主题：03/11/2009 Market View -- 宁子

News, outside of really bad or really good, is not likely to drive the market just now. It is on a technical move, an oversold bounce that was brewing after such a gutting the past month as the indices put in two downside legs after the consolidation failed in early February. The market should bounce more from here. If it does not, it is massively weak and 5000 suddenly seems not only reachable, but a level we might be happy to be at.

The major indices closes was suspect with the dojis below the 18 day EMA, but we still have to give more nod to the upside given the harsh selling, the strong rebound, the tech and chip leadership. Doesn't mean it will happen. They may be flat wrong as they were in January before the February breakdown when they looked quite good and then not so good after that drop to the bottom of the range to start the year.

We have some great upside plays moving well. Others are recovering, and if they continue to recover we will let them. If they struggle, cut the cord. We will continue to look at some upside plays; after a pause for another day or two where the market holds its gains and it will be ready for another move higher. That break could give us some good buys and might even be foreshadowed by some leaders moving out ahead of the pack.

Just in case we are putting some downside on the play list as well. There are still bearish set ups despite all of the selling and the relatively short bounce to this point. We don't want to rush in on the first tick lower; things are still oversold on a relative basis. If the market continues to move laterally or just slightly lower in a pause after the run, we don't want to barrel in on the downside. Let it make its test and if it rolls over hard on stronger volume the downside game is likely back on. Possible transition time and still a very oversold condition, so again, we need to be careful about jumping in too quickly to the downside. Some test buys of partial positions yes, but not loading the boat just yet.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1371.64

Resistance:

The 18 day EMA at 1382

1387 is the 2001 low

1398 is the early December 2008 low

1428 is the mid-November 2008 low

1434 is the January low (1440.86 closing)

1460 is the February low

The 50 day EMA at 1464

The 50 day SMA at 1484

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low.

The 90 day SMA at 1510

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1565 is the second low in October 2008

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

1603 is the December peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

1644 from August 2003

1666 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

1316 is the November 2008 closing low

1295 is the November 2008 low

1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday

1262 from July 2002

1192 is the July 2002 intraday low

1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low

S&P 500: Closed at 721.36

Resistance:

722 is a December 1996 low

The 18 day EMA at 738

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

752 is the November 2008 closing low

768 is the 2002 bear market low

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

The 50 day EMA at 800

804 is the low on the January 2009 selloff

812 is the February low

815 is the early December 2008 low

818 is the early November 2008 low

839 is the early October 2008 low

The 90 day SMA at 847

848 is the October 2008 closing low

853 is the July 2002 low

857 is the December consolidation low

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing

665 from August 1996

656-654 from January, April 1996

607-05 from November 1995

Dow: Closed at 6930.40

Resistance:

7008 from February 1997 closing peak

The 18 day EMA at 7097

7115 is the February 2009 closing low

7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market

7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.

7449 is the November 2008 low

7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low

7694 is the February intraday low

7702 is the July 2002 low

The 50 day EMA at 7702

7867 is the early February low

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7909 is the early January low

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

The 90 day SMA at 8215

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

6528 is the November 1996 peak

6489 from December 1996 closing peak

6356 is the April 1997 intraday low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

March 10 - Tuesday

January Wholesale Inventories (10:00): -0.7% actual versus -1.0% expected, -1.4% prior

March 11- Wednesday

03/06 Crude Oil Inventories (10:30): +749K actual, -757K prior

Treasury Budget, February (14:00): -$192.8B actual -$200B expected, -$175.6B prior

March 12 - Thursday

Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 644K expected, 639 prior

Retail Sales, February (8:30): -0.5% expected, 1.0% prior

Retail Sales ex-auto, February (8:30): -0.1% expected, 0.9% prior

Business Inventories, January (10:00): -1.0% expected, -1.3% prior

March 13 - Friday

February Export Prices ex-ag. (8:30): -0.0% prior

Import Prices ex-oil, February (8:30): -0.8% prior

Trade Balance, January (8:30): -$38.2B expected, -$39.9B prior

Michigan Sentiment-Preliminary, March (10:00): 56.3 expected, 56.3 prior