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家园 才一个冷冬能得出什么结论呢

一些人又想借此成名了。

说2013年夏天北极圈将无冰,AR4里面没有,负责任的没有这么预言的。目前可靠的数据是截止到2005年北极最小海冰面积的变化仅仅是每十年减少7.4%,这个变化的误差还很大,+-2.4%。即使这个速度是可靠的并且能保持,要完全消除夏季北极海冰,也需要一百多年,还早着呢。怎么可能会说2013年无冰。

这也不是第一次海冰大面积增加,1997年比2007年增加的还多,增加了差不多150万平方公里。

点看全图
外链图片需谨慎,可能会被源头改

连续多个冷冬的情况下,才会对大趋势有影响。

查了一下,是记者误读,引用的是IPCC的科学家Mojib Latif。

外链出处

The subject of this article, Mojib Latif, has challenged the Daily Mail article and it’s interpretation. In another story at the Guardian, Latif says the interpretation by the Daily Mail and a similar story in the Telegraph is wrongly interpreting his work

卫报上的回应

外链出处

A leading scientist has hit out at misleading newspaper reports that linked his research to claims that the current cold weather undermines the scientific case for manmade global warming.

Mojib Latif, a climate expert at the Leibniz Institute at Kiel University in Germany, said he "cannot understand" reports that used his research to question the scientific consensus on climate change.

He told the Guardian: "It comes as a surprise to me that people would try to use my statements to try to dispute the nature of global warming. I believe in manmade global warming. I have said that if my name was not Mojib Latif it would be global warming."

He added: "There is no doubt within the scientific community that we are affecting the climate, that the climate is changing and responding to our emissions of greenhouse gases."

A report in the Mail on Sunday said that Latif's results "challenge some of the global warming orthodoxy's most deeply cherished beliefs" and "undermine the standard climate computer models". Monday's Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph repeated the claims.

The reports attempted to link the Arctic weather that has enveloped the UK with research published by Latif's team in the journal Nature in 2008. The research said that natural fluctuations in ocean temperature could have a bigger impact on global temperature than expected. In particular, the study concluded that cooling in the oceans could offset global warming, with the average temperature over the decades 2000-2010 and 2005-2015 predicted to be no higher than the average for 1994-2004. Despite clarifications from the scientists at the time, who stressed that the research did not challenge the predicted long-term warming trend, the study was widely misreported as signalling a switch from global warming to global cooling.

The Mail on Sunday article said that Latif's research showed that the current cold weather heralds such "a global trend towards cooler weather".

It said: "The BBC assured viewers that the big chill was was merely short-term 'weather' that had nothing to do with 'climate', which was still warming. The work of Prof Latif and the other scientists refutes that view."

Not according to Latif. "They are not related at all," he said. "What we are experiencing now is a weather phenomenon, while we talked about the mean temperature over the next 10 years. You can't compare the two."

He said the ocean temperature effect was similar to other natural influences on global temperature, such as volcanos, which cool the planet temporarily as ash spewed into the atmosphere reflects sunlight.

"The natural variation occurs side by side with the manmade warming. Sometimes it has a cooling effect and can offset this warming and other times it can accelerate it." Other scientists have questioned the strength of the ocean effect on overall temperature and disagree that global warming will show the predicted pause.

Latif said his research suggested that up to half the warming seen over the 20th century was down to this natural ocean effect, but said that was consistent with the 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "No climate specialist would ever say that 100% of the warming we have seen is down to greenhouse gas emissions."

The recent articles are not the first to misrepresent his research, Latif said. "There are numerous newspapers, radio stations and television channels all trying to get our attention. Some overstate and some want to downplay the problem as a way to get that attention," he said. "We are trying to discuss in the media a highly complex issue. Nobody would discuss the problem of [Einstein's theory of] relativity in the media. But because we all experience the weather, we all believe that we can assess the global warming problem."

家园 洪秀全?

可惜是family name

家园 这个他们是搬起石头砸了自己的脚

他们在强制推广他们的变暖扩大化理念时,用天气偷换了气候的概念。现在即使气候变化大趋势不变,老百姓却习惯性的用天气去套了。

家园 你,有才

真笨啊!脑子转了个弯才明白你说的啥意思。

家园 雅虎上面转载了新华社英文版的一条新闻

评论分三类:不信、吃醋、骂巴马。感兴趣可以去瞧瞧。

http://buzz.yahoo.com/article/1:y_news:f2987adca49a9a12516dc2a348361803/China-says-missile-defense-system-test-successful-AP

家园 不吱声可能是TG真打人七寸上了

天天叫唤中国威胁论,跟“狼来了”似的。这回好,小白兔一咧嘴,露出一口狼牙……

家园 百八十个,太多了,每个最多给79个,地主家也没余粮啊
家园 我啥也没写

现在觉得很有认证的必要。要不回个帖子太麻烦别人了。

家园 因为他们在犹豫着发贺电好还是抗议好啊...
家园 BS一下,还不如国内的CCAV呢

人家请的叫兽解释说:变冷更证明了这是全球“温室效应”的危害。我边听边想:不知道马尔代夫的总统看见全球冷成这样,会不会后悔他那几滴眼泪

家园 妙文

鬼子们估计眨巴着眼睛琢磨:为什么呢?

家园 统一口径报道是标准的媒体控制

这个跟中宣部通稿一样了。

家园 雅尔塔体系破灭了,地球进入新时代了。
家园 哈哈,原来村长是因为身处南半球炎热夏季才觉得全球气候变暖

啊。。。

那我们北半球的现在觉得这几年冬天越来越冷。我就信全球气候变冷了。。。

家园 一平均就不知道怎么回事了

所以个人的感觉不靠谱的。

而且气候讲的是五年十年长周期的变化,和一两年的气候现象是两回事。

有空看一下我写的IPCC报告介绍,看不懂的地方请提意见。

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