主题：【原创】中国出口大幅负增长，休克疗法恶果越来越彰显 -- 思想的行者

obviously, this is all "wild modeling".

basic assumptions:

1) competitions of 運動模式

people often get upset and & emotional about what I wrote about TGchina. and I keep saying that this is basically about global heatbath vs TGchina as a subsystem far away from 平衡態 of "global heatbath".

is "global heatbath" dominated by US/white wolves "good" or "bad"? we don't know now, and in future, humanity may well comeback to Marxist/Mao's social economic development model(although very unlikely), but for now, it is all about competitions of 運動模式.

2) 热力学第0定律

not very much taught in china at all.

basically, for china to sustain its current model far away from US white dominated and managed "global heatbath", china needs constant energy supply to feed its system, at a much higher lever and growth rate, to balance out the leakage of energy from the system, such as financial capital & human capital, among other things.

where & how does china get that kind of energy supply? or outing it in a simple way, how do you keep a GDP growth rate of >6%, and at what cost?

1.

chairman X's recent speech (fairly well known) in central party school: more than half of the 1 hour speech is about 演色革命, he & his team is obviously worried about Uncle sam & his white wolf team (including a few yellow folks).

google/fb is working hard to penetrate TG's GFW:

Broadcasting Free Internet from Outer Space!

决战千里之外, how to hedge that?

Onislam.net-2014年4月17日

Broadcasting Free Internet from Outer Space! ... Google's Project Loon is essentially no different from Outernet. ... “free internet” dream with a fleet of drones to provide internet access worldwide with the acquisition of Ascenta, ...

2.

if you work inside a pressure cooker, you have to watch out the risk of 李政道杨振宁"热力学极限配分函数出现奇点，系统产生相变"

so,

1)release pressure, by killing a bounce of Jiang folks, 1 at a time, how many for many years?

2) reforming military, controlling budget & expenditure etc

3) near term, get done with this short farmers trade(城镇化) to keep GDP growth rate and make some money

4) china capital market to be opening up, sooner than later, and yes, there will be possibly bloody consequences & cost, etc.

but, to play safe, politically & economically, TG has to 统一战线 uncle sams' wall street wolf, among other goals. yes, these US wall street wolf are not cheap, with help of GOOG/FB wolfs's 决战千里之外 vs TG's GFW, omg(:).

3.

10 years later, 自由选举, chairman X will be the 1st

民選 president of china,新加坡 model, some how & to some degree normalized with global "heat bath", uncle sam's dream of 放在火炉(global heat bath) 上考 TGchina falls apart, risk to be significantly reduced for TGchina.

likely, chairman X will succeed, 打個平手与 uncle sam, 与狼共舞, with Chinese's huge & still growing 载体经济, and Chinese people's almost unconditional support of their political elite (other than during the sever economic & political turmoil periods) , as evidenced mostly for the past 5k years.