主题：已经5月份了，可以对上海这波疫情做一个小小的复盘了 -- 舟轻云淡

英国的：

Generation Time of the Omicron Variant based on case counts in England in 2021 ；Alex Selby ：

The above relationship between characteristics of Delta and of Omicron is inferred from variant case counts only. If we go further and make use of previous estimates of characteristics of Delta, then we can estimate those of Omicron. In this article we consider the generation time distribution of Delta from Hart et al, Oct 2021. Combined with the above linear relationship, these suggest that the generation time of Omicron is 46% (38% - 60%) that of Delta, or 2.12 (1.75 - 2.77) days, and that the relative transmissibility in England in December 2021, Rt(O)/Rt(Δ), was 2.28 (2.03 - 2.68), lower than some early estimates that did not consider a different generation time.

韩国的：

serial interval and basic reproduction number of sars-cov-2 omicron variant in south korea

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.25.21268301v1

Abstract

South Korea is experiencing the community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (B.1.1.529). We estimated that the mean (± standard deviation) serial interval was 2.22 (± 1.62) days, and the basic reproduction number was 1.90 (95% Credible Interval, 1.50–2.43) for the Omicron variant outbreak in South Korea.

2月17日广州发布会：

在17日下午召开的广州市疫情防控新闻发布会上，广州市疾控中心副主任张周斌在会上介绍，16日的新增病例包含两个重要的流调溯源信息：一是此病例与病例1、病例2接触到检出核酸阳性的时间不到2天时间……云云

另外1月广州案例也一样是40小时上下。

我举了4个，都不是1天左右，是2天左右，前2个是论文，后2个是国内散发实例。

O以及后面的蛊王，传播优势更大程度是免疫突破：

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron VOC Transmission in Danish Households

https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.27.21268278

Our findings confirm that the rapid spread of the Omicron VOC primarily can be ascribed to the immune evasiveness rather than an inherent increase in the basic transmissibility.

当然，代际间隔确实比原始要短不少，但绝不是感染就喷毒没得救。

另外口罩，R0就不可能就是12。日本一直焖烧而不是旺燃也说明这一点确实是对的。

另外足不出户为什么做不下去？为什么全中国其它城市基本做到了？为什么3月底上海也做到了？

上海的检测能力：2021年12月8日

原标题:最近排查多,上海核酸检测能力储备够吗? 上海目前有156家核酸检测机构,单份单管检测能力是91万份/天

即便不扩充，静止混检1天也可以做接近1000万人。

再看深圳，至少8月的时候检测能力只有55万管。

深圳唯一的优势可能是因为HK的问题也许急速扩张了检测能力。

另外，如果1天代际，你拖了多少代际？翻了多少倍？指数增长早1周什么概念？