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        • 家园 乌有是个很cheap的地方

          乌有众散了,都被北京的炒作公司收编了,据说,十万个回帖一千块(天涯)。什么五毛,老年头了,现在就值一毛了。

          关键是,原来有地方,提供电脑,网络当水军,现在后台老板倒台了,到网吧还要自己按小时掏钱,别提多惨了。

          你要不信,去天涯发个“我家小宝贝长得好可爱”的帖子,就会收到策划公司的无数短信,和他们聊聊,感觉很有喜感。

    • 家园 on BMO

      Banking financing cost is too low now. European and American capital inflow has artificially depressed the 5-year Canadian treasury rate, making it still marginally profitable to lend money at 2.99%. You need to talk to bankers in Toronto, esp., those high-level ones. Low-level staff have no clue, but they are now under tremendous pressure, esp., in the retail lending and commercial lending divisions.

      Canadian banking industry just repeated the American experience in 2005-2006. so is the housing bubble. The only good thing is that the Canadian shadow banking system is much smaller and Canadian regulators are not sleepy. Therefore, bubble deflation could be much less painful.

      As to Romney, I have pointed out long time before that he will be the final contender.

      But he is going to face a divided Republican constituent base and I am not sure whether some Republicans will vote for a Mormon.

      If he wins, America's fiscal bomb could be fixed a bit earlier. And America will regain its global dominance earlier. Maybe by 2020, America will come back to what it was in 1992.

      If Obama wins, which seems to be more likely, America's fiscal bomb will continue ticking at an even faster pace and Obama will be the destroyer of the American empire.

      By 2016 or 2017, we should worry about another major global financial crisis due to this idiot talker of changes.

      • on BMO
        家园 这次不敢苟同二位了

        原来俺是真的烦这个08. 咱们老中都是老实干活的人,平时工作最烦就是这种光卖嘴皮子的,尤其是08这种律师出身的,嘴皮子耍的特别好,但好像又没有什么料的。

        再一看08这三年,只干成了三件大事:Bailout华尔街,全民医保,伊拉克撤兵。平均一年一件。但这些大事,甚至包括其他小打小闹的小事(mortgage refinance,失业救济金延长啦),对美国大多数中产阶级的生活来说,真是屁用都没有。Mr.Change, 结果有有钱更有钱,嘛change都没有。

        所以半年前,俺们周围都是怨声一片,那时大家对GOP的候选人,真是望眼欲穿。盼星星,盼月亮,只望能来一个真的能change的。

        结果,十几场GOP辩论下来,大家都消停了,俺心里也凉了。Romney是个成功的商人,或者说是买低卖高的能手。如果炒股票,我选他。但选总统,光靠flip financial assets,那还不如直接选原来高盛的Paulson呢,人家直接干过财政部,还拯救过08危机呢。

        而且这老兄开始摆出对移民和少数种族一副势不两立的架势,作为GOP候选人,做个强硬样子没什么,但拿出要完全否决Dream Act的劲头,我开始怀疑他是不是有点不懂国事了。

        然后他最得意的turn around的杰作:Massachusetts, 但靠的是其中一点就是:猛砍地方政府的财政和教育支出。他是把州的财政赤字减少了,结果就是local county 和 地方政府大幅增加property tax,然后州大学学费在他当政的时候,四年涨了63%,这个速度和江爷爷的教育扩展后的学费狂涨有一拼了。

        剩下几位GOP,不说也罢。。

        所以等听完所有GOP候选人准备如何杀气腾腾的change之后,然后08把Insourcing law 拿出来,俺们没有选择了,只能转身就又加入DEM阵营了。

        因为不管是不是为了选举,这个insourcing是不管DEM还是GOP里,真正的第一个对美国骨子上的change。尽管Mr Change 以前食言,但现在改也行,毛主席他老人家教导过:犯了错误不要紧,改了就是好同志嘛。

        关键词(Tags): #http://view.talkcc.c
        • 家园 as to Romney

          1. campaign talk can not be trusted. Rommney is famous for flip-flopping.

          2. when you really sit on the chair of the president, you have to change your mind and be really responsible for the whole country. Bush Senior promised no more tax in presidential campaign, but in the 1989 Tax Code, he still raised tax rate to fix the dire fiscal situation of America. That change of heart costed his reelection, but he did do the right thing for America.

          BTW, U.S. tax codes has too many deduction/credit loopholes. The gov. can keep low rate, but still raise revenue through getting rid of those loopholes.

          U.S. corporate income tax is already the highest among OECD nations. US gov. need to lower rate and work hard to crack abusive tax shelters now.

          3. Romney is first Bain Capital consulting partner before switching to the PE business. PE business is not simply the buy low and sell high model as you see after 2004. Traditional PE business demands lots of managerial improvement as well as expertise on tax, law and industry knowledge.

          I had friends working for both McKinsey and Bain. I know those are really smart people with rich experience. Of course, if their talents are used in the wrong place, those are big trouble makers.

          4.*Romney is an insider of the finance industry. All insiders know that a USD crisis is looming in the background now due to the quickly increasing national debt.

          At certain point, global investors will dump dollars and flow into foreign capital market if American keeps on doing what it is doing now. I put that time around 2015-2016. As soon as the European crisis is TRULY over. We should worry about the next USD crisis. I show you the accumulated federal gov. deficit at each year end:

          2001: 3.2t

          2008: 5.3t

          2012(included new budget info): 10.2t

          You can see how fast debt has accumulated in America in the last 4 years under Obama. It is almost 1.2 every year. Of course, 2009-2010 is not Obama's fault, but he pretty much spent money like Bush, another drunk fool and shows little sense of responsibility.

          Right now, only Chinese, Fed and U.S. social security fund are buying the new U.S. federal debt.

          Finance insiders know if USD loses its global reserve currency status, then all game over. AMERICA WILL LOSE LOTS OF PRIVILEDGE, THERE WILL BE MASSIVE CAPITAL OUTFLOW, MASSIVE INFLATION, SOCIAL UPROAR. America will degrade itself into a 2nd tier regional power.

          UK lost that priviledge once in 1950s/1960s. It ended up with 2 decades of decline and high inflation.

          而且这老兄开始摆出对移民和少数种族一副势不两立的架势,作为GOP候选人,做个强硬样子没什么,但拿出要完全否决Dream Act的劲头,我开始怀疑他是不是有点不懂国事了。--capitalists need talents to earn profit for them. They will not kick out those smart software engineers in California. Capitalists are least discriminatory people because they care about profit only.

          Let me tell you the dirty tricks by Obama against Asians, okay? In 2009, Obama needed to polish the unemployment rate. He noticed that if non-green card holders are lay-offed, they would not be kept in the statistics as "unemployed and actively looking for job". So his staff pushed all Wall Street firms to lay off FOREIGNERS FIRST, no matter whatever their level, skill, merits. Lots of innocent competent people lost their jobs and some incompetent Americans stayed just because they are citizens with voting power.

          It is totally against the principle of meritcracy in America.

          Bank of America even recalled their offers WITHOUT DUE EXCUSE AND COMPENSATION to international students in 2009 and gave those offers to American citizens or greencard holders.

          Wake up to see the dirty side of Obama. 08 enjoys 玩阴的, he usually did exactly the opposite of what he said. China has learned a lesson from his foreign policy in Asia against China.

          Chairman Mao used to say that he enjoyed dealing with Republicans more than the Democrats, because Democrats often appear righteous with dirty tricks on the back. Please refer to Ben's posts on JFK on this forum.

          然后他最得意的turn around的杰作:Massachusetts, 但靠的是其中一点就是:猛砍地方政府的财政和教育支出。他是把州的财政赤字减少了,结果就是local county 和 地方政府大幅增加property tax,然后州大学学费在他当政的时候,四年涨了63%,这个速度和江爷爷的教育扩展后的学费狂涨有一拼了。

          --another option is to let your gov. hijacked by those highly-paid gov. staff unions like in Wisconsin. Then you enjoyed a Greek-style gov. bankruptcy and EVERYONE LOSES in the end.

          Be careful in what you wish.

          Property tax is against imposed against rich people and middle-class since it is imposed on WEALTH, not income. I think the gov. did the right thing, because RICH PEOPLE SHOULD contribute more to the gov.

          Of course, Romney can increase sales tax--but that's going to hurt poor people, since sales tax is a REGRESSIVE tax.

          再一看08这三年,只干成了三件大事:Bailout华尔街,全民医保,伊拉克撤兵。平均一年一件。但这些大事,甚至包括其他小打小闹的小事(mortgage refinance,失业救济金延长啦),对美国大多数中产阶级的生活来说,真是屁用都没有。Mr.Change, 结果有有钱更有钱,嘛change都没有。

          --Bailout华尔街--total disaster. He was fooled by his staff. Nothing changed at Wall Street. He was too stupid compared with FDR. FDR changed the whole finance industry with solid regulation, he achieved nothing bECAUSE HE DOES NOT UNDERSTAND HOW TO REGULATE FINANCE INDUSTRY AT ALL.

          --he did achieve something on medicare reform. Good job.

          对美国大多数中产阶级的生活来说,真是屁用都没有。

          --his votes do not come from middle class. His policies benefit mostly the low-income group (e.g., refuse to cut on social welfare outlay) and super rich people (whom he could not touch because his staff protect rich men).

          Middle-class is his taxation source. If your household income is above 250k, then you are favorite victim of Obama. Rich and superrich have little EARNINGS INCOME, they mostly have capital gains, which is very favorably taxed.

          BTW, modern-day favorable tax treatments (e.g., long-term vs. short-term, low rates on all gains) were first introduced into the tax code by Bill Clinton in the 1998 IRS Restructuring and Reform Act. haha.

          因为不管是不是为了选举,这个insourcing是不管DEM还是GOP里,真正的第一个对美国骨子上的change。尽管Mr Change 以前食言,但现在改也行,毛主席他老人家教导过:犯了错误不要紧,改了就是好同志嘛。

          --*没有实际工作经验的人,不会有能力 achieve anything. He needs to fight his staff and civil servants first. Those are two tricky groups already.

          通宝推:大山猫,amazon,修身齐家,muilho,Levelworm,
          • 家园 是Wisconsin

            是Wisconsin , 不是你拼的那个。。。

          • 家园 老兄的意思是,欧洲的危机会完全过去?

            就这个问题请教一下兄台的看法,谢谢!

            • 家园 no, it will break out

              sporadically for several years.

              But Dragi is a crazy guy and dares to do anything he wants. So it might be a controllable crisis, rather than a 1931 banking depression in Europe.

              • 家园 能不能再分析一下?

                主要是和我个人有些关系,所以不可不查^_^。老兄对其它许多问题的看法与我惊人一致,因此您的意见就相当于我自己的意见了,我会仔细研究一下的,谢谢!

                我感觉欧洲人这次心很齐,除了一贯的搅屎棍英国,其余26个国家全票通过财政自律的协议,效果怎么不知道,但这样的信心就已经比黄金还要珍贵。要知道这其中不仅包括欧猪国家,还包括另外2个搅屎棍波兰和捷克,着实不容易。

                且欧洲大局没有崩溃,德国健康的很,法国虽一只脚踏进了债务泥潭但尚能稳住局面。欧猪国虽然民众仍然懒惰和抗议,但政府却认真着手按照欧盟的要求进行改革,也算是一大亮点。

                总体上,欧盟也算是知难而上,也算是了不起。而不像美国,时刻准备赖帐、军事讹诈、QE-N。

                >>sporadically for several years.

                不好意思,没有完全理解您的英文。意思是几年内断断续续爆发小危机?

                • 家园 did you see news on Spain?
                  • 家园 Iran cut oil ouput to Spain

                    and 10-yr bond yield is back to the neighborhood of 6%. Add 20% jobless for young people and we have a very nice candidate for country-in-stagnation.

                • 家园 my reply below

                  我感觉欧洲人这次心很齐,除了一贯的搅屎棍英国,其余26个国家全票通过财政自律的协议,效果怎么不知道,但这样的信心就已经比黄金还要珍贵。要知道这其中不仅包括欧猪国家,还包括另外2个搅屎棍波兰和捷克,着实不容易。

                  --then Spain backfired again... hehe. Unison is achievable when Germany still has growth and money. When recession hit Euroland further, you will see more cracks. haha. 26 nations, with all kinds of selfish intention and different languages.

                  且欧洲大局没有崩溃,德国健康的很,法国虽一只脚踏进了债务泥潭但尚能稳住局面。欧猪国虽然民众仍然懒惰和抗议,但政府却认真着手按照欧盟的要求进行改革,也算是一大亮点。

                  --April will be French election. Hollande will be elected and France will turn left. Its fiscal problem will worsen and the alliance with Germany will be retested.

                  Greece will have election in April. Crazy greeks could throw you another big surprise...

                  总体上,欧盟也算是知难而上,也算是了不起。

                  --too early to draw that conclusion. But they did learn the lesson from 1932. During 1932, France stabbed Germany/Austria and nobody cooperated with anybody. They then all got toasted by the Nazi Germany...hehe.

                  而不像美国,时刻准备赖帐、军事讹诈、QE-N。

                  --I HAVE TO SAY THAT THE CURRENT STABILITY is totally driven by the artificial QE created by Dragi. Please check ECB's balance sheet size now. You will be shocked.

                  >>sporadically for several years.

                  不好意思,没有完全理解您的英文。意思是几年内断断续续爆发小危机?

                  --yes. Portugal deficit, Spanish banking system, Italian recession and fiscal black hole... the list will go on.

                  I was squeezed by Dragi's QE-1 and 2. But I do not think Germans will allow him to abuse his power very long.

                  • 家园 19世纪法国牵头的拉丁货币同盟也是信心满满的

                    我们janitor是罗马尼亚经济学家,马克思著作读的可熟了,老人家愤恨的指出,要不是因为拉丁货币同盟被法国人涮了,罗马尼亚早就比德国还发达了。

                    历史再重复一次很容易的,大家读历史的感觉就是人类没有从历史中学到任何东西

          • 家园 Good comments, 但是

            你讲的有道理,Romney 是确实比08有经验,而且办事能力也强。他如果做总统,大概WS很难像忽悠08那样,去忽悠他。

            But to be honest with you, 我认为就算Romney比08强,如果他选上了,如果他想改什么,也是无力回天了。

            因为最好改革的时候就是在08-09的时候,当时民意和政治条件都在,08完全可以玩一把狠的,把WS给收编了,结果我没想到的是,他反而被WS给忽悠了,当时俺气的吐血的心都有。而GOP 反而跳出来动不动要Audit Fed,拯救美元,所以后来好多像俺这样的恨铁不成钢的都投到GOP那边了。

            但现在不成了,掀桌子的时机已经不在了,民意,congress,等都分散了。只能徐而图之,只能慢慢来了。现在就是Romney 是不是这个新的Mr.Change,能慢慢的改。

            但最关键的是,Romney 的态度已经很明显了:他根本不想任何真正有意义的金融改革。 这个是我知道很多中间派(包括我自己)放弃他的主要原因。他不但不是Mr Change,而且是梦想复古到2008年危机前的政策。

            正如你所指出的:Romney是financial insider,按理说,他应该非常清楚这里面的猫腻,应该知道如何下手。而我仔细听过他全部的纲领,他没有任何要进行金融改革。 而且恰恰相反,他反对现在已经极其有限的金融改革, 他甚至认为华尔街已经被政府管的太多了(Quote: The level of over-regulation and burden which has been placed on the financial services sector I think is unnecessary and will cost us jobs down the road), 而且他要推翻Dodd-Frank reform, 那个所谓的reform对除了不许他们自营之外,其他完全是装个样子,就这样Romney还要推翻,按河里的流行语就是:Romney的屁股坐的太明显了。

            而Romney的对外政策基本上是小布什的翻版 (至少他在十几场的辩论都是这样说的:坚决不从伊拉克撤军, blah blah),我当时想,伊拉克每天好几亿美元的军费,他不会要我们叫property tax 给他补吧? 因为Romney 理财一招就是:cut 州或者地方政府补助,然后联邦政府账面好看,他到时是有钱打仗了。至于地方就神仙过海,自己想办法从老百姓挣钱吧。这招当年要闯地理阵的老朱也用过,所以可以臆想一下结果了。

            所以我想你也同意,美国照现在这个样子走下去,早晚的事。不变是不行的。Romney 虽然过去有一张漂亮的理财表,但是他现在的主张和他过去的理财观是完全风马牛不相及了。相比同样是GOP 候选人:Ron Paul 和洪大使,Romney 不光没有什么继续改革的意思,而且连现有的改革都要推倒不认。而以前的路已经是走不通的了,所以Romney最后的前景不看好也是可以想象的了。

            至于要补tax hole和降税,这个实话说:很难说是Romney的主张,还是Ron Paul的,或者洪大使的。而且08可以很容易也列出一些他的提案来拿credit了

            所以, 虽然我不喜欢08,但看了romney的主张,实在是不能因为他反08就投他了, 或者只因为他反对而支持了。

            虽然说他可能现在说一套, 上台后做一套,但小布什那个虔诚的基督徒实在给大家的阴影太深了,romney这个虔诚的摩门徒我就不赌他了。

            • 家园 small issue小布什那个虔诚的基督徒实在给大家的

              Bush Jr. was not the president, 2001-2008. Dick was.

              It was the Cheney administration together with bunch of naive inexperienced radical extremist fundamentalists Jews that managed the U.S. during that period.

              You even pointed to the wrong person for blame. Bush was a puppet, his father knew that so well and Bush senior also hated Dick so much too.

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