主题：【整理】zt China helpEurope, AF -- parishg
2008年的华尔街，只知道向美国政府要救济了。你现在能看到任何一点美国财团会再次重现当时情况的迹象吗？
当年那样的适应力和行动力，如今只能在中国看到了。这也就是为什么大家都认为中国会崛起取代美国成为下一个强国原因。
a referendum, which scared out the shit even for those pro-European financial elites back in China.
不怕狼一样的敌人，就怕猪一样的战友--and Greek PM clearly belongs to the 2nd category. One man played a political gamble at the expense of his own nation as well as ALL THE EUROLAND.
语言不详但恐怕不是空穴来风--secret agreement broke down just in the last moment. that's it.
送花成功。有效送花赞扬。感谢：作者获得通宝一枚。
参数变化，作者，声望:1；铢钱:16。你，乐善:1；铢钱:-1。本帖花:1
their emergency aid to fellow Europeans.
You think those PIIGs Europeans will be able to return money to Chinese??
In the last 11 years, I remember the French gov. only had gov. fiscal surplus for 1 year--all other years, the budget is never balanced. France is still a AAA nation in Europe... You can figure out the case for other PIIGs by yourself.
在10年后人民币国际化后再分10年还清， 这还是问题吗？
--haha, it will not happen at all. You do not understand how democratic nations work. All politicians have tendency to spend money to buy votes. Fiscal discipline was imposed by the debt market, THERE IS NO SELF DISCIPLINE THROUGH THE democratic system itself.
借出的人民币其实就没准备被还过
--you are too generous. I feel lucky that you are not one of the top Chinese leaders.
I SUPPOSE ANY NORMAL CREDITORS WANT TO LEND MONEY AND COLLECT MONEY AND INTEREST BACK. I studied credit market for long time and your generosity really shocks me.
If you know that borrowers will default for sure, why do you even want to lend out?
最会玩这个的其实是印度人
学习英国的传统
比如说，你是个美女，我想捡你便宜，我就故意碰一下你的手，你没反应，我就考虑是不是牵你的手，你有没反应，那好嘛，我就直接过去楼你的腰，要是你还没反应，我就考虑是不是把你推倒，要是可以推到，那就达到目的了。
但是，如果你是比较明确的，那在这个混蛋碰你手的时候，你就抽他一嘴巴，再骂一句：你敢动老娘，我搞死你。那后面什么都不会发生，再进一步，你要是冰雪聪明，你就知道这个混蛋对你的企图，在他接触你手的时候，你就找到别人比如壮汉或者你哥哥，先把他揍一顿，这个就更好了。
西方人最擅长的就是制造假议题，就是设置一个topic，其实没任何意义和价值，但是就等着trap你，你要是不注意说话了或者行动了因为这个topic，那么他就可以判断你的意图或者通过你的语言来敲诈你，尤其是你是个小国家的时候，比如卡大佐那张嘴管得不好，就被抽烂了；中国比较强一点，所以只好扔出来一个假议题，想知道中国下一步的战略考量而已。
这些东西是盎格鲁撒克逊人玩的很纯熟的游戏，印度人也学习到不少因为在英国300年的殖民历程中。
我就想起军坛上流传的在尖端军用技术上的商业合作, 限制类精密加工设备的流动, 这里面出现的大头企业, 又比如联系一些热钱的流动和放出, 这其中出现的具体的财团名称, 与某些设备提供者的直接关联, 总有一种有趣的感觉.
西方总是说TB间谍盗窃他们的技术, 但很多时候, 也许那些都只是非公开的国家企业间的商业行为而已, TB或许额外的为这种交易支付了更多的费用, 而这些费用或有一部分存在于"败家子"的"败家行为"之中.
借口越多 越说明实际上没有勇气！
也许， 不过到时需要借新的还旧的。 美国近30年除了克林顿时期短短的几年没有赤字， 不同样入不敷出， 赤字规模甚至高达财政预算的三分之一，当年GDP的十分之一。 天下滔滔， 借钱给美联储的不是瞎了眼了？借钱给欧洲不过同样的道理。
真的要借钱给PIGS5国， 肯定不是直接给他们。 德法建议建立一个SPV, 通过一定的安排， 来保证中国资金的安全， 当然， 世界上没有绝对的安全。 至于是不是借， 用什么条件借， 这是可以探讨的， 一口拒绝则是莽撞的。
SPEND YOUR USD RESERVES TO BUY ANYTHING WHICH CAN IMPROVE AVERAGE CHINESE'S LIFE. Paper money has no economic benefits for average Joes.
I am NOT a fan to buy US gov. bonds at all. EVER SINCE 2005, ANY FURTHER INVESTMENT IN US GOV. BONDS ARE ALREADY QUITE STUPID. You should blame your fellow Chinese back in Beijing, not me for doing that stupid investment.
Right now, China gets its reserve stuck in USD or Euro assets. To be frank, it is a choice between two evils and none of them are ideal: Euro currency could die at any moment given the funny irreponsible behavior of those PIIGs nations; USD assets are not much better, but at least, the US treasury officials under Hank and Tim and Fed chairman know how to behave responsibly during the 2008 crisis.
Americans still have at least consistent strategy, smart central bankers and functioning banking system. The banking system were recapitalized and has passed the most dangerous stage.
YOU TELL ME WHAT EUROPE HAS IN THE END? A CENTRAL BANKER CALLED TRICHET WHO KEPT ON HIKING KEY RATE EVEN DURING A PAN-EUROPEAN BANKING CRISIS??? Now, finally, that Italian new central banker has to correct his weird policy by just cutting rate by 25bp. Trichet also hiked interest rate in 2008, and then reversed his own decision in humiliation.
It is already consensus among many bankers that the ECB bureaucrats are a bunch of jokes: too many politicians there who do not understand how market works.
Then you have a malfunctioning European Union--even now, all decisions still depend on coordination between Germany-France. Given the serious nature of this banking crisis, ANY MEANINGFUL ACTION SHOULD BE MADE AT THE EUROLAND LEVEL AND NATIONAL INTERESTS must be depressed with a Euroland perspective.
But you look at the whole crisis ever since 2010--no role of any European institution, such as Commission, EU president, European Parliament. Everything is still done through complicated inefficient diplomacy among all those pighead national leaders, who have all kinds of whims every five minutes.
The whole US crisis was killed by three key decision-makers: Hank Paulson, Ben, Tim Geithner. Perfect dream team. Congress created some noise, but quickly cooperated.
THEN YOU LOOK AT THE WHOLE FARCE OF EURO RESCUE, you tell me who are really making thoughtful responsible decisions there??
Anyway, I put my wealth where my mouth is: gold, real estate and US/Canada gov. bonds. If you prefer to waste China's reserves into those Greeks/Italian/Portuguese/Spanish bonds, then PLEASE GO AHEAD.
Anyway, Greek bonds already enjoyed 50% haircut. Good luck!
SPEND YOUR USD RESERVES TO BUY ANYTHING WHICH CAN IMPROVE AVERAGE CHINESE'S LIFE. Paper money has no economic benefits for average Joes.
I am NOT a fan to buy US gov. bonds at all. EVER SINCE 2005, ANY FURTHER INVESTMENT IN US GOV. BONDS ARE ALREADY QUITE STUPID. You should blame your fellow Chinese back in Beijing, not me for doing that stupid investment.
Right now, China gets its reserve stuck in USD or Euro assets. To be frank, it is a choice between two evils and none of them are ideal: Euro currency could die at any moment given the funny irreponsible behavior of those PIIGs nations; USD assets are not much better, but at least, the US treasury officials under Hank and Tim and Fed chairman know how to behave responsibly during the 2008 crisis.
Americans still have at least consistent strategy, smart central bankers and functioning banking system. The banking system were recapitalized and has passed the most dangerous stage.
YOU TELL ME WHAT EUROPE HAS IN THE END? A CENTRAL BANKER CALLED TRICHET WHO KEPT ON HIKING KEY RATE EVEN DURING A PAN-EUROPEAN BANKING CRISIS??? Now, finally, that Italian new central banker has to correct his weird policy by just cutting rate by 25bp. Trichet also hiked interest rate in 2008, and then reversed his own decision in humiliation.
It is already consensus among many bankers that the ECB bureaucrats are a bunch of jokes: too many politicians there who do not understand how market works.
Then you have a malfunctioning European Union--even now, all decisions still depend on coordination between Germany-France. Given the serious nature of this banking crisis, ANY MEANINGFUL ACTION SHOULD BE MADE AT THE EUROLAND LEVEL AND NATIONAL INTERESTS must be depressed with a Euroland perspective.
But you look at the whole crisis ever since 2010--no role of any European institution, such as Commission, EU president, European Parliament. Everything is still done through complicated inefficient diplomacy among all those pighead national leaders, who have all kinds of whims every five minutes.
The whole US crisis was killed by three key decision-makers: Hank Paulson, Ben, Tim Geithner. Perfect dream team. Congress created some noise, but quickly cooperated.
THEN YOU LOOK AT THE WHOLE FARCE OF EURO RESCUE, you tell me who are really making thoughtful responsible decisions there??
Anyway, I put my wealth where my mouth is: gold, real estate and US/Canada gov. bonds. If you prefer to waste China's reserves into those Greeks/Italian/Portuguese/Spanish bonds, then PLEASE GO AHEAD.
Anyway, Greek bonds already enjoyed 50% haircut. Good luck!
用什么条件借， 这是可以探讨的，--those near bankrupt arrogants European gentlemen have already told you: no market economy status, no political compromise, no lift of arm trade embargo. My question: what the hell do they think they still have leverage on the negotiation table??
It is the most difficult task in the world to deal with irrational hypocrites and Europeans are clearly are. It is much easier to do business with Britons and Americans.
http://www.cchere.com/article/3600275
interesting comment fyi.
from market entry.
Now some Europeans are leveraging the market size of the WHOLE common market against China. If it is divided, then a single German/French market has no leverage against China at all.
不等于每一分钟都要腆着脸想人所想，急人所急。说到底是欧洲拉稀，你急着脱裤子干嘛？--hahaha.
hold them accountable in any way.
Their only choice now is emmigration.
It is very difficult for US politicians to be traitors to their own national interests. If they did that before, they would not even win any election--because election itself is a horse-trading, no TANGIBLE benefit you brought to your constituents, no votes in return.
American politicians, at city/state level, always focus on "how much benefits I brought to this this district when I was... representative...". Nobody boasted about a giant building/bridge/Olympics Games as Chinese leaders love to boast.
The former brings voters tangible real benefits; the latter bring fiscal burden to their slave-citizens.
要玩得眼花缭乱的。而中国的外交部，根本就是“馒头办”，只会蒸实心馒头。
主管外交的，倒不是要骗人，而是心眼要活，今天这样，明天说不定又那样了。那么，今天骗到你同意帮他的主，明天还得来上供，巩固巩固；今天没骗到你的，明天还有翻盘的希望，也是来上供。但是这一套，是对付“发达国家”和韩国新加坡那类伪发达国家的，不能对付自己人。
外交的主管领导，一定要红二代，敢闯祸的。钱老的那套，已经不大适宜于“帝国”这个新阶段了。自周总理以来，某国的外交战线，太谨小慎微，太委琐，太老实了，扬眉吐气的案子，比大熊猫还稀有。
欧洲只要继续同美国对抗，不肯投降，中国就一定要去救，让欧洲有“可以同中国抱团取暖”的希望。如果中国断然不救，甚至背后一刀，那欧洲就会像二战末期的德国，在东线拼命抵抗，在西线拼命放水，宁可落在美国手里。
欧美之间，目前完全就是一场战争。只要战争能多持续一秒钟，中国付点代价是值得的。欧洲投降太快，资源完整地落入美国之手，对非美势力最不利。
这场战争，类似于赤壁之战的初期，鲁肃对孙权说：“我们都可以降曹，就是主公你不能。”。因为一旦欧洲人变成亡国奴，被改造得勤快点也习惯了，那么两代之内，一定完全没有悲催之情，只觉得美国爸爸对我太好了，我们怎么早没有被殖民三百年。现在奋力抵抗的，就是各国的统治阶级和精英知识分子（孙权们）。老百姓只要生活安逸，不管那么多的，美国佬来，至少比黄种人来要好。
延长欧洲的痛苦，消耗美国，就是最大的胜利了。
欧洲的肉，肯定大部分是老美的，这是为何我认为这次危机美国肯定是最安全，最好过的一个。中国能做到的就是让他少吃点，迟点吃，自己多分一块而已。
所以救是要救，但是要拿捏，多勒索点好处，只要别逼得破罐子破摔。