主题：【老拙侃股票101】第48周汇报 ——11个月浮盈104% -- 老拙

至于利率，现在各银行都叫嚣着市场化。目前市面上6个月银票贴现率从年前接近7%已经跌到了5.5%左右，这一个意味着他已经低于银行同期贷款利率的下浮极点（商业银行最多可在基准下浮10%）。市面上资金供应量还是很充足。至于一月份信贷规模，其实每年的上半年永远是超额度的。今年由于担心下半年的信贷收缩，所有企业尽可能把贷款在一，二月份转贷，所以一月份的高并非是新增信贷多了。

如果加快升值，沿海将有大批企业倒闭，原因是新劳动法实施后，企业用工上平均将多支付10%--15%的开支，如果再升值5%--10%，企业凭空多了20%的成本，再加上原材料价格一直上升，企业短期内无法将出口价格能提升20%以上。所以企业只有倒闭或内迁。所以过快的升值我认为国家肯定不会采取。

赶走热钱，关键在于终止人民币单向升值的预期，也许缩小人民币波动空间甚至回到固定汇率，哪怕不跟美元，跟一揽子货币的固定汇率也是个暂时解决办法。

复通胀问题，我们格子组怎莫看？

家园

我国的通胀的主要部分是输入型的

同比增速比较高

您想说明一个什么观点？我没有看明白。

复我国的通胀的主要部分是输入型的

家园

不懂宏观经济,只知道...

我国的货币发行得太多太烂,M2多达41万亿,远超GDP,通胀包括两个层面:1.CPI 涨;2.股票/地产等资产全面涨.

中国政府很重视控制CPI,那么只能让股票/地产先涨后跌,消灭一定数量的货币来吸收流动性,同时让人民币生值减少外贸顺差,减少国际热钱进入.瞎猜的.

复通胀问题，我们格子组怎莫看？

家园

或者观望一两个月再有动作？两难哪

michael_pettis也倾向于2,3月份CPI将更加惊人

管理层做什么都不好．或者会选择无为而治？

Bad numbers, but China still prefers to hesitate-michael_petti

A lot of January inflation has been blamed on the effect of the recent weather crisis, but I believe that much of the weather-related price increases didn’t show up in January and are more likely to show up in February. I should also point out that some Chinese analysts are warning that certain industries whose prices have been frozen (or for whom price increases are subject to approval) may have concealed the true extent of price increases, so the CPI number may actually understate inflation. At any rate, according to the press, Deutsche Bank and Goldman are warning that inflation may go as high as 8-10% in February and March.

Not surprisingly the analyst community is split on will-they-or-won’t-they. Some are expecting a rapid return to interest rate hikes, reserve hikes, and tougher lending constraints, while others think that the authorities are unlikely to move before March or April, until we can get the first set of economic numbers uncontaminated by the effects of the weather crisis and the Spring Festival, and after we have a better sense of whether or not the US economy is likely to slow enough to affect the Chinese economy in a significant way