主题：【原创】土豆与牛肉 -- 晨枫

但是，你认为央格鲁-萨克森人曾经保有了三百年的世界霸权，现在仍然可能的观点站不住脚。

--I have no crystal ball, so I do not know future for certain. I just extrapolate from the nondisputed history. I saw challenges from China. But first, China is only strong along the economic dimension. Not powerful enough on all dimensions. Second, Europe-Russia-China can not trust each other and a solid alliance can not be formed.

Therefore, I will say Anglos are still likely to maintain the status quo. A US-China G2 is more likely at least for 10 years.

你的主要理由是央格鲁-萨克森国家对人才的吸引力大，

--Two other key reasons I do not want to put in writing: 尚武精神 and the elite's commitment to their own nations.

"Great empires are not maintained by timidity". Anglos reached their current global dominance through lots of military sacrifice. Americans still keep this kind of militarism in their culture (national hunting passion, regular rehearsal of historical battles, ownership of guns, BBQ life style). You do not see that in the French culture.

Commitment to their own nation. Aristcrat families usually suffer first during the British Imperial expansion. One example is the Churchill family. East coast American elite families still have the similar tradition--check the history of Roosevelt family. Roosevelt Sr. and Roosevelt Jr. all have solid military records before presidency. WASPs truly treat America as their destined homeland. They are very alert at continental Europeans and do not easily trust those Italian/Greek Americans.

You can feel it when you have more friends in that circle. It takes some time to see when you live on the US east coast.

以前确实是！但是这一现象的原因是这些国家的相对富裕能够给人才更多的发财机会，

--money plus tolerance. People move to America not just because of money.

或者即使这些国家最初不是那么富裕的时候也能凭借资源给人才提供发财的机会。现在的央格鲁-萨克森国家还有这些条件吗？有点前瞻意识的人才，都不再认同这里还有机会了。

--hehe. Not all anglo nations. But at least, in America, I still see lots of hope. Asia has growth opportunity, but no advantage in terms of living standards.

道理就是前面曾网友说的，这些国家高昂的人力成本一定会因为自由竞争的原因导致产业远离央格鲁-萨克森国家。

--Key: free trade. Your story holds if America still tolerates free trade--I do not believe free trade will survive much longer in the next 20 years. America can easily shut off its border and refuse to deal with the outside world. It did that before. This nation has a weird history of seclusion. Then on the global arena, you will have several equal-weight players who do not respect each other. A stable global order will not be possible.

还能有什么样的产业只能由这些国家的产业工人来完成呢？

--when there is no free trade, we never know the definite answer.

没有任何优势产业，一个国家的财富哪里积累呢？美元的地位能够永远没有真实的价值依托吗？

--that's a good question--let me tell you, America will bring up lots of regional conflicts and profit from international instability. They are old Liu Mang, offspring of the cunning Britons. Britons kicked ass of European powers not just by military tools. They are not afraid of doing that.

至于你的问题：

My question for all Chinese on this forum: did you see any institutional innovation from China ever since 1978? Did we create international accounting standards, World Bank, International Monetary Funds, United Nations (or International League), NATO, national insurance system, international commmercial code, GATT, WTO, first securities law, first security market regulatory, first international settlement bank, most innovative research universities, most dynamic high-tech firms, administrative system, best management practices...

我认为值得所有的挑战者思索，答案一定在新一轮产业发展的过程中产生。

--hehe. New industries... Will not happen first in China. No social infrastructure for that. VoIP phone service was pioneered by two chinese brothers in Fu Jian in late 1990s. They are still sitting in jail now after persecuted by the China Telecom for national security reason. You can google it yourself.

我目前无法明确回答，但可以预言的一点，这种最后的社会管理格局肯定不是央格鲁-萨克森目前主导的这种格局。

--yes. It will be an unstable compromise. Continental Europe will be muslimized. It has already lost global leadership. China will need another 30 years before a complete takeover.

If I were you, I WOULD WORRY MORE ABOUT THE FORTHCOMING HYPERINFLATION in China and my pension money than the global structure at least 10 years later.

Anyway, China is the nation of the political elites. Why should an average Chinese cares so much. Next time, when you have to pay the North American price for a small apartment in BJ or Shanghai, you will know who really rip you off in your real life. This time, it is not the Anglo people.

We enter a 10-year period of global instability and it is not a funny period in anyone's life.