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主题:【原创】难道利比亚也要变?中东预测之二 -- 种植园土

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家园 好久没看到这么痛快的了

正气!人所以为人就是因为有股子精神力量

家园 那不好比

说难听点日本兵个个黄继光,董存瑞的...日本人玩的是国际博弈。珍珠港是日本人的冒险成功的太顺了。从日俄战争一直到珍珠港,日本人就木失手过。

家园 是撤,不是进,这是战略收缩了。
家园 那个主要应该是德国人席卷欧洲给闹的 小鬼子眼睛不红很难的

国际博弈也是比我们精明太多的。 我们像抗美援朝,美国人在一开始(没记错的话是1951年1月13日)就给我们要求停战了,可老毛的目标居然是要把美国人赶下海。像援越援出了个白眼狼。还有非洲,居然还有非洲红利和第三世界老大的说法,可有谁能举出个我们在非洲获得了什么红利了(甭管是个体户的还是大型国企的),我们是谁的老大了。要说真聪明还只有老江算一个,一个是上合,一个从他执政以来的历次国际政治危机都被他以柔克刚地化解。老蒋也算半个吧,从开始的联美压日改订新约运动到抗战时的对美国的利用与对英美德苏日的制衡这些都为国家民族的生存奠定了基石,但是内政上却是一塌糊涂不能吸引吸收那些满怀理想抱负的愤青,所以只能算半个吧。

家园 毛还是不了解情况

毛严重低估了米军的作战能力。二次战役米军被打得狂撤,主要原因是求稳。局势其实并没有到不可收拾:中国军队的穿插部队其实也是竭尽全力了。但是米为了不崩盘,做了大踏步的撤退。这给中国军队和毛一个错觉:米军害怕了。志愿军无论那个方面(后勤还是作战,步炮,空地协调)其实和米军有严重的差距。这个时候,志愿军居然还有全歼米军师的幻想。

可惜了老蒋,至今还被愤青们骂的体无完肤。他倒是个国际政治玩家,玩的水平高。相比之下,汪精卫就差多了。

家园 汪精卫就一个纯粹的左粪 抗日是他喊的最响 卖国又走在前头

这种人占据党国要职纯属祸害。一个领导人怎么好色怎么贪污怎么自私都不是最可怕的,最可怕的是无能、没眼光,这样连别的(同事或手下)有能力的想干事情的人都没法干事。

家园 情色水担心的是我们出兵利比亚维和
家园 卖国走在前面

汪精卫的确木眼光,就是哗众取宠的政客。抗日对他而言就是个政治牌。踏踏实实做抗日的事情的人是蒋。

家园 出兵维和也是撤。看来,收缩回来,配合老大,是主旋律。
家园 我记得是中学的时候有看过一个审判陈璧君的材料

陈璧君大义凛然地质问法官:“是谁把河山丢了,蒋介石是不是?是谁把河山从日本人手里拿回来的,是不是汪精卫?那为什么蒋介石不是汉奸反而说精卫是汉奸?”(凭记忆可能有误)

后来看四人帮的材料,感觉也是一回事。有个什么项目被引进来了,四人帮就开始大义凛然地审查,要人拼命地检讨,拿个礼物或送个礼物都要被批成卖国批成反革命。可这帮人自己生活却是,跟金家一模一样吧。

家园 汪精卫是中国的民族英雄的前提是日本胜

日本败了,他就是个crap. 老蒋么,即使日本胜利了,他还是有本钱和日本做交易的。汪精卫么,日本败了,就一点价值都没有了。 还好死的早,不然也要字啊胸口拿笔画个靶子来自尽了。

但时赖老蒋丢了中国,是说老蒋在上海大打出手把。

家园 新出炉的分析文章

China to stay a low-key gambler in Middle East

* China has growing energy stakes and business ties

* But lacks means and will to take on strong political role

* Economic expectations may increase pressures

By Chris Buckley

BEIJING, March 1(Reuters) - Even with Middle Eastern tumult tearing down governments and pushing up oil prices, China will stay a restrained regional player, reluctant to gamble a growing pile of economic chips for uncertain political gains.

The Middle East is one part of the world where giddy talk about China converting its mercantile strength and energy needs into diplomatic activism runs up against ingrained Chinese caution and deep-rooted U.S. dominance.

The weekend brought a telling signal of China's approach.

China briskly dropped its traditional caveats about "non-interference" in other nations' domestic problems to back U.N. Security Council sanctions on Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi and his closest supporters.

"China's big bet is on maintaining comity with the United States," said John Garver, a professor at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta who studies China's ties with the Middle East and nearby regions.

China wants to avoid messy entanglements with often rival Middle East countries and has no appetite for turning the regional upheaval into a point of confrontation with the United States, said Yin Gang, an expert on the region at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank in Beijing.

"Chinese military and ideological influence doesn't amount to anything that the West has to worry about. China shows no signs of seeking to expand that influence in a major way," said Yin.

"China will remain focused on doing business in the Middle East after the region settles down," he said.

China will focus on buying oil and gas, selling manufactured goods, and sometimes acting as a diplomatic spoiler to protect energy interests, especially against possible sanctions on Iran, and hedge against U.S. influence.

But it will leave guarding the shipping lanes vital for oil to the United States.

Beijing will also want to ensure Islamic countries that have overthrown authoritarian governments do not become more sympathetic to the ethnic Uighur Muslim minority in China's far west Xinjiang region, the site of bloody ethnic unrest in 2009.

China's energy stakes in the Middle East could eventually draw it into a more assertive role there, and longer-term even a firm naval presence, building on its forays into anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden, say some analysts.

But that day is far off.

"Middle Eastern authoritarian regimes that survive the upheaval -- especially Saudi Arabia -- may well look upon China as a more reliable supporter than the U.S.," said Garver, in emailed answers to questions. China is already Saudi Arabia's biggest oil customer.

"But the problem is that China is simply not prepared, materially or psychologically, to meet the security needs of those countries."

STICKING TO BUSINESS

The scale of China's commercial links across the Middle East and north Africa is clear in the tens of thousands of Chinese workers fleeing Libya. Chinese building, energy, and trading companies have been expanding throughout the region, sometimes in places too low-paying or hostile for Western companies.

Chinese trade with Libya grew to $6.6 billion last year, a rise of 27 percent on 2009 levels, according to Chinese statistics. China's trade with Egypt grew by 19.1 percent.

In many Arab countries, China is "viewed positively in part due to either the backlash against European colonial powers or perceived American intervention", said Ben Simpfendorfer, managing director of China Insider, a Hong Kong-based consultancy, who specialises on China-Middle East ties.

Above all, there is oil. About half of China's crude imports last year came from the Middle East and North Africa, according to Chinese data. China wants to diversify supplies, but Arab countries and Iran hold so much of global reserves that there will be no escaping heavy purchases from there.

Middle Eastern countries that have overthrown authoritarian governments are unlikely to dwell on China's reluctance to condemn their fallen leaders, said John Calabrese, a scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

"To the extent that they need customers for their commodities and foreign direct investment in their economies, memories of China's position (or lack of one) in the political upheaval could prove short," he said in emailed comments.

Some Chinese scholars, former diplomats and military officers have urged Beijing to secure its energy stake by becoming more assertive in the Middle East, pushing against U.S. influence and building firmer friendships with Arab countries.

Certainly, wariness of U.S. intentions runs deep in China's ruling circles, and that has surely been magnified by suspicion that Washington backs calls for copy-cat protests against one-party rule in Chinese cities. Police have smothered any efforts to act on those calls.

But China's diplomatic line appears more nuanced. In a recent briefing, a senior foreign policy official steered clear of conspiracy views for the Middle Eastern unrest, instead citing economic malaise and tardy reforms.

Some aloofness from Middle Eastern politics suits China, which has no desire to be pulled deep into regional disputes, especially between Israel and the Palestinians, said a Western diplomat in Beijing who closely follows Middle Eastern affairs.

"Policy-makers would be scared to make big moves in the Middle East and get stuck in some quagmire," he said. He spoke on condition his name was not used. "Even if they recognise a strategic opportunity, they don't really have the instruments."

China may find it harder to stay entirely above the messy Middle Eastern fray as its economic interests and international profile grow.

If mishandled, Chinese exports and labour could become a source of friction, especially with new governments striving to create more jobs for their own young people, said Simpfendorfer.

"It has provided cheap consumer goods to the region, but can it provide jobs? ... That will be critical going forward." (Additional reporting by Wee Sui-Lee; Editing by Robert Birsel)

你昨天讲的国内政治代价是指我们不能仿照卡扎菲一样向游行示威群众开枪吗?


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家园 应该说没有老蒋中国的历史不堪设想 你分析下这篇文章

链接出处

现在美国已经向利比亚方向出动军舰了。

家园 您这提问角度,怎么回答都是罪呀。

“深挖洞,广积粮,不称霸”。这里的老大,指的是MD。

家园 中国还不如二十世纪初的日本

无法保护自己的海外利益。具备了帝国的经济结构但是没有帝国的武备。中国海外经济利益的扩展和当地的利益摩擦终究会升级起来吧。

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