主题：03/11/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Upside:

Play Date: 03/11/2009

ICE (Intercontinental Exchange--$62.69; +2.17; optionable): Energy exchange

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html

After Hours: $62.59

EARNINGS: 05/05/2009

STATUS: Double bottom. After tanking to start the year ICE made a pair of bottoms, one in January and another in late February. Indeed, it made a smaller double bottom in late February and rallied up to this week, working laterally the pat three days just over the 50 day EMA (61.63) it broke on the close today. Looking for a strong breach higher with some rising volume to give us an entry point.

Volume: 2.129M Avg Volume: 2.368M

BUY POINT: $63.31 Volume=3M Target=$72.85 Stop=$58.91

POSITION: ICE DL - Apr. $60c (68 delta) or ICE FM - June $65c (58 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ice.html

Play Date: 03/11/2009

MBT (Mobile Telesys--$25.77; -2.17; optionable): Russian wireless

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbt.html

After Hours: $26.48

EARNINGS: 03/11/2009

STATUS: Cup. A bit ragged, but a definite cup base from early January to the present with a strong break higher Tuesday over the 50 day EMA (25.32) that held MBT back in mid-February. Sold back Wednesday on lower trade, closing over the 50 day EMA. Looking for a renewed bounce off of there to give us our buy point as it resumes the break higher after testing the Tuesday break over resistance.

Volume: 2.776M Avg Volume: 2.312M

BUY POINT: $26.11 Volume=3M Target=$31.95 Stop=$24.55

POSITION: MBT FE - June $25c (64 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mbt.html

Play Date: 03/11/2009

MCHP (Microchip--$19.67; +0.75; optionable): Semiconductors

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mchp.html

After Hours: $19.72

EARNINGS: 01/29/2009

STATUS: Ascending base. Set up a double bottom with handle that we wanted to play earlier, but never gave the breakout. Instead MCHP faded through the last three weeks of February on into this week. It didn't break down, just faded. It hold the late December consolidation range and then gapped higher Wednesday on huge trade, clearing the 50 day EMA (19.01). Showing a doji after the gap, but really like the break. Now we have a feeling that MCHP will test back some tomorrow after this gap. We are looking for a test of the 90 day SMA (19.19) where it tapped and bounced Wednesday. On another test in that general range and we pick it up on the rebound move.

Volume: 8.84M Avg Volume: 4.626M

BUY POINT: Test 19ish and then $19.22 on the bounce. If it doesn't go that far, that is okay. Volume=5M Target=$23.44 Stop=$18.94

POSITION: QMT DW - Apr. $17.50c (79 delta) or QMT GD - July $20c (56 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mchp.html

Downside:

Play Date: 03/11/2009

AMGN (Amgen--$47.27; -1.07; optionable): Biotechnology

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amgn.html

After Hours: $47.27

EARNINGS: 01/26/2009

STATUS: Downside. Fell like a rock from the sky to end February as AMGN hit freefall. It checked up at 46, just below the October lows (the lows for AMGN on this selling). Rebounded Tuesday, tried to continue higher Wednesday, but after clearing the nearest resistance at the 10 day EMA (48.82), it gave it right back up and rolled to a loss on stronger volume. Not enjoying the gains and looking to play AMGN down for another run given it blew out its prior low on this last move. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.

Volume: 11.208M Avg Volume: 8.525M

BUY POINT: $47.05 Volume=9.5M Target=$44.55 Stop=$47.91

POSITION: AMQ PW - Apr $47.50p (-46 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amgn.html

Play Date: 03/11/2009

DTV (DirecTV Group--$20.06; +0.06; optionable): Satellite TV

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dtv.html

After Hours: $20.30

EARNINGS: 02/10/2009

STATUS: Test breakdown. Gapped lower mid-February after earnings. With the help of the market selloff DTV tumbled down to 19, holding over the October and November lows at 18. Bounced Tuesday and again Wednesday, but after moving through the 18 day EMA (20.50) intraday it rolled over to flat. Low volume on that move. Looking for it to turn back down off of this doji. Want to see some significant volume to give us the entry.

Volume: 11.226M Avg Volume: 10.518M

BUY POINT: $19.86 Volume=14M Target=$18.35 Stop=$20.55

POSITION: DTV PD - Apr. $20p (-44 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dtv.html

Play Date: 03/11/2009

IWM (Ishares Russell 2000--$36.68; +0.05; optionable)

After Hours: $36.69

STATUS: Resistance at 10 day EMA. Putting this one on in the event the bounce had a small gas tank and rolls over from here. IWM (small cap Russell 2000) hit the 10 day EMA (37) and failed to hold the break over that level. Showing a candlestick chart doji, an indication a move can be over. Yes it is a small bounce after a thrashing the past three weeks and it may be too early to enter. Maybe. The small caps are so weak they may not make any more headway.

Volume: 82.276M Avg Volume: 71.481M

BUY POINT: $36.32 Volume=90M Target=$34.05 Stop=$36.88

POSITION: IWM PK - Apr. $37p (-47 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/iwm.html