主题：实体经济的困局,是缺钱吗? -- cgangcm

市场经济如果真能做到优胜劣汰那到也确实起到产业升级的作用，问题是优胜劣汰的背后是许多人生活无依以及由此可能引发的社会问题

就像前一阵子人民日报发文《反腐非反职工福利》，作为曾经国有企业的一员，我要说反腐是好事情，反正只要不是既得利益都支持，但是附带的反腐的结果很可能是真正的腐败分子还没死，底下干事的员工已经活的很艰难了，有人说够吃够喝就不会造反，那就当我没说。现实的情况是既得利益就像是癌症，国家有多少资源都优先被他们占据，资源不足他们还会优先占据其他人的资源，如果不能定向把他们除掉而是通过简单的紧缩，其结果就好像要饿死癌症病人体内的癌细胞 ，先死的往往是正常细胞（不过目测最近好像研究出了可以饿死癌细胞的方法）

产业升级也好经济危机也好本质上是资源的流动和再分配，但是过去发展形成的坏账必须有人买单，最好的就是谁形成坏账谁买单（或者极端点谁有钱谁买单，毕竟形成坏账的本人往往也买不起单），次好的就是以邻为壑中国的问题其他国家买单，最差的就是利益集团没事全民买单（通胀）。本来经济危机其实就是第一种情况，问题就是我前面说的，既得利益之所以叫做既得利益就是因为他能共通过各种手段把成本转嫁到其他非既得利益身上

老板投资失败跑路自杀，底下的员工呢？中国毕竟是个农业人口占大多数的国家，更何况大规模的城市化才进行了一半，已经城市化的农民不愿意回去，没有出来的也要出来。

如果不能承受大批员工失业的后果优胜劣汰就无从谈起，因为势必有人以此绑架国家。

看国家政策目前就是一方面尽快让农民富裕起来（方式有很多比如发子孙财的土地流转，比如确实提高人民福利的医保）。另一方面反腐，归根结底不让利益集团出血的改革都是海市蜃楼，不过安大算过一个账，

应该说中央的道路是正确的剩下的就是执行效果了

I know my language is wield and sorry for that, it is a "china model":

"毛林共识"政治模型下, 搞活经济確實有餘地, how to translate it into English? it is not a language issue, it is a 模型 issue; and this kind of "china model" is a challenge to everybody's brain.

now, "毛林共识"政治模型下, 搞汽车业经济和房产业经济

gpp 7% for how many years already?

despite of all kinds of capital waste and political corruption of 物理学奇迹 level;

but again, for whatever reasons, "majority" of Chinese people support TG's "毛林共识"政治模型下, 搞经济; 那咱继续搞(:), again, how to understand and translate in english this kind of 脑残 social science of "china model"?

this is why I keep saying, have your children study physics, English, yesterday, and you 搞 money under "china model", get it?

now, x&l wants to play the same game, and wants to play it better, do things such like "政府现在要做的就是培育汽车业和房产业的小米"

again, this is 林毅夫's copycat model, it will work to some extent, for industries such as 汽车业和房产业.

咱继续搞: 不搞冠军搞亚军

as I said, this "毛林共识"政治模型搞经济 underwritten by 林毅夫's copycat model will work to those low-to-mid tier industries, how far It can go? we don't know, but it looks like 搞活汽车业和房产业 which is basically 城镇化, another 10 years is a piece of cake.

then what is problem? the problem is likely 政治问题, I don't really know, just guessing.

fundamentally, TG top is forward looking, in terms of TGtop=information processing system for china, kind of like US capital market is a forward information processing system for the white world.

information processing is by its nature a fundamentally forward looking model.

TG top is looking beyond 搞活汽车业和房产业, or in trader's language, that part is already priced in.

what they are forward looking about? I don't know.

forward looking translated in Chinese:

今天搞王体超,爽啊, 明天搞李游泳?

1.

"集庆彪" raised this question, kind of indirectly.

now, logically speaking, I think TG top will not "把自身的利益凌驾在民族和国家利益之上"

again, "will"=we don't care about the past, we care about tomorrow.

then it is all about "毛林共识"政治模型

a challenge for TG top, fundamentally a change for Chinese nation.

kind of why "集庆彪" raised this question.

"这一阶层把自身的利益凌驾在民族和国家利益之上"?!

that may be a worldwide question.

get it, TG top?

2.

now, Chinese 人民 would not care that much, having been brain washed by "毛林共识" for how many years, now with its new version of china dream BS?

TG top would worry about whom?

TG top worry about the global capital market.

if TG top continues to play "毛林共识", then TG top has to pay a huge risk premium to capital, in terms of preventing capital out flow etc;

and in terms of 私有化, 用孩子喂狼;

now, capital market doesn't really care which way TG top is going, but they care what kind of options TG top has, and market will price them accordingly.

for TG top:

you either give me the damned 孩子, and I will take it;

or you guys as politicians get your ass out of my way: 宪政化, 军队国家化;

which way to go?

for now, X is testing out 用孩子喂狼.

3.

if not 用孩子喂狼, then let look at 宪政化, 军队国家化 option.

basically, in white's model, government as 守夜人, government will not get paid much, and you have to kiss capital market's ass just to get elected into office for limited terms, and not many 游泳 girl of national team for you to fxxk at your will...

as of today. it is almost impossible for TG top, or those next TG top to even think that way.

then, "集庆彪" may be right, and sing with me, "china dream".

to be brief

1.

more about "政府守夜人"模型

even TG top admits that in today's information sensitive and possibly quasi-quantum physics based global capitalist (or the name should be changed to information-capitalist) economy, 政府让市场 to manage 产业升级 etc, because fundamentally, even for superman TG top, it has everything, but no information, no models, to understand or manage business such as 产业升级;

therefore, a 理想环境 "政府守夜人"模型: government does not contribute much information at all for the system, therefore government should be paid only as a 守夜人.

and we know, everyday, even in mainland china, you have those information contributor becomes 资本家 overnight, with money saved from government, system can rewards those information contributor even more, often at high premium, and discounting any information lacking BS, whatever or whomever it may be. period.

2.

"毛林共识"政治模型

yes, uncle sam 亡我之心不死 (more of 政权更替 game than anything else, and even 政权更替 game is almost impossible for uncle sam to play it out, yes, never say never).

then, why Mao as a head trader shorted US and longed Soviet, and "all in", with his ass totally unhedged?

well, that was Mao's first international trade, understandable;

then, around year 2000, 中华邦联 of tw and 新加坡 opportunity, what 386 was doing then, fxxking that army hooker? understandable again?

with that "中华邦联 of tw and 新加坡", TG could build a huge Long China position 盘子 across almost entire Asian-pacific area, potentially a global game changer.

that is why I keep saying that Chinese nation as a whole lacks ALGO power, lacks a overall system to generate and grow ALGO power, in all the aspects of Chinese society.

"摸着石头过河" under "毛林共识"政治模型 is not an ALGO ("毛林共识"政治模型 is naked ass, still unhedged), it is not a modern system, it is a farmer's business model back in ancient china when Chinese farmers 靠天吃饭.

now, TG has "successfully" (?) modernized Chinese nation with Marxism and white technology, but china is still operating "毛林共识"政治模型, which is huge tax to the whole Chinese society, in terms of financial and all kind of 资源.

and most importantly perhaps, "毛林共识"政治模型 and with its all kinds of new "social science"derivatives of every day has been basically 脑残 Chinese nation.

overall, mainland china today=半封建, 半殖民地(Marxism and western technology), a global military power (global reach?) and economic power(global reach), and regional/ domestic political power?

kind of why Chinese elite send their money and kids mostly to US?

why? did we say TG top has been very smart? yes,

but TG is basically 内战内行 外战外行, and in today's globalized capital market, Tgchina's risk is at system level, and much higher compared to other major countries such as USA, as long as TG top is running "毛林共识"政治模型.

they have to.

those smart guys are not going to risk ass under "毛林共识"政治模型, naked ass, still unhedged and fundamentally a high risky model running the whole chines nation, "all in" again.

Unless, TG top can become a global market maker, have "毛林共识"政治模型 fxxled into white ass, all over the earth.

well, that may be a risk white has to hedge heavily, if 386 was not fxxking that army hooker and forgot to go to work the second day (:)

for now, it is a china dream, a domestic version inside GFW.

3.

why not "看准了, naked ass, all in"?

"witten1" did some posts on 测不准原理 and other qm posts;

basically, social system (a forward looking and a dissipative system) is even worse, even you manage to find a 边界 for the system, how about the degree of freedoms, and how about the coupling and interaction among those degree of freedoms?

I posted a little about how difficult it has been to build a qm model at 分子 (such as DNA) level: basically too many degree of freedoms, and coupling among them.

if you cannot really model a 分子 system, then how to model a human system full of TG and uncle sam and their troops(:)?

so the risk is inherent, and is hard to hedge, so what to do? never "all in", and go slow;

often Chinese people laugh at US system: how come you guys are so slow, if our uncle TG is here, he will get it done over night;

well, yes, you all in overnight, and when market opens the next morning, all those white wolves are staring at you with bloody eyes, with you in the center and totally naked.

is this where tgchina is now? kind of?

with Europe is zero growth, etc, tgchina's situation is not that bad at all, but never say never, and largely to hedge that nightmare scenario, X is likely continue to tighten up "毛林共识"政治模型.

""Information stays and moves around in a GR world, with "blackhole" included, 能量(信息)守恒, 霍金辐射=出来混总是要还的"

for now, 用孩子喂狼.

比如中国汽车产业，一帮买办跪舔外资搞垄断，既没有搞来技术，又没有带来大钱，20年过去，和韩国比比，这汽车产业算什么？

现在也不是没机会，比如美国的老马主动输诚，开放专利，这正中国需要的。马走后，开始查垄断，整治法西斯系外资车企和买办系合资车企。现在庆丰系旗下联通和特斯拉又开展合作（注意，和月月鸟的电力系无关）。看来这个方面老大思路还算清楚，也难得有老马这样的明白人。将来直接越过汽油车搞电动车，新技术新产业，既解决产业升级问题，又解决雾霾问题，还可缓解能源安全问题。对于老大，除了自家发财，也可整治买办系。对于老马，他正好缺钱，搭上中国这条线，有中资出钱修充电桩，还有中国的市场。对于中美两国，合伙干死法西斯系车企。话说特斯拉良心价，才70万人民币，法西斯系的车子一个比一个黑。总之，这个是多赢。

但问题是象老马这样的有识之士太少。

1.

"信息处理本质上是一个物理过程"

孙昌璞 信息处理本质上是一个物理过程( ↑0 ↓0. 1 ... ustc website, 段路明郭光灿量子信息讲座.

http://www.cchere.com/article/3844744

"在时空中 度量结构（距离）的定义 是个物理问题"

changshou: 几何直观地介绍广义相对论的时空以及大爆炸模型

http://www.ccthere.com/alist/3659016

2.

does everybody have to understand 物理? of course not, but you have to have top universities with top physicists;

and that top 物理 (世界观 level) information has to find its way into other social science areas of society.

I have talked about hedging as a 物理世界观;

and another "物理世界观": as a modern society, you have to have multiple information processing systems, for them to compete and sometimes to discuss with each other, to fight the dark war of the next day, when market opens in the morning.

and those multiple information processing systems are embedded into different social political and economic organizations independent of each other, not "coupled", so each of them could contribute valuable information to the system, and independent of each other, reducing 相关 risk, etc.

in that sense, white's 普氏 system of economics and politics, is just as important in terms of risk hedging, and it is a "物理世界观" concept, which is very hard for Chinese nation to comprehend, a nation with a 文科世界观 of 5k years, now that with that 文科世界观 having been updated on to Marxism level, by TG, and it almost sounds like a science.

hedging, balancing and "go slow"(if you cannot quantify the risk, how to hedge?)=社会物理学公理 #1.

how much Chinese nation has been paying for Mao's 1 person trades of international macros since 1949?

and the tricky part: Marxism does offer a very insightful view of social economic system, with its many pieces really look like a science, even a beauty, to some extent.

汉密尔顿ABC,陈王奋起挥黄钺, hullo, they all offered some good views of Marxism as a model.

but, like anything, Marxism has to be hedged.

Marxism propaganda as a 宇宙真理 embodied in 伟光正?

did I say china is still a 半封建 society?

3.

Marxism as a model still commands power, and most white never get it, and TG in a way did get it.

what is even more tricky is Marxism as a model could work from now on as a headfake to TG: faking TG top into a over self confidence trap, etc, accumulating more cost and less benefit of Marxism modelling, and they don't know it.

when a position starts eating into you, you either close it out, cutting loss, or putting some hedge. you have to do something, you can not just sit over your fat ass doing 惯性运动.

in a social system, a small and local risk could get out of control and snowball into a global risk, eating anybody on its way, bloody.

again, that is a "物理世界观", and TG top is basically a bounce of 文科世界观 politicians.

specifically, that is quite bit of risk there for chairman X, he had very limited education, and full of Marxism 文科世界观, like many of his red gen II buddies.

so, you basically have a bounce of 文科世界观 politicians all "coupled" together running a 文科世界观 nation without any other real independent information processing system whatsoever?

omg(:).

this is why I keep saying that start your children in physics and English, yesterday.

Chinese social science is full of "risks"(:)

4.

TGchina is a "all in one" top heavy information processing system, and at TG top level only.

I would think that uncle sam's all kinds of teams have been running all kinds of models, with one goal:

how to break this damned top heavy uncle Tg with his pocket full of money, sitting atop of mountain of full of risks, and almost at the edge of falling apart?

if he falls from top, everybody gets a share of his money, sounds good?(:)

feeling his ass a little 痒痒 or pain, chairman X tells his troops: run the damned "毛林共识" ALGO, shoot anybody who dares stand up on our way, whomever he might be.

omg, watch out, baby(:)

-------------

http://www.ccthere.com/alist/4048038

日本的情况， [ 集庆彪 ]

我只能从媒体中获知。这个国家对我来说是个迷。希望以后有机会去生活一段时间。

目前我在美国工作生活。就我在美国了解的情况来说，我还真没发觉这场危机对平民百姓的生活造成多大的影响。这应该归功于社会制度的完善合理。现在美国的经济复苏很快。回头看，2008年的美债危机很有点阴谋论的味道。有人说是美国主动刺破泡沫。在我看来，即便不是主动刺破，也绝没有刻意维护泡沫。

美国在2008年之所以放任泡沫破灭，从美国国内经济来说是为了调整结构，以迎接新一轮的科技产业革命。从这点上来看，美国的政治精英对国家的掌控是值得敬佩的。当我们中国人不屑地说美国是财团或资本控制的时候，请再思考一下（现在有很多人对事物的认识模式化，既浅薄又庸俗）。这一点有很多可以展开说的，但水平有限，时间也有限，还是留给牛人去评论吧。

从国际上来讲，我认为美国的决策层应该对危机的路线图有较清晰的掌控。现实的结果是，美国率先从危机中走出。日本已经、正在，欧洲马上要实行QE。而中国则陷入了巨大的资产泡沫，国民经济和社会政治被泡沫绑架。中国目前不得不小心地维护不让泡沫破灭（4万亿后，实际上中国已经打光了QE这张牌）。结合中国人口结构的改变，我很担心中国可能就此错过了产业升级的历史机遇。这个机遇是过去170几年中国无数的苦难和奋斗争取来的。我对这一认识并没有把握。历史会给出答案。

日本的利益，我感觉是和美国的利益在现阶段不谋而合的。日元大幅度贬值宽松其实和欧元区是一个道理。美国也希望这两个经济体能在现有的产业结构中挣扎生存，不要在新技术产业对美国造成太大的压力，而同时压制中国的产业升级。因为中国产业升级过程中主要的竞争对手是日本，韩国和德国。

可以说美日目前在经济竞争中处于非常有利的位置。而中国却要面对自己内部严重的政治和经济危机。中国现有的资产泡沫和虚高的人民币汇率给国内的权贵阶层以最大化的利益。而这一阶层目前掌控国家的经济金融政策。我的观察是这一阶层把自身的利益凌驾在民族和国家利益之上（这一点极其无耻，但同时又是中国的政治结构所决定的）。因此，在今后几年中中国有可能出现较大的经济危机。至于是什么时候，这要看全中国的资源还有多少可用于博弈的。中国政府无疑是目前世界上掌控资源最多的政府。但就像我在另外的一个帖子说的，别的国家赌钱，中国是在赌命。

基于这些考虑，以及习李上台后的种种措施，我以为我们需要警惕中国民族主义的威胁。说到美国的民族主义，我的体会是美国主流的思想是爱国，敬佩为国服务的军人。（插一小例：有一次下飞机时，机长说机上有几名现役军人，希望其他乘客让这些军人先下机。当这几个军人起立走向机舱口时，全体乘客和机务人员为他们鼓掌。）至于对政府，广大人民一贯持批评态度。

美国广大的受教育民众从小被教育要独立思考，珍惜自由和尊重生命。很难想像这样的国家会有失去理智的民族主义。更何况，现今的美国是世界民族的熔炉。各民族还在不断地融合过程中，很难产生高度统一的民族思想。这不同于二战前的美国，日本，德国，也有别于现今的中国。很遗憾地说，目前很大一部分中国人对人类文明的认识，对科学和民主的理解可能没有比54运动时有多大的提高。产生义和团和红卫兵的土壤并没有发生多大的变化。因此，我很悲观。另，我们现在的最高领导人的世界观是在文化大革命中形成的。这一点兄台有无察觉？

很高兴有机会和您交流。班门弄斧，见笑！

这种憋来源于过往体系的矛盾的积累。复杂体系下要解决矛盾真需要毒辣精准的眼光和果断的执行力，比对付坏掉的皮带扣或拉链扣要麻烦多了。。。期待掌舵人的智慧和动作。。。

另外，货币作为经济活动的关键工具现在看有着局限性，或许未来需要一种更完善的工具和机制。

要创造一个比老美更上台阶的文明，未来在很多方面都是需要突破和创新的，依靠现有的西方经济学的几把刷子是远远不够的。

1.

German is very rich with all kinds of manufacturing 产业链, 生物圈;

US is super rich with all kinds high tech, service 产业链, 生物圈

can US TPP make it to some kind of 产业链, 生物圈?

"美国的再工业化及TPP" puma2011

http://www.ccthere.com/article/4015089

2.

economic 生物 under 私有制 is basically "走夜路", I have personally done 实体经济 before, extremely hard, even harder than "走夜路"

3.

so where and how to get your information when "走夜路"?

economic 生物 survives by basically 交换相位信息 with each other, 生物圈;

why 相位?

kind of like 德布罗意相位波, 不是明显的波, but much rich in terms of information

明显的波 like 电磁波 is not worth your money, much less information, you have to know something less-public, basically.

4.

now, can government provide those kind of "相位" information? sometimes superman politicians like uncle TG will tell you he can, but where and how does he get that "相位" information all the economic 生物 are looking for?

no government can do it.

what government can do is trying to set up some kind of 原教旨资本主义 social economic structure, such like USA, providing some kind of 温度 environment, then all the economic 生物 of 私有制 type will all go there in a crowd, and they will set up a information processing system among themselves, basically a capital market, as their 相位场;

with that 相位场, they may feel confident enough that they can manage their risk and getting needed information to "走夜路".

and as we know, still a huge percentage of them will get lost, or killed "走夜路", doing any business is hard, even bloody.

5.

now, "毛林共识"政治模型 is fundamentally anti 原教旨资本主义

knowing that, TG top used to try 政治改革 trick and 打右灯, 往右拐

Uncle Sam: wait a minute, you guys cannot copy my models, containing china, 政权变更, etc;

Uncle TG: scared, more and more "毛林共识", and 打左灯, 往右拐

but those economic 生物 are not stupid, and actually they may be smarter than everybody else, in terms of economic and financial information processing for their own survival and growth.

they will ask uncle TG for a huge risk premium.

6.

Uncle Sam

state department: you guys work your ass off , get that TPP going somewhere;

CIA: what you "zero dark" team has been doing? where is fire and smoke? and any progress about 政权变更(:)?

Uncle TG: more and more "毛林共识"

"毛林共识" has likely become a pivotal point already for Uncle Sam to squeeze Uncle TG

7.

"中央的人并不是笨蛋", I totally agree, and I do think they have a good heart as well, but they have a "model" problem.

when you are put into a 爱因斯坦电梯, it is not about if you are a 笨蛋 or not 笨蛋.

you are just trapped, baby.

by the way, when 爱因斯坦 conducted that famous 爱因斯坦电梯"思想实验",he was inside (思想实验)that "爱因斯坦电梯", and he feels totally trapped, from there on, GR.

at the time, there was no 航天 yet, and 航天失重, "爱因斯坦电梯" were a purely 思想实验, 先验论.

爱因斯坦's super modeling power.

it is time for china to switch models, get over with "毛林共识".

can china manage to do that model switching with Uncle Sam squeezing TG from everywhere?

does TG top even know that they are trapped inside "爱因斯坦电梯" ?

that is why I agree that 中央的人并不是笨蛋, and at this point, X's top team's 屁股 are fairly ok (:?) too, if they fails, where do they go?

there is no where they can go.

and they will be facing Uncle Sam's constant short squeezing. tough.

8.

中央的人的屁股 may be a problem in the past, not now.

as the top elite of Chinese society, and as smart as they are, they have got a 物理世界观 problem, huge problem.

that is what I have been trying to say, I don't really care about their 屁股 anymore;

my model is independent of their 屁股(:), so I can be bullet proof, and hedge myself, because I have never seen 中央的人的屁股, and I don't know how to model 中央的人的屁股, so I kick it out as a degree of freedom from my model(:).

finally, I got to this point, and I hope I have articulated fairly clearly.

9.

now, can 中央的人与人民心连心, 屁股连屁股, yes, they can, but doing that for what?

although politically running "毛林共识", 中央的人 cares most about global capital market (now china a big part of it), they have no choice.

one a hooker, a hooker forever.

now we are on "hooker":

around year 2000, 中华邦联 of tw and 新加坡 opportunity, what 386 was doing then, fxxking that army hooker? understandable again?

How did TG top handle that 中华邦联 thing? any information?

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Feynman's Ants - MathPages

www.mathpages.com/home/kmath320/kmath320.htm

The solid wavy line represents the first ant's path. According to Feynman, the second ant follows the first path, but sometimes he “would go straight out, as if he ...

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南亚的问题复杂，并且正朝着与中国传统外交/地域观念极为不同、极为不利的方向发展。

8月30日我写了印度莫迪的主动出击 vs 远交近攻， 就意识到印度的不善和问题的严重，不过没有

想到问题的发展急转直下，对中国的发展非常不利：

1。5月初竞选时，印度莫迪不止一次扬言要对巴基斯坦“强硬”。但莫迪一当选，就于5月21日突然

宣布邀请巴总理谢里夫，到印度参加26日举行的总理就职典礼。巴基斯坦的总理谢里夫去了。

2。六月，缅甸取消中国的几大投资计划，说要从新评估。背后是日本安倍和日财团的影子。

3。7月，印度参与日美奥的军事演习，加入中国南海很多钻油业务，尤其和越南的合作。

4。8月底30日，印度莫迪绕过中国，第一个出访的是中国的宿敌日本。和日本签署大量的备忘录。

5。9月5月，孟加拉总理宣布，支持日本成为非常任理事国。孟加拉彻底和日本走到一起。

6。9月6月，巴基斯坦宣布：推迟中国国家主席习近平的到访。中国外交部发言人秦刚是在被记者

问起时，才不得不说：“一段时间以来，中巴双方一直就习近平主席9月中旬对巴基斯坦进行国事访问

保持着沟通，为此访作了富有成效的准备。鉴于巴基斯坦当前政局，中国政府和巴基斯坦政府一致同

意推迟习近平主席原计划于本月晚些时候对巴基斯坦进行的国事访问。双方正在通过外交渠道协商习

近平主席尽早访巴的新日期。双方强调，中巴是经受时间考验的全天候朋友。双方高度重视习近平主

席访巴，希望访问尽早成行，以促进中巴两国间的互利合作。” 拿中巴这类“兄弟”关系，都出事了。

to be brief

1.

and get over with "为人民服务" Maoism or Marxism.

For TG top collectively, "屁股决定脑袋" should never even been an issue, as said, and I have written so much last couple of day, that TG top has a 物理世界观 or model problem, and that big problem has nothing to do with their 屁股.

and in general, and collectively, it is safe to assume, that most political elite of most major nations are all trying working for the best of their national interest.

TG top 屁股: all dirty or all clean, it does not matter, it would not change their 物理世界观 ;

even if their 屁股 are all clean, and Chinese people all feel good, china's major economic problem are still here to stay.

why? because global capital market does not care about TG top 屁股, in doing their risk pricing.

and actually, with those all clean 屁股 TG top, the risk may be even higher(:).

making sense?

2.

刘亚洲's piece I quoted kind of helps

and I know it is hard to explain my logic.

but basically,

yes, "为人民服务" is Maoism's top philosophy of mao's social economic system design.

and yes, that is completely "wrong", unless china is isolated from global capitalism with its formation started post World War II, and 刘亚洲's piece kind of talked about that a bit.

and I have talked about that modern social economic system's top priority is to promote innovation and growth.

and because innovation and growth are rewarded with huge premium, 人民 often get "剥削: with hugely discounted wages.

and please be noted, this huge premium discount income gap is one trick of system's 动力学机制, as brutal as it is.

now, yes, you would have a diminishing consumer power issue, but that is a different issue.

unless china can totally isolate itself from this global heatbath, 资本主义热传导 into china is unstoppable.

and that makes TG top's 毛林共识 algo running even more 脑残 damaging.

3.

because the whole Chinese nation has been and is still brainwashed by "毛林共识", there has been a constant chaos of logic all over the place.

and as I said, even TG top knows the superior importance of global capital market for TG and for china, they cannot say it, and when they have to say something, they talk in the language and logic of "china model" with all kinds of 矛盾

and within that "china model"语言环境 filled with all kinds of logic 矛盾, people of all levels of Chinese society are arguing with each other all over the place.

that is why I keep saying that Chinese social science is full of "BS": it is basically a very confusing 语言环境 and 思想环境, created by "china model" itself.

and with chairman X periodically hitting button of 毛林共识 ALGO, all these 语言环境 and 思想环境 will be injected with all kinds of 脑残辐射, as I said many times before.

those 辐射, even if not 脑残, will consumes a lot of your brain cells.

so, what is the point?

TG top is facing a huge model problem, and they may not even have a clue about it.

but that model problem and its impact is seen in all aspects of Chinese society, period.

and it will get worse.

this is speculative, and the Russian piece I don't know much.

and to be brief, out of my limited reading and memory

1.

Russia's "lesson"

since soviet falling apart, and for a while, Russian's 普京 actually supported Uncle Sam in 阿富汗, etc, trying kissing the ass of Uncle Sam, and what Uncle Sam has been doing in return? NATO has almost expanded all the way to Russian's border.

when commenting on Russian's recent invasion of Ukraine, many America commentators acknowledged that "we over fxxked 普京".

yes, Russian still got some kind of 核潛艇 advantages over Uncle Sam, and may not want to give it up, 裁军不合作, etc.

2.

now, china.

Assume one day TG decides to give up on "毛林共识"政治模型, and go "white" and go "普世" politically, what would uncle sam do?

headfake first: we all welcome china to join the world of peace and prosperity, etc;

and privately, by the way, you china guys don't need to have an unfriendly and oversized military power, impacting regional military equilibrium etc..

then, and if you china 裁军不合作 etc, we will figure out a way to squeeze you, just like what we did to Russia.

and a friend just visited Russia: terrible inflation, and everybody was asking everybody: how about your immigration visa?

Russian has been slowly bleeding and fading away?

3.

and if I remember correctly, Russian/soviet union have never had a direct war with Uncle Sam.

and of course, with Soviet help and for whatever reasons, Maochina had a bloody Korean war with Uncle Sam.

and yes, Mao shorted Uncle Sam, longed Soviet right after 1949 victory, and all in, zero hedge, long before Korean war.

May be Mao was thinking when starting Korean war: well, I already fxxked you uncle sam in 1949, orally, now I am going to do it real (:).

and yes, Maochina indirectly fought against Uncle Sam in Vietnam for how many years?

老美记仇, who does not?

particularly, as a market maker, 记仇 is your job, and you have to make the other side pay you back zillion times more, so he remembers, and market remembers.

otherwise, you are not a market maker.

4.

as said, Uncle Sam will keep playing headfake to trick Uncle Tg, and Uncle Tg will never give up hope of buying out Uncle Sam by 用孩子喂狼, while 坚持"毛林共识"政治模型 algo running all the time, 24/7, they got money, and human troops of all kinds, just do it, at whatever cost.

and Uncle Sam will take Uncle Tg's 孩子, so Uncle Tg will get weaker and weaker, then one day when market opens in the morning, all the white and yellow wolves are right there, again staring at Uncle Tg with its ass naked at center, all with red eyes:

血债要用血来还, N年不晚.

never say never.

now, does TG top have a model for that N年 moment?

or 摸石头过河 again?

more likely than not: once a farmer, a farmer forever.

TG top started as a group of super smart farmers, and they 自学 Soviet 党校 textbooks and played their trades very smartly during world war II, and took over mainland china in 1949.

now their children, red gen II are running the show.

and it seems that majority of Chinese people of all social ranks respect their TG top very well.

习大大?

why not? a society's elite is always the elite of that society.

相对论方程一阶性.

• 中共毛泽东物理世界观尽头? 美军重返亚太, 兵临城下

kind of a quick and dirty analogy

1.

qm part

德布罗意相位波, with contributions from all 量子数, global, kind of like 市场信息处理 process

now, at some point

德布罗意相位波"相干", 电子出现概率最大, or some kind of innovation and/or growth driver are picked up or voted out by market, now these 电子/企业guys emerge out locally;

but without global information processing/市场信息处理 by all market participants globally, 德布罗意相位波"相干", 电子出现概率最大/创新成长企业 business models emerging out would not happen at all, or you have fake ones coming out

2.

now, with "毛林共识"政治模型 running Chinese society, you have to pay much higher risk premium to capital;

"

not only that, you have all kinds "毛林" 干部 faking out normal 市场信息处理, and producing all kinds of faking information, and fake 创新成长企业/business models

result: much higher capital cost, much lower capital return.

"毛林共识"政治模型 is a cancer in terms of china economic development. period.

but it seems politically, tg top thinks that china must go with "毛林共识"政治模型, period.

3.

"real"相位场, or 规范场 of more advanced version: prof Yang did a lot of pioneering work.

小强说的是大白话，就是要转型了，怎么转，大方向上有发达国家的样板做参考，再结合下中国的实际，也就是个山寨的过程。

对内发展第三产业，也是个物资再分配的过程，社会分工再细化的过程，让大家都有钱一些，不用搞得整个社会都为了钱疯狂的拼命了。

对外，工业还要拼，就是所谓产业升级，控制规模，提升质量，有些产业要压缩，有些要扩大，所谓结构调整。

这个过程搞下来，差不多10年就过去了，拼个中高端，下一个阶段，要拼高端，会麻烦些，不过也可以山寨，不需要去试错。

等高端拼下来，中国的人均还是达不到美国，要再冲上去，就要自己玩新花样，这就不好说会出什么问题了。

美国就业可不是制造业，不造手机可以通过卖手机增长就业。

另外，一个手机可以带动的产业大了去了，人们生活有多少都是通过手机进行了，这又增加多少GDP。

但房子没有，据说是因为土地是稀缺资源，但其实稀缺的土地主要是有历史积淀的土地，而这个历史积淀固然有无法复制的因素，例如历史遗迹，自然遗迹，但主要是，对大多数人是，可以复制的，可以用基本建设提高价值的，无非是同时建设医疗、教育、商业、交通设施，以及建设生产单位，增加就业岗位，例如浦东。因此，房子也可以做成白菜价，至少可以做成黄瓜价。现在房价这么高不正常，不应该。我们有极强的建设能力，有足够的未充分建设的土地，从这个方面下手，甚至建二十年人均也未必能赶上美日。如果不能这么搞，那真是无能了。

有些勉强。

手机的销售一般是在商场进行的，而商场就业毕竟不是只依靠手机。

手机背后的产业链长度和行业辐射范围，以及整体的销售规模还是没法和汽车，房子比。