主题：cited article, 中国除了不断地说“不”之外 -- parishg

Actually, I realize that even domestic Chinese officials can not give specific description of this term.

Washginton Consenus is the propaganded term of the Republican wing of free market believers. It works for US to some extent, but was a disaster for Asia in 1990s.

You are talking about delinking money and wealth. How do you think Feds like that idea?

-- you did misunderstand how the system works. It has nothing to do with the decoupling between money and wealth. For Fed Reserve, it is merely a Dr/Cr. adjustment to reduce outstanding currency.

Oh, BTW, I do not think China elites will fundamentally reform the current system. The financial elites of US and China are much much closer than you wish them to be. The end result will be merely a great bargain between the two sides.

For them, nationality does not mean much, as well as national loyalty. You will understand what I mean 10 years later.

Let's wait and see the "history" of the next 10 years.

Beijing consensus is also a propaganda term. Whatever the "definition" if there is ever one, it means one thing: economy over ideology. More specifically, democracy, freedom, human rights, and all those lofty goals are subordinate to the objective of economic growth rather than a overriding factor.

You talked about Dr/Cr adjustment lightly. So why the fuss of QE2? That is also a Dr/Cr adjustment, only at drastically larger scale?

The the rest, like you said, let's wait and see. I don't think it will take 10 years though.

宽松的货币政策并不构成威胁的前提是世界经济增长乏力. 原材料价格随美元下跌, 以美元计价的大宗商品价格不变.

前提是联系汇率下的美元经济区不会收缩.

假如, 亚洲货币改与人民币挂钩, 人民币(对大宗商品)保持稳定, 兑美元汇率随美元下跌而上升. 美元贬值的副作用将由主要美国来消化.

将本国货币与美元挂钩的国家可以调升汇率, 避免进口通货膨胀的威胁

美元依然是主导性的货币, 人民币只能见招拆招.

未来的十年, 美国必须在做一个选择:

1. 以保持市场的开放为代价, 输出通涨. 这就不能要求人民币升值. 中国是美元帝国的一部分, 与加州没太大区别.

2. 贸易保护主义流行, 要求人民币大幅升值, 保留通涨.

2008年的金融危机, 进而演变成经济危机, 与2006年到2008年人民币升值20%有直接的关系.

我的看法是(2), 美元兑人民币将有一个快速贬值期(每年贬5%-10%).

此人的文章只见于博客，其他网站多是转载。

出处s.com/gb/10/11/13/n3083610.htm]大妓院

中国说“不”，管用了没有？

去看看WSJ,NYT，再说

负资产不能花了

送花成功，可取消。有效送花赞扬。感谢：作者获得通宝一枚。

参数变化，作者，声望:1；铢钱:16。你，乐善:1；铢钱:-1。本帖花:1

from haiguinet. Some people claim that he was the former deputy mayor of Tianjin.

BTW, I do not care what is his current political affiliation. But he does raise a very good point for china: how to lead the world by proposing an alternative monetary system to replace the current Bretton Woods 2. To gain global leadership, one nation needs to give a better system to the world and to maintain prosperity and growth.

There is one very good economist article last week. I strongly recommend it here.

http://www.economist.com/node/17414511

It mentioned SDR, or gold standard again or other alternative design.

On this forum, there is too much curse and name-calling, but nobody seriously is proposing an innovative way to go out of the current dilemma. Any criticism of china, even a constructive one, is a big taboo here.

Any criticism of china, even a constructive one, is a big taboo here.

“But he does raise a very good point for china: how to lead the world by proposing an alternative monetary system to replace the current Bretton Woods 2. To gain global leadership, one nation needs to give a better system to the world and to maintain prosperity and growth.”

Key point!!!

这是许多人立论的基础.当然,那样很多新兴国家就会爆掉.但是,我看到某人的一个有趣的分析.说美国的金融衍生品市场捆住了美国的手脚.

大量的衍生品的设定的前提是利率不超过5%,过了5%美国要先爆掉.

我无能力做分析.

will not happen for at least 10 years. USD will experience a long period of weakness against major Asian currencies (though not necessarily against Euro).

it is deja vu of 1970s.

USD needs weakness to inflate away liabilities for gov, corporations and individuals. And last time it took more than 10 years to achieve that. There will be enough time for all major banks to adjust their exposure to various derivatives.

When US economy came back again with new innovations and solid growth, interest rate increase becomes a natural outcome in line with the interests of the financial industry. Anyway, the current weird yield curve structure makes it very hard for banks to earn interest income from their main business. Their trading income has been severely constrained by the Volcker's rule.

There are all kinds of interest rate derivatives for several decades. Those derivatives are not today's invention. But in 1995, Fed did start to raise interest rate. As you say, 那样很多新兴国家就会爆掉.but, Americans are quite selfish here. They care more about their own national interests only.

BTW, my impression is that Fed and major bank heads have constant info exchange through various private channels. Fed and Treasury actually know quite well what is happening at major banks.

这个跟帖者不知是什么来头，我专门去查了相关网站，可以确认，这个说法不确。而且，胡少波同学的主要发文的基地就是大纪元，这可能引起大家的一些质疑。我想老兄不应由此得出上述结论吧，这个bbs里批评中国的并不少，但站在美国的立场批评中国，确实很难得到共鸣。

我不认为目前中国现有的模式可以谈得上是一个共识，或者说是普适的。从另外一个角度来看，如果中国能够有节制地使用自己的力量而不是走帝国主义的老路，那么就已经是一个巨大的贡献了。