主题：奥巴马政府：电池车非零排放，超内燃机 -- 过来看井大

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John M.A. Roy, Ph.D.

Nicholas Cavallo

Cleantech

INVESTMENT CONCLUSION:

An article in this morning's Wall Street Journal highlights the Obama Administration's new rules for automobiles due out later today. In a departure from previous drafts of the legislation, electric cars will no longer be considered "zero emission," as emissions from the generation of electricity used to propel the car will now be taken into account.

电池车不再是零排放车，因为要考虑为电池充电的电力产生中的排放！

Details of the rules were not released, but it is expected that the rules will call for a fleet-wide average fuel efficiency of 35.5 mpg by 2016. The full life-cycle emissions, including the incremental energy used to produce lithium-ion batteries for these cars, are not considered in these rules, but we do but we believe that this is a step in the right direction on the part of the Federal government to more accurately characterize the environmental profiles of electric vehicles.

据说如何做成电池的排放没有考虑，但是对整个排放的profile有一个规定。我猜，类似于多晶硅太阳能制造过程中排放的碳比它省的碳多的多。

Today's decision is seen as a set-back for auto makers, who had hoped to score electric vehicle sales as zero emission to make up for sales larger vehicles with higher emissions. We continue to believe that under-performance of electric vehicles will lead to lower than expected demand, and that this will hurt smaller battery makers such as SELL-rated Ener1 (HEV) and NEUTRAL-rated A123 Systems (AONE).

报告认为，这对试图通过电动车搞一票的汽车制造商是利空。一些小电池商麻烦了。

KEY POINTS:

Obama administration changes automobile rules due out today to recognize emissions from electricity generated for electric vehicles. This is a reversal from a September 2009 draft of the rules that counted electric vehicles as zero emission vehicles. Environmental groups and the oil industry, an unlikely couple, lobbied for the change.

有趣的是，这次村支书奥巴马变卦，竟然是在传统的石油商和环保分子的合作游说下。

We believe that this decision by the Obama administration signals a more reasonable approach to energy policy that will potentially include an honest assessment of the benefits of natural gas vehicles versus other alternative fuels.

Still not taking into account full life-cycle emissions. Despite the progress made with today's rule changes, the new rules still do not take into account the significant life-cycle emissions of electric vehicles resulting from the the 13-23% more energy required to produce lithium-ion batteries than an internal combustion engine.

说制造铁理电池过程中，要比内燃机多产生13-23%的排放。希望行家指点一下。

The U.S. National Academy of Science projects that even in 2030, ICE driven cars will be 9%cleaner than full battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and 17%cleaner than plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) on a full life-cycle basis.

Set-back for the auto industry; how will it react? We believe that today's announcement is a setback for the auto industry, as the fuel standards effectively became more stringent, and that this could lead to less enthusiasm for electric vehicles from major OEMs. Of course, the OEMs could take the opposite approach and try to sell even more electric vehicles to offset the emissions of other vehicles; however, we doubt that the demand will be there for even higher levels of electric vehicles and instead believe that auto OEMs will take a more sensible approach to reducing emissions across their vehicle portfolios. This, of course, could likely be accomplished by a commitment to producing CNG-fueled models, but natural gas fueling infrastructure remains an issue for the average driver.

Emissions are only one of the problems facing electric vehicles. Other issues such as cost, range, and performance in cold temperatures contribute to our negative outlook for electric vehicles. See our report published March 31, 2010 entitled "What's All the Hype About: Electric Vehicles Underperform on Almost All Fronts" for more details on our outlook for electric vehicles. We expect that lagging electric vehicle demand in the future will hurt smaller battery makers and reiterate our SELL rating for Ener1, Inc (HEV) and NEUTRAL rating for A123 Systems (AONE) with $3.50 and $14 fair values, respectively.

很长，自己读吧。或者用Google Translator翻译一下。

希望行家出手，解答一下这个变化。

谢谢

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