主题：阿拉伯动乱和人口问题 -- 冷眼

North Africa/Arabic desert--those are geographic bridge between the west and east.

Historically, it prospered by serving as the trading posts for those two MANUFACTURING BASES: east and west. But after 16th century, trade could be now done through Pacific Ocean route (asia-US) or Suez Canal (Asia-Europe).

That explains the immediate decline of middle-east in global economy between 16th and 20th centuries.

The barren land (Egypt-due to the Delta, and Coastal Tunisia-formerally Carthage, are the only exceptions) pre-determines that THIS LAND CAN ONLY SUPPORT A LIMITED AMOUNT OF POPULATION. THERE IS LIMITED AGRICULTURE AND ZERO MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY.

Why inter-tribe vendetta is so prevalent in the whole Bedouin region (north Africa, part of middle-east)?

Because land could not support population growth, killing and robbery is a natural way to balance population with the natural resources.

Historically, Bedouins are well-known as mercenaries--land is too barren and it is the best profession to practise.

Now the discovery of oil since 1937 (first by Cal.Standard in Saudi, then by Occidental in Libya) result in a big boom in both living standards and population, as well as decline in tribal fight--BUT LIBYA HAS NO manufacturing base to absorb this huge amount of young workers--those WORKERS ARE NOT TRAINED too for an industrialized world.

Thus mass youth unemployment is inevitable in those Bedouin nations.

Their best profession: mercenary or warrior. That explains why they so much enjoy a civil war.

To be frank: middle-east will be the source of the next world war. They will start to chop off each other's head as soon as oil revenue declines.

It has been proved again and again in their history. Just watch.