主题：【原创】数字来说话--为子玉兄的美元理论做注解 -- 种植园土
看了子玉兄精彩的美元系列，也读了hullo兄的不同观点
预测美元是比较困难的。过去几十年美元几起几落，是最不易捉摸的货币之一。所以，hullo的观点也是不乏道理和历史依据的。
然而，历史不会简单地重复自我--就象布雷顿森林体系解体之后，谁也无力恢复纸币与贵金属直接的关联--美元假如失去唯一的世界货币地位，那么想捡回昔日辉煌是万难的。
大的背景下，分析只能靠数据。以下数据来自联储：
美国联邦政府：财政支出3.6万亿美元，财政收入2.2万亿，赤字1.4万亿美元；大项支出包括：军费7000亿，政府医疗计划8200亿，社会福利7200亿；国债余额14.35万亿美元，占GDP比例98%。利率每上涨1%，美国联邦政府利息支出增加1435亿美元。
州及地方政府：财政支出3.3万亿美元，财政收入2.3万亿美元，赤字1万亿美元，债务余额3万亿美元。
政府财政总支出（联邦、州、地方）占GDP比例46%，政府财政赤字占GDP比例16.2%。
贸易赤字7000亿美元，其中3500亿来自于中国（美国统计数字，统计方法与中国有出入，主要是第三国进口数据调整不同）。
石油进口每年耗费4600亿美元。
美国总债务（居民、企业、政府、金融机构）55万亿美元，8200万个家庭平均分担68万美元。其中个人债务16万亿美元，每家庭债务20万美元。金融危机以来，美国储蓄意识增强，每家庭平均储蓄余额达到6000美元。
更糟糕的是，由于大量baby boomer进入退休潮，预计医疗保险体系及社保体系亏欠资金的现值达到115万亿美元，平均到每个纳税人头上102万美元。
基于以上数据，请大牛们告诉本人：
不贬值不通胀，如何支付债务？如何维持军费开支的同时，不降低居民现有生活水平？如果通胀，又怎么维持美元币值的稳定？
如果贬值，怎么避免big bang或者small bang?--比如，进口石油是美国的大项开支之一，假如美元贬值一半，那么石油至少贵一倍，美国人石油支出就要从4600亿增长到9200亿，这个支出增加足以触发新一轮的贬值。几轮搞下来，就是一个small bang了。
如果人民生活水平急剧下降，华尔街最憎恶的一人一票民主制度下，会如何反应？如果大力缩减军费，全球后果如何？
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Small bang,相当于一轮快速贬值30%左右。这个是最值得分析和准备的。
那个刘军洛说的也有些道理。美元即使贬值也未必是直接就贬，有可能是先升后贬。经济危机肯定会爆发的，只是以何种形式爆发了。
按理说，如果欠债55万亿，而收入仅2万亿，早该破产了，但美元在全球流通，被外国人拿走了一部分，维持了美元的地位。
国债在14万亿多，55万亿是全部公私债务加在一起。
资本回流后所有问题一次性全部解决。
不管他的理论是怎么推演的。老实说他的文章无法看懂。
第一:从2010年开始美元没有暴力暴涨，连80都没有摸过。所谓两年暴涨到130，还有一年时间将彻底否定。
第二：黄金是中国老百姓的坟墓，跌到300。事实证明大错特错。
其错误，根据你我的理论，是可以确定无疑的。而事实将证明我们所依据的理论，是正确的。
本轮美元回升也是力有不逮。连78都没摸到。先升后跌，这个升都那么吃力。还在大势作空欧元的情况下，我已经写了可以看到其孱弱的样子。
升也没多大空间了。美国只有技术性违约再来拉抬一下，那是真的饮鸩止渴喽。
这样的数据，说明了需要一个大的收割才能完成，谁能倒下去填这个窟窿？填不了，就是战争，这就是世界的不幸了。
全球性资本狂欢后危机的到来，谁能首先冷静下来，主动缩水降速，谁就能多一份存活的希望。
只是觉得他说的华尔街准备了大量的流动性，这个我是信的。墙街资金短缺很久前就解决了，但对外投资、贷款还很谨慎，积累流动性是必然的。
黄金的事他说的结论貌似也有些道理。只是同样看不懂他的逻辑。但是砸到300就是纯扯淡了。
战后美元强势的基础（1）美国的黄金储备；（2）美国的工业与科技力量--那还是通用、福特、克莱斯勒生产全球70%汽车的时代；（3）其它国家要么打仗打烂了，要么还在从农业痛苦地向第二产业爬。
现在的美国是个寄生性很强的国家。内部对有选票的某些族群妥协得一塌糊涂，对外对所有的民族都霸道得一塌糊涂--包括对欧盟在内。二战时期那个自信自立自强的工业霸权已经不见了。强势美元的基础不存在了。
二战时美国国债达到GDP的120%，但此高点之后再也没有出现过--朝鲜战争、越战、里根的大扩军备时代、第一次海湾战争，国债占GDP比例不过50-70%左右。但今天的美国已经到了100%，而且看不到降低的迹象。
所以美元贬值的大趋势是不会错的。
说起美国人遇到的麻烦，很多人都会马上想到反恐战、财政赤字、金融危机、以及现在浮上台面的债务违约危机。其实，在我看来，这些都是暂时的的现象，真正会让美国万劫不复的恐怕是更深层次次的危机。
一、美国的政治体制危机
毫无疑问，美国的立国者为美国制定了一套比较先进的宪法体系，这也是美国人引以为豪的：一部宪法用了200多年还没过时，虽然其间有一些修正案对原法做了不少修改和补充。我觉得这既是美国的长处，也是她的致命缺陷。
美国的两党政治玩到今天，已经快玩不转了。正是因为这个两党政治的框架，让其他小党很难在大选中有多少作为。我们看到，很多民主或多党制选举的国家，一个小党的作用往往不可小视。比如日本和英国，大党需要与小党联合，才能成为多数，这时候，小党也可能是举足轻重。由于历史和选举制度等诸多原因，这种小党或第三、第四势力左右政局的情况，在美国难以出现。相反，就像92年的大选那样，与布什所在共和党理念相近的Ross Perot参选总统，反而帮了布什的倒忙，让共和党的选票分散，民主党的克林顿坐收渔利。这种情形在各种选举中屡见不鲜，因为美国总统大选中使用的赢者通吃的选举人票制度。
也是因为这种选举人票制度，普选票多的人不一定能当选。虽然美国历史上这种情况很少出现，但这并不表示问题不严重。比如，如果你是纽约州或加州的共和党人，你把票投给本党的候选人肯定是张废票，在密西西比州的民主党人也有同样的尴尬，以此类推。这也是很多人不去投票的原因这一，以至于有50个州的美国实际上只是10来个州决定谁入主白宫。
另一个问题是，美国的大选要先有党内初选，而美国人的投票率可能是世界上最低的国家，总统大选只有40-50%左右，初选更是少得可怜，15-25%。想想看，这种现象背后的结果是什么？那就是，不到1/4的铁杆党员推选出两党比较极端的人物出来竞选，而那些温和的、比较能被大多数选民接受的候选人，却没有机会在本党内出线，因为他们的主张往往不能鼓动那些有热情在初选中去投票的激进派。久而久之，美国政坛上能杀出重围的多了不少投机分子政客，少了一些政治家。
二、美国的道德和人文危机
过去几十年，美国的中产阶级的比例越来越小，穷人越来越多，原因可能是多方面的。经济的发展不尽人意是一个方面，但还有很多美国自身的因素。
首先，美国人不太重视制造业，而把目光集中在可以快速暴富的金融业，很多有智慧的人都去华尔街玩钱去了。不仅如此，他们还利用他们的超过一般人的智商，搞起坑蒙拐骗的那一套，对社会大众造成损害。
其次，美国人游手好闲的越来越多，而传统的艰苦创业者越来越少。很多人宁可在家吃救济，也不愿意出去打工，因为美国的福利政策助长了不劳而获的思想。
据统计，美国现在新出生的孩子已有超过40%是年轻单身妈妈所生，这些人中很多是未成年的女子在没有结婚的情况下先生了孩子。她们这种过度自由化的行动，不仅对自己的事业造成不可估量的损失，也为下一代埋下的失败的种子。这些人大多生活在贫困线以下，不同程度的接受政府的救助，有的甚至坐吃现成，几代人都成了社会的巨大负担。这种情况在人口众多的大都市更为突出。
我们必须承认，美国人是很具有同情心的，也很慷慨，他们对本国和世界的捐献是任何其他国家比不上的。然而，善心如果不能被合理地使用，也会挫伤善人的积极性。我经常听到老美发出这样的感叹：我愿意把自己的钱拿出来帮助那些需要帮助的人，但不愿看到越来越多本可自食其力，却越来越依赖的人。看到政府食品眷被用来买烟、卖酒，心情轻松不起来。
三、美国的工作危机
资本主义的自由贸易有时也会产生很困惑的结果。资本家的目的就是为了赚钱，扩大再生产，所以，资本的流动也就是哪儿有钱赚，就往哪儿去。过去十来年，美国有很多工作机会都转移到海外去了。美国老板把工厂搬到中国和其他劳动力相对廉价的国家和地区，这已经造成美国制造业的萎缩。还有美国很多大公司，虽然家没搬，但人却雇用他国的，比如软件行业，比如用电话服务行业，他们的很多雇员都是来自印度、巴基斯坦。无怪乎美国的失业率居高不下。如果在短期内没有新的职业诞生，美国人能做的工作只会越来越少，失业率不高才怪呢。
令人啼笑皆非的是，一方面美国人没工作做，另一方面移民却能在美国大显身手。基础研究领域一直是由移民挑大梁不说，连受人尊重的医生这个行业也有相当大的比例来自国外的医学生，更不用说那些赚钱少的苦活、累活、脏活了。
美国每到经济不景气的时候就拿移民来开刀，实际上这也是政客们的伎俩这一，好像屡试不爽。去年亚利桑那州所通过的移民法案就是这个问题的集中体现。如果美国没有工作机会，移民也不会冒着生命危险闯关。美国的富人或中产阶级总要有人来服务，又不愿付或付不起高额的费用，或者即使愿意付高额的费用也不一定能找到理想的人帮做家务。美国的穷人人穷志不短，不愿降下身段来为他人服务。这种情况下，合法和非法移民就自然而然很有市场。美国人应当感谢这些移民的贡献，否则，他们的生活不会有今天这么好。我以前作为移民给美国老板打工，今天我作为中产阶级也享受着新一代移民为我服务。看看那些搬家公司的伙计，看看那些帮你清理大街、割草修树的工人，有几个是土生土长的老美？
四、美国的人口危机
美国的人口比例也正在发生着激剧的变化，富人或受过良好教育的人不养或少养孩子，而那些没钱养或没条件养好孩子的家庭却一个劲的多养。养孩子有时甚至变成一种产业，父母可以通过多养孩子而得到更多的零花钱来买酒、烟，甚至毒品。呜呼哀哉，还有什么比这更让人难过的呢？
因此，美国的人口比例会变得越来越接近发展中国家的水平，即有知识有文化的人越来越少，文盲白痴越来越多。这里要顺便指出，美国现在实行的是12年义务教育，否则情况会更糟。即使上学不要花一分钱，还是有很多人不上，或者即使上了，也没有真正学到该学的知识。
没有人才，国家怎么能发展？也幸亏美国这么多年来有移民政策，还可以吸引别国的优秀人才。不过，日本人、台湾人以及很多东南亚的人已经不怎么来了。一旦美国进一步衰败，中国人就不来了，印度人也可能不愿意来了，欧洲人更不会来。还有谁来？只怕到时候只有非洲和墨西哥人还会来。真到那个时候，移民就不会帮美国太多的忙了。
五、美国的民主宪政危机
上述各种危机最后会导致美国的民主宪政危机。据统计，现在美国大约有40%以上的人是完全不缴税的，其中很大一部分是由另外一些缴税的人直接或间接养活的。要不了多久，这个百分数就会上升到50%以上。这是个什么概念呢？就是说任何用选举来决定的事这些人说了算。这些靠别人养活的人在国家的大政方针上他们说了算，他们是国家的主人，谁也不敢得罪他们。说得再清楚一点，就是，这些吃福利、吃救济的人不允许动他们的福利和救济，由于这些人手中握着选票，谁也不敢提消减福利开支了。这样，美国的赤字只能愈来愈高，税也会越来越高，能交税的人也越来越少，形成恶性循环。试想，到了那一天，美国是个什么样子？富人或辛苦工作的人把自己的劳动所得拿出来养活别人，自己还没有发言权，世上有这么傻的傻子吗？美国真的会出这样的活雷锋？我想不会。真到那个时候，这些富人们，这些聪明的人们要么逃往别的更好的地方，就像当初他们从别处逃到这儿那样，要么就会彻底砸碎现行的法律制度和联邦机构，重起炉灶，因为美国现有的法律和政体将走到尽头。
美元的贬值和升值可能同时存在。所谓贬值是指相对实物商品贬值，所谓升值是指相对别的主要货币在未来一段时间内可能会升值。这种现象的背后就是基本上所有货币都会对实物商品贬值。如果说没有别的取代美元的全球性的货币或者交易媒介，（黄金太少了，不可能，所以黄金也可能会是一个泡沫），那么大家只能接受不断贬值的美元，这就是美元相对实物商品不断贬值的底气所在。至于相对其他主要货币升值，只要美国相对不那么烂就好了。要达到这个，多搞搞危机，多敲打敲打冒头的就好了。
will come and must come.
1. Bush tax cut will expire. All rates will come up automatically, on capital gains as well as ordinary income. Currently, we only get one-year extension.
Obama will have to raise tax after election. If he does not, the next Republican president will have to do it--esp., if there is strong pressure from Europe with its competing currency.
Last time it was Bush Senior who raised tax after election. His campaign slogan is "Read my lips: No new taxes". And finally he still raised taxes in a desperate fight against German Mark in late 1980s.
--And he is a die-hard REPUBLICAN. Today's republicans are just performing political show.
2, tax code reform: mostly in various tax expenditures--it is a very technical term, and it is NOT gov. spending.
Congress has put various tax incentives on the table for cut. One is the mortgage interest deduction--it is like a tax shelter for rich Americans. To eliminate this tax expenditure itself, you will save 100b in 2010 and around 140b(in 2013), according to some Treasury studies.
100b is 1/14 of the 1.4t deficit here.
BTw, we can also eliminate the tax deduction for home equity line of credit. Another "tax expenditure" there to encourage excessive living.
BTW, Congress can also eliminate the State Income tax deduction. Another "tax expenditure" hidden in Schedule (not in the form per se). Another 20-40b every year in tax revenue saving.
If you consult your tax accountants, you will see many tax loopholes are there in the US income tax code. Some are kept there intentionally, some are results of mistakes by legislators (e.g., 401(k)).
If you want to raise tax revenue, filling in these "small holes" can save you tons of money.
Another trick: eliminate DEDUCTIONS and converted them into 10-15% tax credits. Very small technical change, but bring in at least another 100 billion of additional revenue from RICH AMERICANS.
Canadian gov. first introduced that dirty trick in late 1980s (under Mulroney gov.) to balance budget. Hehe, very very smart--because it only hurts the rich families, WITHOUT EVEN RAISING any marginal tax rate.
3. 美国联邦政府：财政支出3.6万亿美元，财政收入2.2万亿，赤字1.4万亿美元；
--very good point. But annual deficit will not always be 1.4t--that's a recession year data.
大项支出包括：军费7000亿，政府医疗计划8200亿，社会福利7200亿；
--According to David Walker, former GAO head, the most serious challenge to budget is actually medicare Prescription D). You should focus on that part--That's a true cancer. American gov. will have to eliminate the lobbying from AARP(老不死协会) and DRAMATICALLY CONSTRAIN/cut Prescription D benefit--that's also David Walker's main target.
Welfare will be cut and Democrats will give concessions soon--just wait and watch the news.
国债余额14.35万亿美元，占GDP比例98%。
--98%. This number depends on definition, and various calculations will give you various ratio. Net debt/GDP ratio will be lower (gov. is using social security surplus to buy gov. debt since Clinton Administration). USA still has large social security surplus every year now (on the contrary--Shanghai gov. is now has large deficit from its SS fund and need to allocate ANNUAL OPERATING BUDGET money to pay pension to average Shanghainese. My parents are just some of those receivers. You just need to read the news in Chinese--my point--Shanghai's SS is in even worse shape).
As Hullo said, US's advantage: 二是最不坏. So compared with most EU nations, in terms of debt/GDP ratio under OECD definition, only Germany is better. France and UK are close. All others are worse than America (actually Spain has lower debt/gdp ratio--but its treasury yield curve is heading towards disaster now).
利率每上涨1%，美国联邦政府利息支出增加1435亿美元。
--Very good point! Actually, American financial elites already worried about that since 2007. Greenspan has made it very clear: 10year note rate above 5%, absolute disaster for America.
My estimation: 4.5% is already red zone and 4% is warning level.
Next Question: Can American Fed/banking elites manage this 10year rate below those thresholds to avoid squeeze on US gov.--based on past 3 year record, I will say I have confidence in their "dirty" tricks.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^TNX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
When the rate touches 4%? woow, early 2010. Then Euroland crisis starts. Do not worry--global capital will be scared into holding US treasury bonds for a while with a slow drama in Euroland. It will be in America's best interests, if the Euro drama played for another 2 years--and it will, because all Europeans are kicking the can along the road.
ECB knows clearly that Euroland's problem needs POLITICAL solution from Germany and Germany WILL NOT OFFER it (last time Germany also sabotaged European exchange system in 1992 by behaving selfishly and crashed Italian/Finnish/UK/French currencies). History is just a lesson and IT REPEATS. Just watch the current German PM.
Key tip: Portugal, Greece, Ireland, Italy are all on the road to banking destruction. Spain--may be the 2nd stage candidate. Key: check their treasury yield spread. You are smart, you will figure out what I mean. (BTW, a recession is also looming in Brazil. It will come. There are too many bubbles in so-called emerging markets.)
As we enjoy our chat in North America, thousands of Portugals/Greeks/Irishmen/Italians/Spaniards are driving their hard-earned CASH into Germany/Switzerland and UK...The implosion of PIIG's banking system is happening day by day. When Big Bangs finally arrive, Europeans will be shocked to see that all their rich people have fled to America/Canada/Norway/Some Asian nations/Switzerland, together with their massive capital...
Key statistic: interest cash outflow/budget revenue when you analyze sovereign debt status. Absolute number is not meaningful. In 2010, the US fed gov. debt service rate is around 9%. Still quite safe, as good as Canada. Canada is now a AAA nation.
4. 州及地方政府：财政支出3.3万亿美元，财政收入2.3万亿美元，赤字1万亿美元，债务余额3万亿美元。
--Absolute numbers do not make sense. Debt/GDP ratio is key--as 井底望天 always say. Another key indicator is interest expense/total budget revenue. Most states are required by state constitution to balance the budget, and their debt issuance capacity is often limited. But if those state gov. change constitutions, then some problems will go away.
Let me pick one state you might live in (NJ) and then compare with another Province in Canada (where there is MUCH MORE BUDGETING FLEXIBILITY TO PROVINCIAL gov.). I only have data up to 2009.
Moody09Rating Pop GDP debtfromDeficits/gdp
New Jersey AA- 8.7m 474.9b 10.8%
Quebec (CA) AA 7.5m 284.9b 32.4%
My point: a richer province in States with MUCH LESS debt load has EVEN LOWER credit rating than a well-known debt-ridden Canadian province! If you read US newspaper about the state budget crisis in NJ as claimed by its popular FAT governor, you will easily believe that NJ is hopeless... While it is more a show by the governor--NJ has large capacity to borrow. And its current annual interest exp/tax revenue is only around 2% (in Quebec, it is 15%-excluding fed free money).
BTW, I forget to mention that according to OECD definition, Quebec's Total Debt/GDP ratio(if federal debt allocated to the province) is 94% in 2009. ONLY the following nations/provinces have Debt/GDP ratios higher than it.
1. Japan 172%
2. Italy 114%
3. Greece 102% (we now know this number is a BIG LIE)
4. Iceland 96.3%
Last time when I was in Quebec (early this year), people were cheerful and in party mood. Crisis? Not one single Quebec Canadian believes it...
Summary: When you list data, you need to use KEY STATISTICs.
5. 政府财政总支出（联邦、州、地方）占GDP比例46%，政府财政赤字占GDP比例16.2%。
--one year data. Not the same for next 10 years. And adjustments are coming: crack on public sector unions, cut on education budget, hike for tuition...
6. 石油进口每年耗费4600亿美元。
--very good point!!! Short term solution: shale gas movement (Please drive to Pennsylvania, North Dakota, Colorado...)
--America still needs to control mid-east and suck the cheap oil from them
--Only hope is energy revolution.
7. 其中个人债务16万亿美元，每家庭债务20万美元。金融危机以来，美国储蓄意识增强，每家庭平均储蓄余额达到6000美元。
--American family now has the same debt rate compared with Canadian family (Canadian trends up and American trends down). Both are still in orange zone, not red zone. Most lending rates hinges on 10-year treasury rate--let's wait and see how Wall Street play magic.
8. 更糟糕的是，由于大量baby boomer进入退休潮，预计医疗保险体系及社保体系亏欠资金的现值达到115万亿美元
--David Walker is lobbying Congress heavily now, so are some wise men from previous administrations. 医疗保险体系--as I said, key is the Prescription D benefit. Cut MUST COME!! Curse the AARP!
社保体系亏欠资金--is a joke, based on various assumptions. It is not a problem at least for another 15 years. America is still enjoying annual surplus now.
And elites are playing dirty with "SS contribution base". check this,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Security_Wage_Base
key column: wage base--very very trick American gov. It never changes the rate, 6.5%!
Other tricks that could be used:
increase retirement age;
tightening qualification to receive benefits;
eliminate inflation indexing;
intentionally using underestimated inflation index for adjustment (1970s).
Buddy--those elites are dirtily smart.
7. 不贬值不通胀，如何支付债务？
--definitely inflation will come. Inflation is Fed's best friend. But it must be mild, not runaway ones. 1970s will revisit America. That's why I am buying gold and do not trust dollars.
如何支付债务？--if the world is turbulant enough (and will be given the forthcoming Euro debt crisis), then printing new money to repay old debt is not too difficult. Currently, it is clear that Japan and China will not commit suicide by dumping dollars, so wait and see how it plays out.
贬值通胀--is coming all to nations. All fiat currencies are trash, some are more trash-like. And all fiat money depreciated against gold in the last 10 years. Some depreciate more against pork, such as our beloved RMB, ^-^.
If we are not president/prime minister, the correct question one should ask: HOW TO PROTECT MY PURCHASING POWER AND MY WEALTH in this dangerous world??
9. 如果通胀，又怎么维持美元币值的稳定？
--ever since we have the fiat system, 币值的稳定 is a joke. It is never in the FEd mandate. Fed's mandate is to stimulate economic growth and fight against "inflation".
Who defines inflation? The U.S. gov.!! In China, it is the Chinese gov.
US gov. intentionally CHANGED THE DEFINITION OF BOTH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND INFLATION under Ronald Reagon in early 1980s!! Why people do not check the history? It is there.
US CPIs in 2007 were all jokes. Actually all CPIs since early 1980s are jokes.
So is China's recent CPI reading! (oh, my god, I should self-censor myself by giving this line. 你的帖被举报2.1.4 涉嫌恶意损害、诽谤中伤、诋毁他人声誉；散布谣言。--but is that truly a 诽谤???).
Key: Fed is intentionally managing a slow inflation process. It is playing all dirty tricks to hide the truth: mild inflation is eating away American's purchasing power EVERY DAY. 币值的稳定 IS A JOKE EVER SINCE THE GREAT PRESIDENT PRESIDENT REMOVED USD FROM GOLD STANDARD AND DEPRECIATED IT BY AROUND 30% in early 1930s!
It is there in the history.
10, 如果人民生活水平急剧下降，华尔街最憎恶的一人一票民主制度下，会如何反应？
--人民生活水平急剧下降--人民生活水平下降 happened and is happening. Necessary cost after a crazy credit expansion. It happened in 1970s, during the high inflation-high unemployment period.
US gov. can only alleviate the pain of average Joes(prolonging unemployment benefits). Pain in recession is inevitable, it is a necessary evil in a business cycle. Most previous credit crisis in States history resulted in 5 year of stagnation on average (I mentioned that in another post). This round of recession is very mild compared with the history.
--The mass voters are easy to manipulate. Anyway, monetary policy is not in their control, not even in Congress control. Never mind.
--一人一票, no, president is decided by causus vote, not popular vote. Al Gore won popular votes by large margin, but still lost to Bush.
You know that clearly, so I guess your comment is purely out of emotion.
As founding father Benjamin Franklin said before, America is a republic and NOT a democracy. Americans just have the illusion that they have voting power to change. They do not. In early years, presidents were voted by Congressmen and senators.
Voters have put blah-blah talker Obama there. Anything change in Washington? hehe.
11. 大力缩减军费--Yes, America must do that.全球后果, while if all capital flow back to America and America returns back to late 1990s, shining again with POLITICAL STABILITY and new innovation financed by those "foreign investors", it is not bad for America.
Rule 1. Americans are selfish, very selfish. Americans maintain global order not for fairness, but for its own interests.
So should or were Chinese in Asia.
Rule 2. America has two oceans and two allies around it.
Final comment: we are both smart. As I said before, where talents put their ass signaled to you where they believe will provide best return/safety and growth opportunity.
子玉 despict America like a hell, an empire to collapse in the next year. It is not surprising to me since he has put his ass in China. 因为大部分人的观点都是跟屁股有关 (of course including me)，能够超越屁股看问题的智者这个世界不太多。(zt from Blah blah)
But I am surprised that you chose NY and are still so pessimistic about dollar. To be frank, in the next 5 years, the most worry-free currency will be the dollar in North America (US and Canada--anyway, two closely linked nations with closely linked currencies).
Final advice: buy gold for your pension account. Do not sit on cash only. Do not trust ANY gov., because any gov. is a liar. All of them are going to use inflation to rob you off, some are more aggressive, such as 津巴布韦, some are still pretending, such as US gov. and China gov.
In the end, it is your SAVINGS AND PENSION NET EGGS, that will guarantee a cheerful and happy retirement life for you. Patriotism will not pay your retirement benefits and medicare bills, esp., according to the historical performance in one Asian country.
Of course, if you are the big boss as the PM, president, minister, then your life will be different. Thumbs up here.
经济预测的东西，可以当作心灵鸡汤文章来看，那篇看了感觉好，干活特别有力气，生活特别有兴味，就多看看，至于真相如何，反正最后咱们都要死的，干吗不得过且过活得开心点。(zt)
--hehe, relax for fun.
BTW, only robust economic growth will save America, as well as its federal and state fiscal situations. And such growth can only be pushed by technological breakthroughs. We have to live with 10 years of global turmoil.
wait and see.
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but based on various scenario assumptions.
The estimate on medicare part is reliable, but the forecast on SS is a joke.
Trust me, the 55万亿 hole has been dinner table talk ever since early 2007. Financial elites are not naive about the serious situation.
美国是不好，日本呢？欧洲呢？依附于美欧日发展的各国呢？要么是本身更糟，要么是大国倒霉，它更糟。相对而言，中国算是好的了，但较好的中国，已经快成了全球公敌了。
看问题一定不要孤立地看，一定不要静态地看，要多做比较，再进一步地做动态分析。投机大师索罗斯有三大定律可以参考一下，一是开放性社会，二是反身性，三是测不准。（大致如此，记不太清了）
简单地比较一下世界主要国家和地区的经济状况吧。
欧元区，除了实现了统一，欧元解体就是不可避免的，而在现行的体制下，欧洲统一是不可能的，那么各国发展的失衡，将导致欧元的解体只是时间问题了。德国的经济状况是欧元解体的关键，现在德国经济较好，一是因为欧元的存在使德国的贸易更便利，这是德国不愿欧元解体的最大原因，二是全球化，特别是中国的快速发展，使机械装备发达的德国产品大量出口。但德国的经济不会一直好下去，中国的科学技术发展必然会减少德国产品的进口，当欧元带来的好处比欧元带来的麻烦更少时，德国就会考虑抛弃欧元了。欧元一旦解体，必然引起世界经济和全球金融市场的动荡，美国就会成为最后的避险地，美元的霸权就会更加不可替代。
英国，不加人欧元区真是英明的选择，但英镑就如英王一样，更多的成为了一种象征。英国这个老贵族，也成了美国的跟班，可以看做美国力量的一部分。
日本，一方面被美国阉割了，另一方面患了严重的自闭症，因为索尼用了三星的面板，日本人就不买索尼的彩电了，从自尊走向了自虐，还是自己跟自己玩去吧。
印度，最大的优势就是精英们会说英语了，但软件的出口和呼叫中心的业务并不会形成自己的产业体系，依附性的发展，爬的再高，最多也只是藤蔓，成不了树木，更成不了森林。印度经济的特色，就是长有藤蔓的灌木丛，成不了气候。
巴西，世界杯和奥运会集中举办，很可能是西方国家的阴谋，能挺到奥运会开完就算不错了。巴西是中国经济高速发展的第二大受益者，（第一应该算澳大利亚）但除了原材料出口和足球，巴西还有多少优势呢，这几年足球也不太行了。
俄罗斯，现在已经成了土财主，除了有很强的自我保护能力，比巴西强不了多少。
美国的债务，是美元债务，大部分债务又是内债，这种债务与发展中国家的债务完全是两回事，发展中国家的债务主要是外币债务，主要是外债，可以说，发展中国家的债务才是真债务，发达国家的债务更多的只是数字问题，日本的债务比美国更严重，又经历了地震海啸和核危机，也没有怎么样嘛。
美元贬值，别国更贬值，美国通胀，别国更通胀，这就是世界的现状，这是个比烂的时代，而总是站在高地上的美国，就成了最不坏的。
就说大致说到这，有机会再详细谈谈美国和中国的经济状况。