主题：03/11/2009 Market View -- 宁子

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX: 43.61; -0.76

VXN: 42.81; -1.02

VXO: 45.55; +0.55

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.75; +0.02

To recap what we said last Thursday with respect to VIX' failure to spike higher on this most recent selling: VIX does not have to spike higher to signal a bottom. It has done its work already and historically it spikes several months before the actual bottom. In 2002 it spiked to 56, the high, over three months before the October bottom. It has been just over four months since the first spike higher in October and just over three months from the November high that was a closing high in the run.

NASDAQ

Stats: +13.36 points (+0.98%) to close at 1371.64

Volume: 2.227B (-9.31%)

Up Volume: 1.559B (-732.361M)

Down Volume: 636.533M (+511.288M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.02 to 1

Previous Session: Advancers led 4.77 to 1

New Highs: 4 (-3)

New Lows: 107 (-79)

NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

Another move higher but not much of one, up to the 18 day EMA (1382) on the high and then a modest fade. This also took it up to the December low, a double resistance point. Already a key test for the techs after two days. Tech was the leader Wednesday, aided by some large cap moves. If NASDAQ is serious it can hold on here another day but then needs to show more upside force off of this November low. If it comes back and stalls in this area, bad sign. Thus far a good start and for the upside you want to see it hold the gains and then show another strong upside move early next week.

NASDAQ 100 (1.21%) gapped up and ran through the 18 day EMA (1126) but also faded to close, this time right on it. This puts them at the January low as well, similar to NASDAQ. Need the large caps to lead the way here. They can pause as well but not retrace much before another big move.

SOX (2.00%) gapped higher and managed a close above the 50 day EMA. Right below some resistance at 213, and there is still the important 225 after that. Lots of resistance but also the best pattern, having held the February and early March low. Can help lead the way higher as it did in late 2002.

NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg

SP500/NYSE

Stats: -1.76 points (-0.24%) to close at 721.36

NYSE Volume: 1.745B (-18.58%)

Up Volume: 1.046B (-1.061B)

Down Volume: 677.225M (+599.178M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.51 to 1

Previous Session: Advancers led 8.69 to 1

New Highs: 5 (-3)

New Lows: 125 (-33)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

Rallied up near the 18 day EMA (738, 732 on the high) and then gave it all back. A doji below the 18 day EMA leaves you less than warm and fuzzy after all rallies thus far have failed and failed quickly. The downside has been so severe, however, you sense it could hold and continue on up to that first real test at 741 and more realistically, 752 the November closing low. Similar to NASDAQ, it needs to hold the gains then make the next break higher. If not we will have some downside plays to throw at it.

SP600 (-0.05%) again lagged the market as the economically sensitive small caps show no inclination to rally. SP600 has not even closed over the 10 day EMA. Tried the move Wednesday and made it, but then gave it up, showing something of a shooting star doji after a short bounce. Note this is its first real bounce to test its 10 day EMA since mid-February when the leg started in earnest. They could rally if the rest of the market pulls back up, but if not it could be a very ugly next leg. Will have a downside play here as well.

DJ30

Similar NYSE chart pattern with a doji below the 18 day EMA, tapping toward it (not at it) on the high. Likely just a pause after a big move, nothing more. After such a clubbing you would think so. Hey, at least it should get up to 7500 and the November lows (7449 intraday, 7552 closing).

Stats: +3.91 points (+0.06%) to close at 6930.4

Volume: 524M shares Wednesday versus 640M shares Tuesday. Good volume for a pause in that it was lower, but still very high volume suggesting some churn. Have to be careful both directions here.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg