.
In 2007, Woodside Petroleum agreed to key terms for supplying 2 million to 3 million tonnes of LNG to PetroChina, the same customer as ExxonMobil, in a deal worth about $45 billion, according to Woodside's chief executive, Don Voelte.
That means PetroChina potentially would pay $5 billion less under the Woodside deal to receive more LNG. In its latest production report, Woodside received $345 a tonne for LNG during the June 2009 quarter.
按惯例，天然气长期协议价一般与油价挂钩，同时设定一个地板价和一个天花板价格，当油价低于或高于某价格后，天然气价格不变。很可能是无良记者为轰动效应或者完全不懂搞出来的。
反正中石油网站上的介绍只有量，没有价。如果这是真实的一口价，中石油的党委估计得全进去了。
当然，中石油主要指望的气源不是澳洲，而是中亚。里海到上海的横穿亚洲大陆输气管和输油管，霍霍，工程奇迹啊
就是加拿大和英国的能源消费有点奇怪，英国的消费量好像少了点。
下面有一段是印度公司在同一项目购买LNG的消息
PETRONET LNG : MEDIA CENTER
ExxonMobil and Petronet Sign Gorgon LNG Supply Agreement
Date: Aug 10, 2009
Perth, Australia, August 10, 2009-- An Australian subsidiary of Exxon Mobil Corporation and Petronet LNG Limited today signed a Sales and Purchase Agreement (SPA) for the long term supply of liquified natural gas (LNG) from the proposed Gorgon LNG Project in Western Australia.
The SPA is for supply of approximately 1.5 mtpa(million tonnes per annum) of Exxon Mobil's share of LNG from the Gorgon LNG Project over a 20-year term. LNG cargoes will be delivered to a new terminal under construction at Kochi in Southern India.
Documents formalizing the SPA were signed in Perth, Australia by ExxonMobil's Luke Musgrave, Vice President-Australia LNG, and Petronet LNG Managing Director, Prosad Dasgupta.
Signing the SPA between ExxonMobil and Petronet are: Luke Musgrove, Vice President Australian LNG, Western Australian Premier Colin Barnett and Prosad Dasgupta, MD Petronet
"This historic agreement is the first long-term sale of LNG from Australia to India," said Mr. Musgrave. "We welcome Petronet LNG as a foundation customer for the Gorgon LNG Project and look forward to a long successful relationship."
Mr. Dasgupta said, "I am very pleased to finalise this long term agreement for the provision of LNG to our new terminal in Kochi, supporting more than (US)$2 billion of related energy infrastructure investment in India. Energy consumers in Kerala state will now have access to a clean burning base load fuel, which will enhance the economic development of the region and maintain the pristine ecology of Kerala."
The Gorgon LNG Project, in which the ExxonMobil susidiary holds a 25 percents share, will include three mtpa LNG processing trains. A final investment decision is anticipated later this year.
Media contacts:
ExxonMobil: Richard Ellis, Senior Public Affairs Adviser: +61 8 9320 5436 or +61 429 270 425
Petronet LNG: Mr P Dasgupta, email: [email protected]
人口应该是德国队三分之二吧，耗能也差不多。
因为说到底其实是政治问题引起的经济问题。希望蛙兄也把澳洲深入研究一下，让那样日耳曼人海盗的后裔也四面楚歌，匍匐在巨龙脚下。
广东的LNG，中海油拿的二十年长协价比市场价估计低了百分之七十，搞到深圳现在的天然气价格比内地西气东输的价格还要低。