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主题:【原创】熊猫闲拍郎咸平 -- evilpanda

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                    • 继续
                      家园 最后一组数据

                      这是全国进口的manufactured goods 价值分类百份比。

                      从左起,化工产品,制成品, 重型机械,和其余

                      Jan, 2000 17.43% 24.23% 49.04% 7.70%

                      Feb, 2000 17.64% 22.86% 51.42% 6.91%

                      Mar, 2000 18.07% 23.38% 50.73% 6.90%

                      Apr, 2000 17.82% 24.30% 50.19% 6.98%

                      May, 2000 17.02% 24.90% 50.48% 6.90%

                      Jun, 2000 15.60% 23.93% 51.72% 6.77%

                      Jul, 2000 16.40% 24.32% 51.41% 7.16%

                      Aug, 2000 16.90% 23.62% 51.83% 7.10%

                      Sep, 2000 17.09% 22.48% 52.19% 7.56%

                      Oct, 2000 17.40% 16.38% 51.91% 7.06%

                      Nov, 2000 16.29% 22.27% 53.15% 7.54%

                      Dec, 2000 16.34% 22.35% 53.20% 7.18%

                      Jan, 2001 16.12% 20.54% 55.49% 7.05%

                      Feb, 2001 15.95% 21.50% 54.36% 7.70%

                      Mar, 2001 16.88% 22.42% 52.51% 7.04%

                      Apr, 2001 16.67% 21.74% 53.31% 7.47%

                      May, 2001 16.66% 23.05% 52.41% 7.36%

                      Jun, 2001 15.85% 22.10% 53.89% 7.79%

                      Jul, 2001 16.37% 21.37% 53.79% 8.00%

                      Aug, 2001 16.04% 20.30% 55.16% 7.93%

                      Sep, 2001 16.89% 20.09% 54.44% 7.58%

                      Oct, 2001 16.47% 20.26% 54.19% 7.85%

                      Nov, 2001 15.62% 21.36% 53.65% 8.10%

                      Dec, 2001 15.51% 19.92% 55.73% 7.90%

                      Jan, 2002 16.42% 20.52% 54.60% 7.55%

                      Feb, 2002 16.84% 19.44% 55.60% 7.75%

                      Mar, 2002 17.02% 20.93% 53.40% 7.65%

                      Apr, 2002 17.44% 20.09% 53.93% 8.00%

                      May, 2002 16.95% 21.43% 53.10% 7.90%

                      Jun, 2002 15.32% 21.72% 54.11% 8.01%

                      Jul, 2002 14.84% 21.29% 54.98% 7.97%

                      Aug, 2002 15.85% 20.65% 54.85% 8.09%

                      Sep, 2002 15.58% 18.33% 57.29% 8.29%

                      Oct, 2002 15.19% 18.12% 57.79% 8.34%

                      Nov, 2002 14.83% 16.91% 59.69% 8.05%

                      Dec, 2002 15.14% 18.30% 57.62% 8.57%

                      Jan, 2003 16.30% 18.80% 56.53% 8.12%

                      Feb, 2003 16.39% 19.51% 55.19% 8.41%

                      Mar, 2003 15.54% 19.19% 55.92% 8.72%

                      Apr, 2003 14.62% 19.47% 56.17% 9.18%

                      May, 2003 14.32% 20.64% 55.07% 9.69%

                      Jun, 2003 13.58% 20.54% 56.03% 9.58%

                      Jul, 2003 13.64% 19.39% 57.00% 9.67%

                      Aug, 2003 14.40% 18.20% 57.30% 9.71%

                      Sep, 2003 13.80% 17.22% 58.63% 9.99%

                      Oct, 2003 13.79% 17.74% 57.55% 10.56%

                      Nov, 2003 14.03% 17.97% 56.84% 10.82%

                      Dec, 2003 13.67% 17.85% 57.25% 10.89%

                      Jan, 2004 15.40% 17.93% 55.70% 10.74%

                      Feb, 2004 15.59% 18.34% 55.03% 10.73%

                      Mar, 2004 14.59% 18.37% 55.43% 11.08%

                      Apr, 2004 13.80% 18.61% 55.81% 11.44%

                      May, 2004 13.87% 16.91% 56.99% 11.88%

                      Jun, 2004 14.23% 17.35% 56.43% 11.71%

                      Jul, 2004 14.31% 16.40% 57.11% 11.80%

                      Aug, 2004 15.02% 15.28% 58.03% 11.34%

                      Sep, 2004 15.04% 14.92% 58.44% 11.26%

                      Oct, 2004 15.28% 14.67% 58.31% 11.40%

                      Nov, 2004 15.62% 15.55% 57.45% 11.08%

                      Dec, 2004 15.12% 16.38% 57.23% 10.93%

                      Jan, 2005 16.38% 16.67% 55.43% 11.11%

                      Feb, 2005 16.21% 15.93% 56.43% 10.98%

                      Mar, 2005 16.99% 17.07% 54.27% 11.06%

                      Apr, 2005 16.41% 17.06% 55.16% 10.71%

                      May, 2005 15.55% 17.90% 55.02% 11.16%

                      Jun, 2005 15.38% 17.64% 55.46% 11.12%

                      Jul, 2005 15.63% 16.25% 55.90% 11.89%

                      Aug, 2005 14.85% 15.03% 57.41% 12.39%

                      Sep, 2005 15.22% 14.91% 57.21% 12.36%

                      Oct, 2005 13.82% 14.28% 58.49% 13.11%

                      Nov, 2005 13.40% 14.52% 58.79% 12.94%

                      Dec, 2005 13.27% 13.88% 59.75% 12.84%

                      Jan, 2006 14.94% 13.43% 58.59% 12.75%

                      Feb, 2006 14.50% 13.77% 59.01% 12.39%

                      Mar, 2006 14.08% 14.02% 59.39% 12.17%

                      Apr, 2006 14.48% 14.35% 59.16% 11.72%

                      May, 2006 14.27% 14.96% 58.42% 12.04%

                      Jun, 2006 14.62% 15.64% 58.35% 11.06%

                      Jul, 2006 14.13% 14.74% 59.39% 11.41%

                      Aug, 2006 14.99% 14.91% 58.27% 11.51%

                      Sep, 2006 14.51% 13.67% 59.83% 11.48%

                      Oct, 2006 13.40% 13.95% 60.40% 11.91%

                      Nov, 2006 14.08% 14.02% 59.69% 11.89%

                      Dec, 2006 14.79% 14.89% 58.47% 11.57%

                      Jan, 2007 15.57% 14.67% 57.95% 11.44%

                      Feb, 2007 15.49% 14.81% 58.14% 11.36%

                      Mar, 2007 15.79% 15.74% 57.12% 10.99%

                      Apr, 2007 15.73% 16.22% 56.65% 11.12%

                      May, 2007 15.74% 15.91% 56.05% 11.96%

                      Jun, 2007 15.33% 15.46% 56.90% 12.00%

                      Jul, 2007 14.89% 14.44% 57.99% 12.41%

                      Aug, 2007 15.03% 13.58% 58.41% 12.66%

                      Sep, 2007 14.51% 12.81% 59.73% 12.58%

                      Oct, 2007 14.13% 13.30% 58.58% 13.67%

                      Nov, 2007 14.66% 13.52% 58.64% 12.68%

                      Dec, 2007 14.37% 13.33% 58.50% 13.37%

                      Jan, 2008 16.01% 14.28% 55.87% 13.48%

                      Feb, 2008 15.39% 14.54% 56.17% 13.37%

                      Mar, 2008 15.66% 14.42% 56.33% 13.13%

                      Apr, 2008 15.93% 14.52% 55.66% 13.08%

                      May, 2008 15.70% 14.53% 55.80% 13.31%

                      Jun, 2008 16.61% 13.45% 57.00% 12.59%

                      Jul, 2008 17.15% 13.92% 56.18% 12.38%

                      Aug, 2008 15.21% 13.07% 58.93% 12.36%

                      Sep, 2008 15.27% 13.22% 58.90% 12.06%

                      • 家园 数据分析

                        从表中数据可以看到中国的净出口加速是因为进口的减速。入口的减速来自於制造业货品的减少,制造业货品入口里面减少得最快的,是工业制成品。

                        啥时候开始的,2004年左右。

                        为什么会减少,因为国货替代了。

                        为啥国货会替代,因为有成本优势。

                        为啥有成本优势,生产规模扩大,单位成本下降。

                        (也就是郎所说的产能过剩)。

                • 家园 俺替熊猫兄弟解释解释吧

                  固定成本/可变成本好像是西方微观经济学中的概念。

                  可变成本指的呢就是生产1单位产品所用原料,人工和能源等的成本。这个成本会随着生产的数量增加而增加,比如熊猫举的例子里生产冰箱,一台是3元,100台就是3*100=300元。加上固定成本的700元,所以熊猫说“最大总成本是1000”。问题是再往下熊猫就开始耍太极了,俺笨,搞不懂,等他来解释吧。

                  虽说郎咸平专业是财务学,经济学的造诣应该像杨振宁的数学功底一样,怎么会轻易露出破绽呢?拍砖也得打好基础,别颤巍巍举起来最后砸在自己脑袋上。

              • 家园 您的解释更让人费解

                冰箱的单位成本,只生产1个单位,就是703元,100%的运转率就是7.03元。70%的运转率就是10.04286元

                “只生产1个单位”,单位平均成本是700/1+3=700+3=703元;

                “100%的运转率”意味着生产100台,单位平均成本是700/100+3=7+3=10元;

                “70%的运转率”意味着生产70台,单位平均成本是700/70+3=10+3=13元。

                “扩大产能一倍”“仍然70%的运转率”意味着生产140台,单位平均成本是700*2/70*2+3=10+3=13元。

                请问您那漫长的小数点后几位是怎么算出来的?

                关键词(Tags): #产能#单位成本
                • 家园 Excel cut & Paste 的下场……

                  全错了……

                  呜呜,看来算option的时候实在不适合搞这个management accounting的东西。

                  • 家园 不是吧?

                    所谓产能过剩,其实就是天朝的制造成本降低了。

                    数可以贴错,这么荒谬的结论也是转贴错的吗?

                    想挑战专家权威,很不错,可也得先做好自身的准备呀。前面河友lucre88说你“拍狼你还未够班”是很有道理的,像俺这种一知半解的都看出你的基本概念和逻辑错误百出,真的明白人就更懒得来凑热闹了。最后你的楼中只剩下口水,西西河缺水吗?

            • 家园 按熊猫兄的常识

              多出来的50台产能的人力设备,不用发工资,还设备贷款,还能降低单位生产成本,从而提高企业的竞争力。

      • 家园 关于二元经济

        这个过冷过热的概念还是可以接受的,但是郎并没有认真的细分清楚.郎的这个报告有点奇怪,不象是搞财务出身的行家说的话,难道是在演讲的时候,他的思维也控制不住自己的嘴巴了???感觉他坐下写的比站着讲的要好

      • 家园 尽信人言不如不信人言。为此花之。
      • 家园 拍郎重在坚持,要坚持不懈,长期稳定的拍下去

        要彻底费掉郎某的轮子功

    • 家园 拍的好,我送花等你再来拍他

      个搞财务分析的还当起宏观大师来了.

      最可恨是指鹿为马,迷惑我广大人民.

    • 家园 花不是白送的,喝完水接着拍

      熊猫身体壮,正是好劳力,不能偷奸耍滑学别人喝水挖坑。

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